Boise State to Face UNLV For MWC Championship
Broncos Slight Favorites to Win Mountain West Title
The majority of the conference championship games have pretty good-sized point spreads. That’s not the case in the Mountain West Conference, where Boise State is favored by two over UNLV and the total is 59. The Rebels had a better record this season. But they also had a softer schedule. And there’s no substitute for the post-season experience the Broncos have. Added up, it should make for one of the more entertaining games for Boise State to face UNLV in the championship game.
 Broncos vs Rebels 
Day/Time:
Location: Allegiant Stadium, Las Vegas, Nevada
Streaming: FOX
Line: Boise State -2
Total: 59
Boise State Struggles on the Road
If Boise State is going to win the Mountain West Conference title game, it will have to put its road troubles behind them. The Broncos were just 2-4 straight-up and 1-4-1 against the spread away from home this year. The biggest difference in Boise State’s home and away performances was in defense. The Broncos allowed 25.3 points per game on the season, but on the road that jumped to 33.3 points allowed. It’s little wonder the Broncos were 5-1 in totals when on the road.
Boise State’s offense isn’t bad. The Broncos ran the ball for 208.5 yards per game and 5.3 yards per rush against teams that allowed 4.5 yards per carry. Boise State passed for 229.5 yards per game. The Broncos completed just 57.7% of their passes but gained 8.3 yards per pass attempt, so the offense was able to move the ball.
The Boise State defense allowed 25.3 points per game to teams averaging 29.3 points, so not a bad job there. The Broncos were a better team against the run than the pass. Boise State allows 3.9 yards per rush. But the pass defense was spotty at times, allowing 254.8 yards per game.
Rebels Have Breakthrough Season
After going 2-10 in 2021 and 5-7 in 2022, the Rebels recorded a 9-3 record in the NCAAF standings. It was a huge improvement and UNLV climbed quite a bit in the Sagarin CFB rankings. The Rebels are ranked No. 68 in the nation after finishing No. 120 last season.
UNLV owes a lot of its improvement to the offense, which is averaging 35.5 points per game against teams allowing an average of 28.4 points. The Rebels run for 189.4 yards per game and 4.7 yards per game. The only problem is the teams they’ve played allow 4.7 yards per carry and 169.8 yards per game. So UNLV is actually a pretty average running team. But UNLV can throw the ball, gaining 8.6 yards per attempt against teams that allowed 7.3 yards on average. The Rebels don’t throw a ton, but the passing game is pretty effective.
On defense, Las Vegas allowed 25.6 points to teams averaging 25.2 points per game. The Rebels weren’t particularly good against the run or the pass, but did a good job of tightening up when the opponent was threatening.
What to Expect
Boise State needs to attack UNLV’s defensive line with a steady dose of running plays. The Rebels weren’t anything special defending the run and the Broncos can move the ball on the ground. The Broncos will run until UNLV shows it can stop the running game, mixing in some passes along the way. Boise State runs 39 times per game and passes 28 times on average. The Broncos will look to run as much, if not more than they typically do.
UNLV also likes to run the ball but might enjoy more success through the air against the Broncos. Boise State can stop the run pretty well. But the scores NCAAF show the Broncos can have trouble against the pass. Teams who threw for 250 yards or more yards against the Broncos averaged 34 points against Boise.
Who to Bet On?
There aren’t too many people who expected Boise State to face UNLV in the championship game. Stat-wise, the teams are fairly comparable. You can give a bit of an edge to the Broncos. But there are two big intangibles in this game, Boise State’s experience and UNLV’s home-field advantage.
Boise State has played in bowl games, for conference titles, and all of that, so this is nothing new for the Broncos. It is something new for the Rebels, who will at least be playing in Las Vegas. And Boise is a poor road team as we saw earlier.
The total is fairly lofty at 59. But with Boise State’s struggles on pass defense and the Rebels not being that great against the run, it could be the way to go. With Boise State to face UNLV on the road, you have to think the Rebels can put up some points. But perhaps not enough to win. Take the over 59.
For NCAAF betting news, odds analysis, and more, visit Point Spreads Sports Magazine.
