Although the Colts remain under .500, they’ve been more competitive this season under new head coach Shane Steichen. Oddsmakers expect the same for this matchup, pricing the Colts as 2-point favorites (-110) and -130 on the moneyline. New England, meanwhile, is +2 (-110) against the spread and +110 to win outright. The projected total is 43 (-110 Over, -110 Under).
Who has the edge? Read on as we break down both NFL teams while providing our Colts vs Patriots betting tips.
Location: Frankfurt Stadium; Frankfurt, Germany
Streaming: NFL Network
The Indianapolis Colts are 5-4 against the spread. The total has gone Over in 11 of Indianapolis’ last 15 football games, including six of nine this season. It’s also gone Over in six of Indianapolis’ previous eight games on the road. Conversely, the New England Patriots are just 2-7 ATS. The Patriots’ 22.2% cover rate is second worst in the NFL. The total has gone Under in six of New England’s last eight games. That’s important to remember when assessing our Colts vs Patriots betting tips.
Indy Standing Strong
Not everything has gone as planned for the Indianapolis Colts. For starters, rookie first-rounder Anthony Richardson is out for the season after undergoing surgery last month on his shoulder. Richardson completed nearly 60% of his passes in four games for 577 yards and three touchdowns. He also ran for 136 yards and four scores.
Yet, the Colts have stayed resilient. At 4-5, the Colts are amongst a long list of teams fighting for one of the AFC’s final wild card spots. Oddsmakers have them priced at +375 to make the NFL playoffs.
Gardner Minshew deserves much of the credit for helping keep Indianapolis afloat. Despite losing their starting quarterback, the Colts have remained one of the NFL’s most productive offenses. They’re seventh in scoring, averaging a healthy 25.8 points per game. They’ve scored at least 20 points in all nine games this season. Keep that in mind when analyzing our Colts vs Patriots betting tips.
Again, that’s largely because of Minshew. Since stepping in for Richardson, Minshew has thrown for 1,527 yards and eight touchdowns on 63.6% passing. He was 17 of 26 for 127 yards and a score in last week’s 27-13 victory over the Carolina Panthers. A 1.5-point favorite, Indianapolis covered the spread for the second time in three weeks.
Although the Colts are still a longshot in the AFC South, one of two teams at +2000 odds, they remain on pace to surpass expectations. The Colts, remember, were projected for only 6.5 wins.
Rough Times in New England
Keep fading the New England Patriots. There’s not a whole lot to like here. There really isn’t.
New England is 2-7 following last week’s 20-17 loss to the Washington Commanders. A 3-point favorite, New England was just 3 of 12 on third down and managed only 327 total yards.
The biggest issue with New England remains its offense, which remains rudderless with Mac Jones. The Patriots are second to last in the NFL scores, averaging only 15.0 points. They’ve hit 20 points just twice over their first nine games.
Injuries, of course, are also to blame. Without two of their best defensive NFL players — linebacker Matthew Judon (torn biceps) and rookie cornerback Christian Gonzalez (torn labrum — because of serious football injuries, the Patriots have lost their big-play capabilities. Leading receiver Kendrick Bourne (torn ACL) is also out.
Projected for 7.5 wins, the Patriots are easily shaping up to be one of the NFL’s biggest disappointments. There’s no obvious fix for their issues. Jones hasn’t shown an ability to operate consistently, especially behind a lackluster offensive line.
The Patriots are a +2500 longshot to make the AFC playoffs, and even that might be a bit generous.
Handicapping the Game
The Patriots are a mess. There’s really no way around it. Their offense can’t score, and their defense doesn’t force many turnovers. It goes without saying those are significant issues.
Unlike New England, Indianapolis has been able to mask its problems. Minshew is by no means a star, but he’s performed respectably in a pinch. Really, that’s all that can be asked of a backup quarterback.
The Colts are just 2-6 ATS in their last eight games with New England, but don’t be fooled. These teams have changed drastically over the last few years, to say the least. These overseas games can be unpredictable, but it’s hard for anyone to have much faith in the Patriots at the moment. When making your NFL picks against the spread, back the Colts in Germany.