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Oklahoma State Hoping to Spoil Texas’ CFP Hopes in Big 12 Final

Oklahoma State vs Texas Free Pick: Longhorns Decisive Favorites

The Texas Longhorns are off to the Big 12 Conference Championship Game, hoping to bolster their resume for the four-team College Football Playoff. They’ll face the Oklahoma State Cowboys on Saturday (noon ET) at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas.

It’s the Longhorns’ final game in the conference before heading to the SEC, and Steve Sarkisian’s team is a decisive favorite at -14.5 (-110). The No. 7 Longhorns are also -700 on the moneyline while the No. 19 Cowboys are +14.5 (-110) on the spread and +490 to win outright. The projected total is 56 (-110 Over, -110 Under).

Can Texas take care of business? Read on as we break down the betting odds and provide our Oklahoma St vs Texas free pick.

Cowboys logo Oklahoma State Cowboys vs Texas Longhorns Longhorns logo

Location: AT&T Stadium; Arlington, Texas
Stream: ABC

Betting Trends

The Oklahoma State Cowboys are 7-5 against the spread, including 6-2 over their last eight games. The total has gone Over in five of Oklahoma State’s last seven games. Meanwhile, the Texas Longhorns are 6-6 ATS. The total has gone Under in seven of the Longhorns’ last 10 games and eight times overall. That’s tied for the fifth highest rate (66.7%) in FBS.

Keep that in mind when analyzing our Oklahoma St vs Texas free pick.

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Win and (Maybe) In

Is there still a path to the College Football Playoff for the Texas Longhorns? Despite making the Big 12 Championship Game, the Longhorns’ fate remains a bit muddled.

Texas’ resume — 11-1, highlighted by a non-conference win over Alabama — is sound. However, it may need some help to get where it needs to go. Even a win on Saturday might not be enough to land the seventh-ranked Longhorns in the CFP. Oddsmakers have acted accordingly, dropping the Longhorns’ CFB championship odds to +900.

The Longhorns are coming off their most lopsided win of the season, a 57-7 rout of Texas Tech last Friday. A 15.5-point favorite, Texas piled up 528 yards on offense. It was their sixth straight win in Big 12 play since falling Oct. 7 to Oklahoma.

Led by quarterback Quinn Ewers, Texas now ranks 14th in the country in total offense (460.4 yards per game) and 21st in scoring (34.9 PPG). Ewers, who missed two CFB games midseason with a shoulder NCAAF injury, has thrown for 2,709 yards and 17 touchdowns compared to only five interceptions. He’s also rushed for five scores.

The Longhorns’ upside is immense with a healthy Ewers. They’re 3-1 against ranked opponents this college football season, including that aforementioned 34-24 victory over Alabama. To date, that was the Longhorns’ only game as an underdog. They’re also 5-4 ATS and 8-1 SU in Big 12 play. That’s important to remember when assessing our Oklahoma St vs Texas free pick.

Opportunity Knocking

For the Oklahoma State Cowboys, the goal is simple: play spoiler. A victory would eliminate the rival Longhorns from contention for the CFP.

Can the Cowboys (9-3, 7-2) pull it off? They’ve won seven of their last eight games, with the exception of a 45-3 loss to UCF on Nov. 11. Since that blemish, the Cowboys have scored 40-plus points in back-to-back weeks against Houston and BYU. They’re now ranked 19th in the AP poll.

Ollie Gordon II ran for 166 yards and five touchdowns versus BYU last Saturday, helping the Cowboys (16-point favorites) avoid an upset in double overtime. Gordon II leads the nation in rushing (1,580 yards) and is second to Michigan’s Blake Corum in rushing touchdowns (20). The sophomore’s had eight 100-yard games, including six with multiple touchdowns.

Oklahoma State has followed Gordon II’s lead, churning out a top 30 offense nationally (432.8 yards per game). The Cowboys have scored 40 or more points in four of the last six games. According to NCAAF results, they’ve gone Over the projected total in six of their nine Big 12 games.

The Cowboys haven’t done enough to contend for the CFP — they’re 18th in the CFP rankings — meaning their ceiling is a New Year’s Six bowl. But that will only happen if they knock off Texas. For what it’s worth, Oklahoma State is 4-1 ATS as an underdog this season.

Handicapping the Game

Texas appears to be rounding back into form following Ewers’ absence. Even so, this spread feels a bit large. Oklahoma’s turned it on since a 2-2 start, reeling off seven wins over their last eight games. That includes a 27-24 upset of rival Oklahoma.

The Longhorns have been formidable against the run, holding opponents to the fourth-fewest yards in the country (85.0 per game). However, they’ve faced few backs of Gordon II’s caliber. The Oklahoma State star is formidable enough to help keep this reasonably close, especially if Mike Gundy’s team can limit big plays on the other side of the ball.

Take Oklahoma State to stay within 14 points.

For college football predictions, betting odds, analysis and more, visit Point Spreads Sports Magazine

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