MWC Win Total Odds: Air Force and Boise State Battling for Supremacy

Air Force, Boise State and Fresno State should be in familiar territory this college football season as contenders atop the Mountain West Conference.

Will they have company? That, of course, remains to be seen, but there are a few schools that could climb up the NCAAF standings if everything breaks their way.

Here’s a look at the projected MWC win total odds for 2023-24.

Air Force Falcons

• Over 8.5: EV
• Under 8.5: -130

How do you replace the nation’s leading rusher? We’re about to find out. Sure, Brad Roberts is a big loss, but few programs operate with as much consistency as the Falcons. It’s why they share the highest projected win total on the board.

Boise State Broncos

• Over 8.5: -105
• Under 8.5: -125

Quarterback Taylen Green became the third Bronco to win MWC Freshman of the Year honors, passing for 2,402 yards and accounting for 24 touchdowns (14 passing, 10 rushing) after taking over the starting job in Week 5. The Broncos ended up going 10-4 with a 35-32 victory over North Texas in the Frisco Bowl.

Expectations are justifiably high this season despite a challenging college football schedule, which includes non-conference tests with Washington, UCF and FCS powerhouse North Dakota. The Broncos are a +160 moneyline favorite to win the conference.

Colorado State Rams

• Over 4.5: -120
• Under 4.5: -110

The good news is wide receiver Tory Horton returns. Horton caught 71 passes for 1,131 yards and eight touchdowns last season and was named First Team All-Conference. The bad news is, the Rams still will probably struggle.

Fresno State Bulldogs

• Over 8: -140
• Under 8: +110

Logan Fife takes over as the full-time quarterback after stepping in last season when Jake Haener was injured. The defending MWC champions also must replace both their lead back and No. 1 receiver, but the program has proven capable of reloading on the fly. At +380, the Bulldogs have the second-best odds to win the conference, ahead of Air Force (+430).

Hawaii Warriors

• Over 3.5: -120
• Under 3.5: -110

Former record-setting quarterback Timmy Chang went 3-10 in Year One coaching his alma mater. Hawaii ranked bottom-10 in scoring defense, allowing an average of 34.6 points. This season might not be much better, although the Warriors should at least be entertaining to watch offensively.

Nevada Wolf Pack

• Over 3: -175
• Under 3: +145

Once again, the Wolf Pack are projected to finish at the bottom of the MWC, with little reason for optimism. They’ll head into their opener against USC (yikes) on a 10-game losing streak.

New Mexico Lobos

• Over 3.5: -110
• Under 3.5: -120

Outside of Nevada, nobody has lower MWC win total odds than New Mexico or Hawaii. The Lobos were second-to-last in the nation in scoring last season, averaging a measly 13.1 points. Their quarterbacks accounted for only three touchdown passes, an astonishingly low number.

San Diego State Aztecs

• Over 7: EV
• Under 7: -130

Is San Diego State on the verge of breaking up with the MWC? Sure seems so. Regardless, that won’t change the Aztecs‘ outlook. The Aztecs went 7-6 last season and return some key pieces from the nation’s 16th-ranked defense.

San Jose State Spartans

• Over 5.5: -145
• Under 5.5: +115

In addition to kicking off the season Aug. 26 against USC — the Trojans are 30-point favorites, per NCAAF odds –– the Spartans will face Air Force and Boise State back-to-back weeks to begin MWC play. That’s a tall order.

Still, if the Spartans manage to stay healthy, they should be in decent shape. Former Hawaii transfer Chevan Cordeiro (23 TD, 6 INT in 2022-23) is back at quarterback, but defensive lineman Viliami Fehoko will be missed. The MWC Defensive Player of the Year was selected in the fourth round of the NFL Draft by Dallas.

UNLV Rebels

• Over 6: -105
• Under 6: -125

Former Arkansas defensive coordinator Barry Odom takes over at the helm for Marcus Arroyo, who was fired after going 7-23 over three seasons. Odom has a lot of work to do, but based on the MWC win total odds, oddsmakers clearly like the Rebels’ chances of contending for a bowl.

Junior Ricky White (51 catches, 619 yds in 2022-23) figures to be one of the conference’s better receivers.

Utah State Aggies

• Over 5.5: +110
• Under 5.5: -140

The Aggies took an expected step back last season, going from 11-3 to 6-7. They did finish above .500 in MWC play and qualified for a bowl, but the finish (38-10 loss to Memphis inthe First Responders Bowl) was a bit underwhelming.

They must improve on an offense that ranked 104th nationally in scoring.

Wyoming Cowboys

• Over 6.5: EV
• Under 6.5: -130

Wyoming’s 2022 bowl appearance was its fifth in seven seasons under Craig Bohl. The Cowboys should remain competitive this season, especially with multiple key starters back on defense in linemen Jordan Bertagnole, DeVonne Harris and linebacker Easton Gibbs.

For NCAAF scores, betting news, analysis and more, visit Point Spreads Sports Magazine.

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