Armed Forces Bowl Betting Odds: Baylor Bears Look to Ground Falcons

Baylor Looking to Return to Winning Ways in Armed Forces Bowl

This season didn’t go according to plan for the 2021 Big 12 champions as the Baylor Bears failed to reach the conference title game and rather than playing their way into one of the New Year’s Day bowl games, will be headed to Fort Worth to face Air Force in the Armed Forces Bowl.

Despite losing their last three games of the regular season, the Armed Forces Bowl Betting Odds lists the Bears as the favorite.

Baylor finished third in the Big 12 in rushing defense. However, facing Air Force’s triple-option offense will be a unique challenge.

The Falcons lead the country with 61.3 rushing attempts per game and 3,971 rushing yards. Only UAB and Texas Christian have more running plays of 30 yards or more than the Falcons.

The total opened at 47 but has moved to 49 so keep an eye on future movements as the game draws near.

Game Information

Short Travel When Baylor Bears Go Bowling

Air Force has won its last four bowl games, including two against teams from Power-5 conferences while Baylor is 4-1 in its last five bowl contests.

Baylor joins Fresno State (Cure Bowl), North Texas (Frisco Bowl), Louisiana (Independence Bowl), Texas Tech (Texas Bowl), Florida State (Cheez-It Bowl), Texas (Alamo Bowl) and North Carolina State (Duke’s Mayo Bowl) as teams playing bowl games in the same state that they are located in. That is just one of the reasons that the Armed Forces Bowl betting odds favor the Bears.

Air Force receiver Cade Harris has been sidelined since early November. For Baylor, receiver Gavin Holmes is questionable, running back Taye McWilliams and tight end Drake Dabney are both out.

Some numbers to consider when looking at the scores and odds college football, After going 10-4 against the spread last season, Baylor has covered in only seven of its 12 games this season. Air Force went 8-4-1 against the spread in 2021 and is 6-6 ATS in 2022.

Bears Ready to Wrap Up Tough 2022 Season

Perhaps further proof that statistics can be deceiving, Baylor has the same rankings in total offense (fifth) and total defense (fourth) in the Big 12 that they had a season ago. The difference is that in 2021, Baylor won the conference title and in 2022 the Bears limped home with a 6-6 record. Still, the Armed Forces betting odds are favoring Baylor.

The future could be in good hands with freshman running back Richard Reese needs 38 yards to hit the 1,000-yard mark. It has been slow going late in the season with just 171 yards over the last four games. Sophomore quarterback Blake Shapen has had his moments, but he has three TD passes and five interceptions over the last four games.

Baylor allowed more than 200 rushing yards in three of its last seven games and that included Texas rushing for five scores the last time Baylor took the field. That could be a concern against the Air Force running game.

Roberts Has Falcons Soaring

If Air Force quarterback Brad Roberts had 10 more rushing yards against Boise State, he would be coming into the bowl game with 10 straight 100-yard games. He is still coming into the game with 1,612 yards, the most by a Football Bowl Subdivision quarterback since Navy’s Malcolm Perry ran for 2,017 yards in 2019.

Sophomore defensive lineman Peyton Zdroik has five tackles for loss and 3.5 sacks over his last four games. He leads a defense that has allowed the fewest yards per game among Football Bowl Subdivision teams this season. Air Force has allowed less than 200 yards in three of its last five games. The Falcons have allowed touchdowns on just 10 of 25 trips to the red zone by the opposition, one of the best marks in the country.

The Falcons won their only game against a Power-5 conference team this season, limiting Colorado to 162 yards. Baylor figures to offer a much tougher challenge than a 1-11 Colorado team and that will factor into the Armed Forces Bowl prediction.

Rare Mountain West Matchup for Baylor

There hasn’t been much movement in the line as it opened with Baylor favored by seven points and is now at 6.5. The total has gone from 47 to 49.5.

This is Baylor’s first matchup with a team from the Mountain West since a 31-12 win over Boise State in the 2016 Cactus Bowl.

Five of Baylor’s last six meetings with Mountain West teams finished under the total. Four of those meetings came against current Big 12 rival Texas Christian.

The last time Air Force faced a team from the Big 12 came in 2010 when the Falcons, listed as 16.5-point underdogs – threw a scare into Oklahoma before falling 27-24 in 2010.
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