The Troy Trojans last lost on September 23 against James Madison. This season, at 8-2, Troy has only lost to Kansas State and James Madison, both top-25 teams in college football.
The Trojans will look to continue their seven-game winning streak at home against the Louisiana Ragin’ Cajuns. Louisiana has lost three of its last four games but needs just one more win to become bowl-eligible.
Both college football teams have plenty to play for heading into Saturday’s SunBelt showdown.
That said, the Trojans are currently -16 against the spread, with the total at 46.5. The Over 46.5 is now juiced to -115 for this game.
Oddsmakers aren’t giving Louisiana a high probability of earning their sixth win this weekend. But could the Ragin’ Cajuns at least cover the big spread?
Take a look at the Louisiana vs Troy NCAAF game preview for Saturday’s NCAAF matchup.
Location: Veterans Memorial Stadium
Streaming: NFL Network
Louisiana vs Troy NCAAF Game Trends
Louisiana is 5-5 on the season, but they’re also just 3-7 against this year’s spread. They’ve missed out on covering in three of their last four games. In those three losses against the spread, Louisiana was a favorite. But in the game where they covered, the Ragin’ Cajuns were 11.5-point underdogs against South Alabama.
Meanwhile, the Over and Under have each hit five times in Louisiana games this year. The Ragin’ Cajuns are also 2-3 on the road.
On the other hand, Troy hasn’t missed a cover since September 23. The Trojans have earned six straight wins against the spread, including last week’s 45-14 win against Louisiana-Monroe as 21.5-point favorites.
Troy began the season 0-4 against the spread but has now covered six straight games to get to 6-4 against the spread this NCAAF season.
Meanwhile, the total has gone Under in seven of ten games in Troy matchups. The Trojans are also 4-1 on their home field this season.
Troy most recently defeated Louisiana, 23-17, as 3.5-point favorites. However, the Ragin’ Cajuns are 6-4 against the spread against Troy over the last ten games.
After two straight losses to Arkansas State and Southern Miss, Louisiana head coach Michael Desormeaux spoke about how the next two games are Louisiana’s championship.
He spoke to the media earlier this week and explained that they’re approaching this game against Troy like it’s a championship game. He wants his team to have a sense of urgency because he said becoming bowl-eligible is a significant goal.
With that opportunity in front of them, Louisiana will be motivated despite losing its last two games. It would be embarrassing to lose four straight games after needing just one game to earn college bowl eligibility.
Troy’s Javon Soloman Earned Sun Belt Defensive Player of the Week Honors
Troy looked unstoppable at Louisiana-Monroe last week, earning a 45-14 win on the road. While the offense shined, the defense kept everything in place.
Troy defensive end Javon Soloman won the SunBelt Defensive Player of the Week honors after recording a single-game sacks record with four.
He tied Troy legend and NFL Super Bowl Champion Osi Umenyiora, who had four sacks against Florida A&M in 2022.
After the four sacks last weekend, Soloman is sixth in the nation with ten sacks. In that same, he also added eight tackles against the War Hawks.
Troy’s Defense Will Get The Job Done
The Troy Trojans have a tremendous passer in Gunnar Watson. The senior leader has thrown for 21 touchdowns and just four interceptions. His QBR is 66.3 as a result.
With Watson, the Trojans have earned over 255 yards in the air this season. However, they’ve also rushed on the ground for 153.8 yards per game. Kimani Vidal has been a workhorse in the backfield, averaging 5.5 carries on 211 attempts. That’s 1,168 yards on the year rushing the football. He’s also got seven touchdowns on the season.
With Louisiana allowing 28.6 points per game and giving up 161.8 yards per game on the ground, Troy should have no problem earning yards down the field in the run game.
Meanwhile, Troy’s defense has held teams to 15.9 points per game this year. Opponents have averaged 176.3 yards passing and just 101.4 yards on the ground.
While the Ragin’ Cajuns have a reliable pass protection unit, they’ll still struggle against a Troy defense with a lethal run defense and awesome secondary. We even spoke about the pass rush with Javon Solomon. Those guys can get after it.
But while we still like Troy to win, Louisiana’s offense should still be able to put up numbers. They’ve averaged over 31 points per game this season. If they score anywhere close to that, they’ll easily cover the 16-point spread.
While the Louisiana vs Troy NCAAF game might not be the most anticipated SunBelt game on the slate, the Sagarin college football predictions believe this will be a closer score than the college football betting lines indicate.
Let’s take Louisiana at +16 as one of our many NCAA football picks this weekend.