Boca Raton Bowl Betting Odds: Toledo Rockets Looking to Soar Against Liberty

Will a Change At the Top Impact the Liberty Flames?

Hugh Freeze took the Liberty football program to new heights. However, he will not be around for the Boca Raton Bowl as he accepted the head coaching job at Auburn. Co-defensive coordinator and linebackers coach Josh Aldridge will be the interim head coach for the game with former Coastal Carolina coach Jamey Chadwell having been hired to take over at Liberty.

Liberty will be facing a Toledo team coming off a Mid-American Conference championship run. People tend to think of the MAC as a pass first, ask questions later conference. However, it was the defense that led the Rockets to the title and has the Rockets favored according to the Boca Raton Bowl betting odds.

When looking at the college football injury report, Liberty will be without leading rusher Dae Dae Hunter as he suffered a season-ending knee injury. He would have likely become the first 1,000-yard rusher at Liberty since 2018.

Game Information

Sunshine State Products Heading Home

Both NCAAF teams recruit vigorously in the state of Florida so the game will have added meaning to the 24 Florida products on the two rosters.

Receiver Demario Douglas (73 catches, 977 yards), defensive linemen Kendy Charles (59 tackles, 10 tackles for loss, 5.5 sacks), CJ Bazile Jr., cornerback Kobe Singleton 926 tackles, two interceptions), running back Shedro Louis (492 rushing yards) and linebacker Jerome Jolly Jr. are among the Florida natives on the Liberty roster.

For Toledo, the game will be a homecoming for running back Jacquez Stuart (659 rushing yards), receiver Mikel Barkley (22 catches), defensive lineman Judge Culpepper (43 tackles, four tackles for loss), safety Quinyon Mitchell (39 tackles, five interceptions), cornerbacks Chris McDonald (37 tackles, four pass breakups), Nasir Bowers, Andre Fuller and Ronald Delancey and quarterback Tucker Gleason.

Toledo is just 5-8 against the spread and six of the Rockets’ 13 games went over the total. The numbers are also pretty mediocre for the Flames – a 5-7 record against the spread with six of the 12 contests going over the total.

Life After Willis

It was impossible to think about without mentioning dynamic quarterback Malik Willis. He threw for 5,117 yards with 47 touchdowns and 18 receptions to go along with 1,822 rushing yards and 27 scoring runs to lead Liberty to an 18-6 record during the 2020 and 2021 seasons.

Willis left a tough act to follow.

Jonathan Bennett and Kaidon Salter have combined to complete 58% of their passes for 2,536 yards. They have 19 touchdown passes and 14 interceptions. They have run for 402 yards so the offense looks much different now that Willis is in the NFL. That has played a role in Liberty listed as the underdog in the Boca Raton Bowl betting odds.

It might be hard to find a large gap between the No. 1 and 2 receivers on a team than what transpired at Liberty. Douglas has 73 catches and the next closest pass catcher is Noah Frith with 24.

Bowl Drought Ending?

Toledo has lost its last four bowl games and the Rockets’ last win in a bowl game against Temple in 2015.
A key could be the play of the defense. Toledo has allowed 17.8 points in the eight wins and 38 in the five losses. That second number is skewed a bit by the 77 points allowed to College Football Playoff-bound Ohio State.

Toledo led the MAC in total defense, allowing 332 yards per game. The 4.7 yards given up per play also led all MAC defense. That has resulted in the Rockets being favored according to the Boca Raton Bowl betting odds.

Toledo allowed just 5.9 yards per pass play and only Illinois, Iowa, Alabama, Texas A&M and Michigan had better numbers.

Linebackers Dallas Gant and Dyontae Johnson combined for 216 tackles with senior defensive tackle Desjuan Johnson having 16.5 tackles for loss. Quinyon Mitchell was second in the conference with five interceptions. He was responsible for two of the 10 interceptions being returned for touchdowns by MAC defenders.

Flames Love to Go Bowling

The teams haven’t met since 2007 when Liberty won a 35-34 thriller.

If previous success in bowl games comes into play, the edge goes to Liberty as the Flames have won bowls in each of the last three seasons and that included a 56-20 win over Eastern Michigan out of the MAC in 2021.

What is interesting when considering the Boca Raton Bowl predictions is that the game opened as a near Pick’em and now Toledo is favored by 4.5 points. There hasn’t been much movement in the total as it opened at 54.5 and is now at 53.5.

Flames are 45th in the country in red zone defense, allowing touchdowns on just 24 of the 43 trips to the red zone.

Liberty used the bend but don’t break philosophy on defense to earn a trip to sunny Boca Raton. The Flames are 45th in the country in red zone defense, allowing touchdowns on just 24 of the 43 trips to the red zone. That has not been a strength for Toledo, with TDs scored on 27 of 38 red-zone drives.

Ball security has been a key for Toledo. The Rockets are +7 in turnover margin in the eight wins and -15 in the five losses.
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