Military Bowl Betting Odds: Duke Seeks to Bedevil the UCF Knights

UCF Looks to Bounce Back After Loss in Conference Title Game

UCF is coming off a disappointing effort in the American Athletic Conference title game as the 45-28 loss to a Tulane team the Knights had already beaten – likely kept them out of the Cotton Bowl.

Duke is just happy to be in a bowl game after winning just seven games against Football Bowl Subdivision teams over the previous three seasons. Now the Military Bowl betting odds are listing the Blue Devils as the favorite in a bowl game for the first time since 2017.

Duke has won its last three bowl games. However, this is the first bowl appearance since 2018. The most recent appearance came in 2018 when the Blue Devils topped another American Athletic Conference team – Temple.

Each of Duke’s last six bowl games finished over the total with more than 80 points scored in four of them.
UCF is in a bowl game for the seventh season in a row. The Knights are just 3-3 in those previous six appearances with four of those games going under the total.

Game Information

Duke Looks for Another Win Over AAC Foe in Military Bowl

Duke has won its last five games against teams from the American Athletic Conference and covered in each of those games. That includes 30-0 win over Temple in the season opener with the Blue Devils listed as the 9.5-point favorite. Duke is favored according to the Military Bowl betting odds to win again.

Converted quarterback Jordan Moore is one of Duke’s top receivers with 57 catches and 643 yards. He is also the only Maryland native on the Blue Devils’ roster.

Duke’s impressive NCAAF season could have been even more eye-opening if the Blue Devils didn’t lose four games by eight points or less. UCF is 4-2 in one-score games.

Two-Headed Passing Offense

UCF has used a pair of quarterbacks who couldn’t be more different.

Ole Miss transfer John Rhys Plumlee leads UCF with 841 rushing yards and is second on the team with 11 TD runs.

Sophomore Mikey Keene didn’t play in the first seven games. He has completed 72.3% of his passes for 647 yards with six TDs and one interception in the four games he has appeared in. Perhaps more importantly, UCF is 3-1 when Keene plays and 6-3 when he doesn’t. Still, the Military Bowl betting odds list UCF as the underdog.

Regardless of who is at quarterback, Javon Baker and Ryan O’Keefe figure to be busy after combining for 127 catches, 1,472 yards and 10 TD receptions this season. Kobe Hudson might be competing for the team lead in receiving yards had he not missed two games earlier in the season. He still leads the Knights with seven TD catches.

The six interceptions by UCF are the fewest since the Knights had four back in 2015. Tre’Mon Morris-Brash leads UCF with 13 tackles for loss and six sacks.

Leonard Delivers for Blue Devils

Riley Leonard showed glimpses of what he was capable of when he was 13 for 13 in a loss to Louisville late in the 2021 season. Given the chance to be the No. 1 quarterback, he responded by completing 63.5% of his passes for 2,794 yards with 20 touchdown passes and six interceptions.

He is coming off career-highs with 391 passing yards and four TD passes in a win over 2021 ACC finalist Wake Forest as the Blue Devils won four of the final five games to finish tied for second in the ACC’s Coastal Division after being picked to finish last in the college football standings coming into the season.

He also ran for 636 yards and 11 touchdowns as he is on the verge of becoming the first Duke player to lead the Blue Devils in rushing and passing in the same season since Thomas Sirk in 2015.

Shaka Heyward and Darius Joiner led the Blue Devils with 94 and 91 tackles respectively. Heyward has a chance to lead Duke in total tackles for the third season in a row.

Betting Line and Total Holding Steady

When looking at the Duke vs UCF odds, there has been very little movement in either the betting line or the total with Duke holding solid as a 2.5-point favorite and the total coming in the 62-63 point range.

The teams are a combined 13-10 against the spread this season. However, 13 of those games have finished under the total.

The total has gone over in four of UCF’s last five games

UCF is -3 in turnover margin in the four losses and has touchdowns on just seven of 15 drives reaching the red zone in those four games.

Duke’s turnover margin went from -7 a season ago (-9 in the nine losses) to +14 in 2022. The Blue Devils’ success rate in the red zone has also dropped in losing causes with eight TDs in 15 red-zone possessions in the four losses compared to 24 touchdowns in 37 red-zone drives in the eight wins.

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