The Air Force Falcons have a legitimate chance to go undefeated for the first time in more than a half-century. Only four college football games remain on their regular-season ncaaf schedule, starting Saturday (2:30 p.m. ET) with rival Army. The teams will square off at Empower Field at Mile High, home of the NFL’s Denver Broncos.
A majority of the betting public’s on the 17th-ranked Falcons, who are 18-point favorites (-115) and -1200 on the moneyline. Conversely, the Black Knights are +18 (-105) on the college football betting lines and +750 to win outright. The total has dropped from 36.5 to 31.5 (-110 Over, -110 Under), one of the lowest numbers on the board for Week 10.
Will Air Force stay hot? Or is it ripe for an upset? Let’s dive into the matchup and assess the Army vs Air Force betting odds.
The Army Black Knights are 0-4-1 against the spread over their last five games and 2-5-1 overall. Army is, however, 5-1 ATS in its last six games against Air Force. The total has gone Over in four of Army’s eight games this season. Conversely, the Air Force Falcons are 4-3-1 ATS, including 4-1-1 over their last six games. The total has gone Over in four of Air Force’s last six games. That’s important to remember when assessing the Army vs Air Force betting odds.
Falcons Still Perfect
The Air Force Falcons are 8-0 following Saturday’s 30-13 victory over Colorado State, one of eight undefeated teams remaining at the FBS level. The Falcons are No. 17 in the AP Top 25 poll, their highest ranking since 1998 (No. 13).
While Colorado State delivered them a scare, the Falcons, 14.5-point favorites, pulled away with 17 unanswered points in the second half to cover the spread for the first time since Sept. 30. They also went Under the total (46.5) for the second straight game.
Air Force remains heavily reliant on its rushing attack, which leads the country with 300.4 yards per game. Five different Falcons have rushed for at least 150 yards this season, led by fullback Emmanuel Michel (696 yards). Michel came up particularly big against Colorado State, running for a team-high 130 yards and a touchdown. It was his third 100-yard rushing day of the season.
Coming on the heels of back-to-back 10-win seasons under Troy Calhoun, the Falcons were projected for 8.5 regular-season wins. With four NCAA football games remaining, all against unranked opponents, they’re essentially a lock to cash in on that total. They’re also a -120 favorite to win the Mountain West Conference.
Nationally, the Falcons aren’t getting the same kind of notoriety. Despite being unbeaten, they’re only No. 25 in the first College Football Playoff rankings. On top of that, they’re not even on the board for the national championship odds. Still, there’s plenty left for Air Force to accomplish, including its first unbeaten season since 1958. It’s already clinched its third straight bowl appearance.
Air Force’s defense has helped fuel its huge season, ranking fourth in FBS in scoring (13.4 points allowed per game). The Falcons have given up more than 20 points just once in their last five games. Keep that in mind when analyzing the Army vs Air Force betting odds.
Black Knights Reeling After Upset
The Army Black Knights suffered their fifth straight loss last Saturday, falling 21-14 to UMass at home. A 10-point favorite, Army fell behind 13-0 after the first quarter and never recovered. They’ve now dropped four straight games against the spread and are 0-4-1 over their last five college football games.
At 2-6, Army needs to win out to have any shot at a bowl game. But that seems highly unlikely, especially with Air Force on deck. It also can do no better than match its projected win total of 6.0. The Black Knights have been outscored 102-14 over their last three games, two of them were shutouts against Troy and then-No. 19 LSU.
Army ranks 114th nationally in scoring offense (20.1 points per game). While some regression was expected given the turnover on its roster, its production — or lack thereof — has been particularly disappointing. The Black Knights are all but certain to finish with their first losing record under Jeff Monken since 2018 (5-8).
Quarterback Bryson Daily is the team’s leading rusher, with 470 yards on 111 carries (4.2 per carry). He’s also scored four touchdowns. The Black Knights are averaging 190.4 rushing yards per game, ranking 24th in FBS.
Notably this is Army’s last season as a football-only independent, as it’ll compete next season in the American Athletic Conference alongside Navy.
Handicapping the Game
Army has had the upper hand in this rivalry of late, with four victories in the last six NCAA football matchups. But much like last season’s meeting, a 13-7 Air Force victory in Arlington, Texas, the Falcons are fielding the better team. In fact, this year, it’s not really close.
The Falcons find themselves back in the AP Top 25 for the first time since 2019, when they finished 11-1 with a victory in the Cheez-It Bowl. This year is trending in a similar direction, maybe even a step above that. The Falcons have a legitimate chance to go undefeated.
That said, the 18-point spread might be a bit large for some bettors to stomach. If so, consider the total of 31.5. It’s unusually low, but the total’s gone Under in nine straight meetings between these programs.