Bills vs Chiefs Free Pick: Struggling Contenders Meet Again
Bills Fight For Playoff Lives While Chiefs Sputter on Offense
Could Bills Do More Than Survive?
Buffalo is at its most desperate as it is fighting to stay afloat in the cutthroat AFC. Kansas City can then deal a near-fatal blow to the Bills’ playoff hopes. The NFL betting odds favor the home team by 2.5 points with a 47.5 total despite its struggles. Most are on the side of Kansas City. But with everything on the line for Buffalo, our Bills vs Chiefs free pick may surprise you.
Bills vs Chiefs 
Records: Buffalo Bills (6-6), Kansas City Chiefs (8-4)
Day/Time: Location: GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, MI
Streaming: CBS
Public Squarely Against Buffalo
We can’t fault the public for giving up on Buffalo. The Bills were a popular underdog bet against the Eagles two weeks ago. And while Buffalo took Philadelphia to overtime, the results were the same: a heartbreaking defeat. Those who bet Buffalo at anything less than +3.5 would have burned their tickets. Now, nearly three-quarters of bettors are against the Bills.
With nearly two-thirds of the early money also going against Buffalo, we may see its line move to a whole three points (+3). If it keeps trending that way, +3.5 might even be possible. But the Chiefs should not continue warranting such one-sided action as they just lost to Green Bay. So Buffalo +2.5 or +3 should be expected by kickoff.
Buffalo Almost Always Disappoints
It would be hard to recommend a bet on Buffalo given its record this season: 4-8 against the spread (ATS) and just 1-7 ATS in its last eight games. Even a Bills vs Chiefs free pick with Buffalo at an underdog price seems like a scam at this point. This team just knows how to keep losing games and by the skin of their teeth.
Buffalo’s six losses have come by a total margin of just 26 points. All six losses came within a touchdown. And on the flip side, four of Buffalo’s six wins have come by 20+ points. That’s why this team has a +101-point differential. Still, a 6-6 record means the team’s NFL playoffs odds are teetering to the negative.
Josh Allen has been playing his butt off. He’d be the favorite in the NFL MVP race if Buffalo were a few wins better. We can rely on him to continue putting up lofty stats. The best bets for the Bills could be on Allen’s props to go ‘over,’ and that includes his interceptions.
The former MVP finalist continues to light up the scoreboard partly due to his team being so beat up. This is the NFL. Most teams are missing several key players. But Buffalo’s defense is a shell of itself, especially in the secondary. And the offense, outside of Allen and Stefon Diggs, is either hurting or inconsistent.
When Will the Chiefs “Wake Up?”
The Chiefs gave a brief glimpse of their old selves when they lit up Las Vegas for 31 points in three quarters. So they closed as six-point favorites in Green Bay… and the offensive issues reared their ugly heads again. Kansas City was held to 19 points and just one touchdown.
Patrick Mahomes was held to 210 passing yards for one touchdown and one interception. He has not recorded a passer rating of 100+ in consecutive weeks all season. And while that loss to Green Bay can be blamed on various factors such as poor officiating or dropped passes, this Chiefs offense can’t keep making excuses.
In the end, the team fell to being 7-5 ATS. And the total would have gone under again (4-8-0) had the defense made enough stops. This unit had been Kansas City’s saving grace as it ranks third in scoring (17.3 points). But the Chiefs are winless (0-4) when it allows 21 or more points. This is worrying for the team’s Super Bowl odds.
“A lot of things,” Chiefs defensive tackle Chris Jones said in reply to what went wrong with the team’s defense against Green Bay. “A lot of missed tackles… The fundamentals were not there today.”
Or maybe the defense is wearing down from having to make up for the offense’s shortcomings. Either way, KC is not such a hot team either.
Totals Go Above Thanks To QB Matchup
Allen and Mahomes are two of the best NFL quarterbacks. Hence, three of their last five meetings have led to totals going over. And all five totals were in the mid-50s. This 47.5 total is the lowest in this series.
And the Pick is…
Instead of picking a side, our Bills vs Chiefs free pick is in the total: go under. The total is already low at 47.5, given the quarterbacks here. But the Chiefs are facing an identity crisis on offense, and six of Buffalo’s last eight games have gone under the total. Neither team will light up the scoreboard here.
Bet: Bills-Chiefs Under 47.5.
Bills vs Chiefs Betting Odds
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