Independence Bowl: California vs Texas Tech Betting Preview
Bears Have Covered Three Straight; Red Raiders 2-4 ATS Last Six
The Independence Bowl Bowl kicks off this upcoming Saturday, December 16th. We’ve got the latest updates on lines, injuries, departures and weather right here:
One last word before we kick off the Independence Bowl on Saturday. Cal’s starting quarterback Sam Jackson V has announced that he’ll be entering the transfer portal to highlight the Bears’ most recent entrant. That adds to the Bears issue at quarterback after Ben Finley announced he would not be returning to Berkeley a few weeks ago. Freshman Fernando Mendoza will get the start. Finely will stay to serve as the backup to Mendoza. LB Kaleb Elarms-Orr and WR Taj Davis will be out as they enter the portal.
Nothing massive in terms of Red Raiders moves over the last few days but OL Vinny Sciury (Toledo) did declare along with TE Jalin Conyers (ASU) and punter Jack Burgess (Weber State).
To wrap up our preview, the current odds look like they’re going to close with Texas Tech being a 3.5-point favorite. You will have to give up -115 if you’re putting your money behind the Red Raiders. Tech opened as a 1.5-point favorite but almost 65% of the money has pushed this number up. Betting on bowl games has now turned into betting on teams who have the most players left off the team who got them to the bowl game in the first place.
The total opened 58.5 but fell two points to 56.5, and now back up to 58! 60% of the money has come in on the over but that also factors in large wagers that were made before some of these portal announcements. You can tell that’s the point because the public usually waits to make their wagers and 54% of the tickets are now on the under.
Now, check out the rest of the Independence Bowl preview, originally published on December 8
The California Golden Bears (6-6) head to Cajun country to face the Texas Tech Red Raiders (6-6) in the 2023 Independence Bowl. It will be the first time that the Golden Bears have played in the game, while the Red Raiders are making their third appearance (0-2), but first since 1998 when they lost to Ole Miss, 35-18.
The Independence Bowl has been played every year except in 2020, since 1976 with the Rebels owning the distinction of the best record (4-1) in the bowl’s history. The last two games have been decided by less than a touchdown after a 4-year run of blowouts.
Oddsmakers have made Texas Tech a 3-point favorite with a total of 58.5. Early betting patterns show a fairly equal amount of action on both sides even though the early ticket count is in favor of Texas Tech (64%). So far, this has been one of the least bet games on the NCAA bowl schedule. We start our Independence Bowl betting preview with the Golden Bears. *Note: The number opened at -1.5 (It appears the number has moved to -2.5 and the total is holding steady at 58.5). Stay tuned for any changes.
Independence Bowl Information
Bears vs Red Raiders 
Day/Time:
Records: Bears (6-6)/Red Raiders (6-6)
Location: Independence Stadium, Shreveport, Louisiana
Streaming: ESPN / ESPN+
California Feeling Golden
At 3-6, the thought of a bowl game was out of the question to most. That was a fate that head coach Justin Wilcox wasn’t going to accept. With Washington State at home and two road games at Stanford and UCLA on deck, many of the faithful were looking ahead to next season.
Don’t get us wrong, the game against the Bruins was the most difficult task of the three, but as a 9-point dog Cal won outright (33-7) to cap off a three-game winning streak where they outscored their opponents 102-61 while covering all three.
They waited until the end to play their best defensive stretch of the season, but before that, we saw five straight over tickets hit and seven of 12 overall. The Bears’ record in 2023 seems mediocre but there were plenty of almost successes along the way starting with a massive win against the Arizona State Sun Devils (24-21) as a 13-point dog.
Three weeks later they lost by one to USC (50-49) after a failed 2-point attempt with less than a minute left. Cal blew a 14-point lead with 14 minutes left in the game. The Golden Bears rely on a running game that ranks 34th in the nation behind star running back Jaydn Ott who ran for 107.3 yards per game this year, and added a 100-yard kick-off return to his sizzle reel against UCLA.
This was the third straight year that Cal has produced a profit for bettors against FBS teams, producing a combined record of 19-14 ATS. This was the first season since 2016, that the Bears did not finish in the black (ATS) against teams .500 or better.
Departures & Injuries
First, we’d like to go on record to say that kids transferring to other schools should not take place before the bowl games are complete.
Now with that off the chest, the California Golden Bears are headed into the game healthy and without transfer issues. Justin Wilcox signed a 6-year extension for $28.5 million in 2022, so no need to factor in a head coach leaving when handicapping California. We continue our Independence Bowl betting preview by switching our attention to the Red Raiders.
Texas Tech Needed Their Own Late-Season Surge
It wasn’t quite the same dramatics as the Golden Bears but with four games left to play, and an underdog in two of them, Texas Tech had to win three of their remaining games to hit the six-win mark after starting the season -13 and opening with a horrible loss to Wyoming, 35-33 in overtime as a 13.5-point favorite – and then dropping a 20-13 decision as a 6.5-point favorite to West Virginia!
Under second-year head coach Joey McGuire, expectations were high in Lubbock after a 7-5 2022 season that culminated with four straight wins, including a Texas Bowl triumph over Ole Miss (42-25) after finishing 11th in the preseason media poll.
There are times when you have to take a step back to go forward and we’re sure that the same sentiment that McGuire would spew if asked. Unfortunately for bettors, Texas Tech broke a small string of two straight profitable seasons (14-9-1 ATS) before their 4-7 ATS record this year.
Tech was just 3-5 ATS as a favorite and is just 5-7 in that role over the last two seasons. The NCAAF betting odds are somewhat attractive for this game but are we willing to lay points with a team that hasn’t shown an ability to consistently cash tickets when favored to do so? We continue our Independence Bowl betting odds preview by looking at the injury report to see who will be out and who might be already in the transfer portal.
Departures & Injuries
Some Tech players are transferring out of the program led by DB/WR Nate Floyd who has two years remaining. Floyd played in 15 games over four seasons.
Guard Seth Martin has also announced that he will be putting his name in the transfer portal alongside two-year starter Monroe Mills who could be the biggest name to consider when handicapping this game. Also, another massive loss will be slot receiver Myles Price who had 410 receiving yards this year while adding to his total of 1,746 in four seasons.
Up and Down The Field They Go
Of all the final NCAAF scores, this one figures to be one of the higher-scoring affairs. The total hasn’t moved since being posted but we suggest that getting on the over now will benefit the public in the long run.
We don’t see numbers yet for betting patterns but there are some 58.5’s popping up which means the consensus numbers will likely rise as we get closer to kick-off. Our early recommendation is to bet over in what is likely to be a game that features a frantic pace, especially in the second half.
For NCAAF betting news, odds analysis, and more, visit Point Spreads Sports Magazine.
