Despite Trends, Money is Coming in on San Fran
The San Francisco 49ers have lost three straight, while the Jacksonville Jaguars have won five in a row. And yet, the public is still betting on the 49ers as they visit the Jaguars, with both teams coming off a bye. Fading the public has been a profitable endeavor in recent weeks. But in this case, we can’t help but follow the money per our 49ers vs Jaguars free pick of the week.
Day/Time: Location: EverBank Stadium, Jacksonville, FL
Folks Backing San Francisco in a High-Scoring Duel
Despite their losing skid, the 49ers are still seeing plenty of support. Originally opening with the spread at -1.5, over 90% of bettors have backed the Niners. Their line now sits at -3, and if the trend continues, this could go beyond a field goal. Thus, our 49ers vs Jaguars free pick is to lay the points on San Francisco now while they stay under an FG.
On top of that, the public is also betting on the total to go over 44.5. The new number now sits at 45. The total has gone 1-1-1 in San Francisco’s three-game losing skid, but it went over in three of the four games before that. As for the Jaguars, the total is an even 4-4 for their season.
San Francisco Still Has Plenty of Questions
While we recommend betting on San Francisco’s spread for this week’s NFL betting lines, we are not blind to the many questions surrounding the team. How will quarterback Brock Purdy look since he’s been knocked around? He was diagnosed with a concussion and has not looked the same in this losing streak: three touchdowns against five picks and a 77.9 passer rating.
The offensive line is also being exposed. Tackle Trent Williams is questionable with a foot injury, and with Mike McGlinchey now in Denver, a strength for San Francisco has become a liability. Stud running back Christian McCaffrey is also dealing with an oblique injury.
But reinforcements are on the way for the team. The bye week has helped the Niners recover as star receiver Deebo Samuel is on his way back. And on defense, potent pass rusher Chase Young comes over via the NFL Trade Deadline.
While head coach Kyle Shanahan is only 3-4 as an NFL picks against the spread after the bye week, there is strong reason to believe that this team could be due for a dominant performance. Of course, that’s also because Jacksonville may be a paper tiger.
Jaguars Could Get Exposed
Calling a team that is 6-2 a “paper tiger” is audacious. But other than the Bills, who themselves are a paper tiger, Jacksonville does not hold many notable wins. This team is ranked in the top 10 in scoring in both offense and defense. It leads the NFL in turnovers forced and also has a top-five rushing ‘D’. But that’s where the potency ends.
Jacksonville has a vulnerable passing defense. The Jaguars have given up the third-most passing yards, and they have the second-lowest sack percentage. And while the team has held opposing quarterbacks to an average passer rating of 79.2, it has mostly come against low-tier QBs.
And on offense, Jacksonville can be turnover-prone. The team has committed 2+ turnovers in five games. That’s why the Jags are just +5 in turnover differential despite leading the league in takeaways. And in terms of efficiency, this team is just 25th in third-down percentage and 26th in red zone scoring percentage (touchdowns).
Jacksonville will still make it tough for any opponent. We don’t doubt their prowess. But against San Francisco, a team with a better defense and offense, the Jaguars should lose. That’s why we’re against them via our 49ers vs Jaguars free pick.
Struggles Against The Other?
As formidable as these teams have been, both have struggled when facing non-conference opponents. The 49ers are just 2-6 ATS in their last eight games against the AFC. And Jacksonville is 3-4 ATS since last season. The totals went over at least 62.5% of the time in the matchups here.
And the Pick is…
Stay steady with the 49ers. The bye week helps this team recover and get its bearings back. Giving Shanahan and co. an extra week to prepare should also bode well despite his subpar ATS record. Jacksonville is formidable but will get exposed, given its offensive inefficiencies and prone passing defense. As long as the 49ers’ line stays at three points (or lower), they are the right NFL expert picks. Lay the points.
Bet: San Francisco 49ers -3.