College Football Upset: Underdogs That Could and Should Win Outright

So far the 2023 College Football season has played out as we thought it might, making it harder for bettors to find those big-money underdogs. We don’t understand the obsession considering dogs are just 949-2846 (25%) -43.78 units SU since 2018. Only once (2022) was betting the dog on the moneyline profitable (+13.30 units) since 2017. Want to think long-term, okay, let’s do that. Since 2005, betting underdogs straight-up is 3211-9837 (24%) -118.062 units. With that being said, our job is to find some College Football upsets this weekend.

South Alabama Jaguars vs James Madison Dukes (-3)

We’re not going out on a limb with these because we want you to have an actual chance to cash a College Football upset ticket. We looked through the College Football spread and three games stuck out starting with this one. It appears the public is thinking along those lines too with 87% of the moneyline tickets coming in on the Jaguars. That has helped push this number down from James Madison -4.5 to -3 (-115). The Dukes (4-0) are just 2-2 ATS after covering their last two games.

The Jaguars (2-2) are just 1-3 ATS, but somehow the oddsmaker has made the Dukes a small home favorite when we anticipated this number being in the 5-6 range. This smells like a trap game so take South Alabama plus the points or SU at +125. In related NCAAF news, we’re sure that James Madison’s Head Coach Curt Cignetti will not be using a cell phone on the sidelines if that matters to any of you. We move on to College Football upset number two.

Pittsburgh Panthers (-2.5) at Virginia Tech Hokies

This number has risen or gone down in some spots, but everyone can agree that Pittsburgh is a 2.5-point favorite. The guys in the desert opened Pittsburgh -2 while the offshore books settled on -3 as their number.

The Panthers (1-3) have lost three straight games after an opening-week win against Wofford. Since then they have lost and failed to cover three straight after a 41-24 defeat at the hands of North Carolina as a 7-point underdog.

The Hokies (1-3) are in the exact same boat after a 24-17 loss to Marshall as a 6.5-point underdog. This is a Panthers team that is hard to find positive things to say as a small favorite over the Hokies who are just 4-11 in their last 15 games. At this point, Pittsburgh is more than willing to dig into their depth to give them significant minutes, and we think that will lead to a multitude of mistakes.

Of the 25 players on the two-deep roster, only four players are younger than a redshirt sophomore or younger. I don’t Pat Narduzzi is happy with his current crop of veterans, so expect this season to be one of learning. Take the Hokies (+115) to win outright or feel free to grab those points.

Notre Dame Fighting Irish (-5.5) at Duke Blue Devils

This game reminds me of when the WWE’s holder of the Money In The Bank briefcase decides to cash in after sensing that the champion is battered and bruised from their current match, or simply mentally unprepared against a fresh opponent.

The number was the first indication that this wasn’t going to be an easy victory after the oddsmakers sent out Notre Dame -4, a number that was bet up to -5.5 at most spots. 60% of the money is on the Irish, but that home loss to Ohio State was as draining as a defeat can be.

We find it hard to believe that the Irish will go on the road against the 17th-ranked team in the nation, one that is looking to use this win as a catapult up the NCAAF rankings, and grab an easy win. The week culminated with rumors Head Coach Marcus Freeman would seriously look at the Michigan State job that opened after Mel Tucker was fired.

This is too much to take, the Blue Devils (+180) cash in the briefcase. That does it for our look at potential College Football upsets for this weekend. Enjoy your football and let’s cash some winners.

For college football betting lines, news, and more, visit Point Spreads Sports Magazine.

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