Pop-Tarts Bowl – Kansas State vs NC State Free Picks
2023 Pop-Tarts Bowl: Kansas State Holding Steady at -2.5
By the time the Pop-Tarts Bowl kicks off on Dec. 28, it’ll have been well over two months since NC State’s last loss. The 18th-ranked Wolfpack will put their five-game winning streak on the line when they face No. 25 Kansas State at Camping World Stadium in Orlando, Fla.
NC State opened as a 4.5-point underdog but has held steady at +3 for the last few weeks. As of Monday the Wolfpack were also +130 on the moneyline, with Kansas State coming in at -155. The Over/Under, meanwhile, remains at 47 after opening at 48.5. (Line has moved down to +2.5/-2.5 – +120/-140).
Can NC State pull off the upset? Or will Kansas State hold its own and notch another college bowl win? Read on as we break down the odds and give our pick for the 2023 Pop-Tarts Bowl.
Pop-Tarts Bowl
Wildcats vs Wolfpack 
Day/Time:
Records: NC State (9-3)/Kansas State (8-4)
Location: Camping World Stadium; Orlando, Fla.
Streaming: ESPN, ESPN+
Wolfpack Surging into Postseason Play
NC State is one of the hottest NCAAF teams in the country, having won five straight to move to 9-3. Highlighting the Wolfpack’s resume are ACC wins over Clemson and North Carolina.
Several players have since entered the NCAA transfer portal, but nobody of any real significance. The most notable departure is quarterback MJ Morris, who committed to Maryland last week.
Morris went 3-1 as a starter this season, including passing for 138 yards and two touchdowns as the Wolfpack upset Clemson 24-17. However, he hasn’t played since Nov. 4.
Virginia transfer Brennan Armstrong, who has thrown for 1,621 yards and 11 touchdowns, is expected to get another start in his absence. The sixth-year senior is one of the most experienced quarterbacks in the country.
While there was some speculation that All-American linebacker Payton Wilson could opt out to preserve his health, he instead seems committed to playing. Wilson posted career highs across the board this season, including 138 tackles, three interceptions and six sacks. He won the Chuck Bednarik Award, given to the best defensive player in the country.
NC State started 0-4 ATS but has covered in seven of its last eight games. It’s 5-2 ATS and 4-3 SU as an underdog, including wins the last two weeks over Virginia Tech and North Carolina at +2.5.That’s important to remember when assessing the NCAA football Vegas odds.
Changes Abound for K-State
Kansas State isn’t as fortunate when it comes to preserving its roster. The Wildcats will be without multiple starters, including quarterback Will Howard, who intends to transfer.
Howard was among the Big 12’s most productive quarterbacks, passing for 2,643 yards and 24 touchdowns compared to 10 interceptions. In his absence, the Wildcats plan on turning to freshman Avery Johnson, who appeared in seven games this NCAAF season.
With offensive coordinator Collin Klein also leaving, the Wildcats have quite a bit to overcome.
On top of that, defensive tackle Uso Seumalo and linebacker Jake Clifton are both dealing with injuries, leaving the Wildcats without a few key pieces on defense.
Kansas State has performed reasonably well for bettors, covering the spread in seven of its 12 games. That includes a 6-4 mark ATS as a favorite. At the same time, many of the college football players who had a hand in that success are now on the outs. Bettors need to keep that in mind when analyzing the 2023 Pop-Tarts Bowl odds.
Johnson Solid Backup Plan
Here’s a bit of good news for Kansas State: Johnson has played well, albeit in limited action. He’s attempted 35 passes across seven NCAAF games, completed 23 of them for 301 yards and three touchdowns.
His most notable action came in a 38-21 victory over Texas Tech on Oct. 14, in which he ran for 90 yards and five NCAAF scores. In doing so, he helped the Wildcats cover as 1.5-point underdogs.
Without a doubt, NC State will be one of the tougher defenses Johnson has faced. The Wolfpack have held opponents to an average of just 20.1 points. But without Howard, the freshman dual-threat at least gives the Wildcats a chance to be competitive. They are, after all, favored to win the 2023 Pop-Tarts Bowl.
PICK
Kansas State is formidable, even without Howard. But some might be selling NC State a bit short. The Wolfpack went 6-2 in ACC play and were likely a victory over Louisville away from playing Florida State in the conference championship game. Dave Doeren’s team has an experienced quarterback and a potential game-wrecker on defense.
While Kansas State is averaging a healthy 37.8 points per game, its offense could face some difficulties against Wilson and the Wolfpack. Thus, we’re leaning toward fading Kansas State as favorites and taking NC State at +2.5. If bettors are feeling bold, they may also consider taking the Wolfpack to win outright at +120.
The Over/Under is a tougher call given all the potential departures. But bowl games tend to be a bit more wide open, making us confident in the Over of 47.
For NCAAF picks and parlays, betting analysis and more, visit Point Spreads Sports Magazine.
