MWC Showdown: Colorado State vs UNLV Free Pick

The Colorado State Rams (3-3 /1-1) head to Las Vegas, Nevada to take on the upstart UNLV Rebels (5-1 / 2-0) at Allegiant Stadium, on Saturday. The Rams are 3-3 ATS but have dropped two of their last three against the number, but five of their six games have cashed over tickets.

UNLV keeps on rolling with a perfect 6-0 mark against the number after handing Nevada a 45-27 loss as a 7.5-point road favorite. The Rebels are an 8-point favorite against CSU, with a total of 64.5. Let’s get into our Colorado State vs UNLV Free pick, starting with a closer look at the Rams.

Colorado State Comes Off Massive Comeback

You could hear both groans and cheers from the sportsbooks in the desert last week after the Colorado State Rams erased a 20-point deficit in the game’s final six minutes to defeat the Boise State Broncos 31-30 after a last-second Hail Mary was answered in the endzone by Rams TE Dallin Holker.

For side bettors, the late heroics didn’t mean much because the Rams were going to cover, but under bettors were livid with just 27 points scored after three quarters. The win snapped a 12-game losing streak against the Broncos in what was one of the weekend’s most shocking College Football scores.

The question is, how does CSU follow that up, and are they worth a wager when we’ve seen a letdown in this spot many times? There are still questions at quarterback, with Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi completing just 57.4% of his passes with three picks to wash down three touchdowns against Boise and Utah State.

With CSU’s outright win as a 7.5-point dog, the Rams are back to .500 this season but just 28-38 ATS since 2020. Despite the losing record, the Rams have been quite good on the road, covering 24 of their last 45 games away from Fort Collins.

Rebels Fulfill Expectations…Finally.

Practice at Rebel Park this week was upbeat. As members of the media looked on, you could feel many allowing themselves to think about what the future could hold for a program that hasn’t won a bowl game since 200 when John Robinson led the Rebels to a Las Vegas Bowl win against Arkansas.

Since then, UNLV has been to a bowl game just once (2013). The game against Nevada has lost and saved jobs over the years, but never has it been a stepping stone that brought the program to another level like last week.

The Rebels easily covered a 7.5-point spread by the second quarter and through the third after building a 38-14 lead. Quietly, UNLV has become one of the most reliable wagers on most weekend’s College Football scores and odds sheets. Since 2021, the Rebels are 18-9 ATS, eighth best in the nation, and have produced winning seasons for bettors in four of the last five years.

Most of that record was as an underdog, but the Rebels have done well as a favorite, with four winners in their last seven games. Continuing our Colorado State vs UNLV free pick analysis, let’s break down, the good and bad for both teams.

Bettors Make Predictable Wager

We knew what was going to happen when the send-out number on the total was 63. The public was going to bet this up, and that’s exactly what has happened on the back of 88% of the money that has pushed this number up to 64.5.

We don’t think we’ll see much buy-back, considering the ticket count is almost neck-in-neck with the money, with 85% of the total wagers on the over. The over in CSU games have been kind to the public, with five cash out in six games.

The over in games involving UNLV is 4-2 this season, so with two teams showing off a history of high-scoring affairs, it wouldn’t be a shock if this number continued to climb. We conclude our Colorado State vs UNLV free pick analysis with your winner.

Pick: Under 64.5

We sat in chemistry classes as a young handicappers, not knowing that the most valuable lesson to come out of this beaker-driven hour would be that two positives never equal a negative. To put that in betting terms, when you have teams with the same strength as the other, the result rarely reflects the logic behind a wager.

That’s the case here. Colorado State is second in the nation in passing yards with 353 per game against the Rebels, who have played in three games of their last four where the final score easily reached into the 70s.

Unfortunately for bettors, two positive offenses will equal a negative result; take the under without restriction as your Colorado State vs, UNLV free pick. Expect both teams will take some time to come back to earth after emotional wins.

For NCAAF betting news, odds analysis, and more, visit Point Spreads Sports Magazine.

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