The Texas Christian University Horned Frogs looks to bounce back after being upset by West Virginia when they travel to Iowa State Saturday. The Cyclones were being thumped 50-20 by Oklahoma last week to fall to 2-3. Neither team can afford another loss this early in the season. The TCU vs Iowa State odds have the Horned Frogs -6.5 over the Cyclones with the total on the game sitting at 51.
Date & Time:Saturday, October 7, 8 p.m. ET
Line: TCU -6.5 | Total: 51
Texas Christian Suffers Second Close Loss
TCU is 3-2 on the season and 2-3 against the college football betting lines. The Horned Frogs have lost both games by three points and had their chances against West Virginia. The Mountaineers, who were 13-point underdogs, pulled out a 24-21 win despite being outgained by 100 yards. TCU had two field goals blocked in the second half and couldn’t get the tying points on the scoreboard.
Scoring touchdowns hasn’t been a huge problem for TCU. The Horned Frogs have 12 passing TDs and nine rushing touchdowns on the season. But on those occasions they can’t push the ball into the end zone, the Horned Frogs are in trouble. Kicker Griffin Kell is just 7-for-13 in field goal attempts. He missed his only attempt in the 45-42 loss to Colorado and was 0 for 3 against West Virginia.
Fortunately, the TCU offense is pretty good about scoring touchdowns. The Frogs average 34.8 points per game and 487.4 total yards per contest. TCU likes to run the ball a little more than throw. But the Horned Frogs are averaging 193.6 rushing yards and 293.8 passing yards per game.
Defensively, TCU is allowing 21 points per game and allowing 371.2 total yards. The Horned Frogs have been solid against the run, allowing 3.0 yards per carry. The pass defense is adequate, but nothing special.
Cyclone Defense Shredded by Oklahoma
Iowa State entered the Oklahoma game allowing 16.5 points per game. When the game was over, the Cyclones were allowing 23.2 points per game after allowing 50 to the Sooners. But playing teams in the NCAA rankings can do that to your stats if you’re not at the top of your game. Iowa State wasn’t. The Cyclones gave up a ‘Pick 6’ on the game’s first possession and never led, as the Sooners pulled away and scored the final 29 points of the game.
The Cyclones haven’t run the ball very well this season and the passing game is just a shade above average. Iowa State needs to do better than 97.4 rushing yards per game to keep the defense off the field. The Big 12 Conference is filled with teams capable of putting up points quickly. The Cyclones don’t need to compound things by tiring out their defense. Iowa State has just two rushing touchdowns through five games. That isn’t how you win football games.
Quarterback Rocco Becht has thrown for nine touchdowns, but has been picked off five times. He’s been good about not taking sacks, but has to try and limit the interceptions.
The Oklahoma game notwithstanding, the Cyclones haven’t been bad on the defensive side of the ball. The offense could help out a little bit more in terms of field position and time of possession.
What to Expect
TCU likes to mix the run and the pass and that will likely be the gameplan coming into the contest. Despite 41 rushing attempts per game, the Horned Frogs have lost the time of possession battle on the season. TCU should have a little more success on the ground based on Iowa State’s play against the passing game.
For the Cyclones, the passing game will make or break the team in the game. Iowa State isn’t likely to get much done on the ground against TCU. The Cyclones are averaging just 3.5 yards per carry and TCU rush defense will be one of the better units they’ve faced this season. The Horned Frogs have allowed some passing yards and that’s where Iowa State should focus.
Who to Bet On?
The TCU vs Iowa State odds of Texas Christian -6.5 is about what you would expect. The Sagarin college football ratings have TCU 6.52 points better than the Cyclones, which would indicate the Frogs should be favored by about 4.5 after home field is accounted for. But the trends definitely point to TCU.
Iowa State is just 1-8 straight-up and 2-6-1 against the spread as an underdog since the start of the 2021 season. TCU is in one of its better roles, with the Horned Frogs going 7-0 straight-up and 5-1-1 ATS as a road favorite since 2021.
The TCU vs Iowa State odds of 51 on the total might be slightly on the high side. It’s the first time Iowa State has played to a total in the 50s and the Cyclones typically don’t score much or allow a whole lot of points.
But it’s hard to ignore the trends here and TCU -6.5 looks to be the side you want to be on in this game.
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