Week 10 of the NFL season is like a lot of previous weeks this season. The unders turned in a strong effort, going 3-11 to bring the season total record to 52-83-1. It was the sixth week with five or fewer overs cashing, although there were a smaller number of games some weeks due to byes. Just four teams have seen more overs than unders this season, with Chicago and Indianapolis leading the way with 6-3 records. We’ll take a look at the NFL Week 10 odds from a betting perspective, paying close attention to the totals.
Day/Time: Location: Raymond James Stadium, Tampa, Florida
Line: San Francisco -3 | Total: 45
The San Francisco 49ers (5-3) visit the Jacksonville Jaguars (6-2) on Sunday. Despite the Jags having the better record, the 49ers are 3-point road favorites in this one. The total on the game is 45. San Francisco has dropped three straight after starting the season 5-0. The Jags have overcome a 1-2 start to post five straight victories straight-up and against the spread. San Francisco is 4-3-1 in totals, while Jacksonville is 4-4.
The 49ers are averaging 27.3 points per game for the season. But San Francisco has been held to 17 points in each of the last three weeks. The 49ers, who average 133.5 rushing yards per game, have rushed for a combined 286 in the last three games. The passing game has been better, averaging 228.9 yards per game for the season and 714 combined yards during the losing streak. San Francisco may have to put up more than 17 points against Jacksonville or the NFL Week 10 scores could look like the past three for the 49ers.
San Francisco allows 17.5 points per game but has given up 24 points per game over the last three. The first two losses, to Minnesota and Cleveland, were by a combined seven points. The Bengals beat San Francisco 31-17 last week. The 49ers have allowed some yards each game, allowing 362 per game over the last three. San Francisco is allowing 315 yards per game on the season.
The Jaguars aren’t scoring a lot of points, averaging 24.1, but they’re taking care of the football and playing smart. Jacksonville is +5 in turnovers on the season, which has helped the Jags score three points per game than their opponents allow. The Jaguars gain 341.4 total yards against teams allowing 333. So they’re making the most of opportunities. A Jacksonville win would further cloud the NFL bracket picture in the AFC, where all teams have at least two losses.
The Jags allow 19.5 points per game to teams averaging 22.7 points. Jacksonville is better against the run than the pass, which could help here. With the NFL Week 10 odds on the total at 45 points, the value in this one is to take the under 45.
Day/Time: Location: Deutsche Bank Park, Frankfort, Germany
Streaming: NFL Network
Line: Colts -1.5 | Total: 43
The Colts have been one of the more enjoyable teams to watch this season. Indianapolis is scoring 25.8 points and allowing 26.9. Indianapolis has been running the ball well, but New England can stop the run pretty well. Gardner Minshew has been Gardner Minshew since taking over for the injured Anthony Richardson. He’s made some great plays and he’s made some really bad ones. But that’s what you’re going to get with Minshew.
The Colts haven’t played that well defensively. They allow a few more yards rushing and passing than teams allow. But Indianapolis’ biggest problem is allowing too many points for the number of yards they allow. Teams are scoring a point for every 13.2 yards gained against the Colts.
The Patriots aren’t great defensively, having allowed 20 or more points in eight of their nine games. Much like the Colts, the Pats allow more points than they should be based on yardage allowed. If that was fixed, New England would be more competitive.
New England doesn’t have much of an offense this year, averaging just 15 points per game. The Patriots don’t run the ball or throw the ball very well. New England has probably had a little more success through the air.
The NFL betting odds comparison saw the total open at 41.5 points. The line has moved up to 43. But it’s hard to take the over in this game, especially after the first four international games landed under the total.
The NFL Week 10 odds on the total makes sense. But will have to ride the under trend in the European games and take the under 43 in this one.