Cowboys vs Chargers Expert Picks: Fade the Total Amidst Turnovers
Wild Game Could Produce Underwhelming Scores
Week 6’s Highest Total is a Bust-in-the-Making
On paper, the Cowboys-Chargers game on Monday Night Football sounds like it will be the most exciting game of Week 6. It’s the Cowboys in Hollywood. Call up Jerry Bruckheimer or Michael Bay because that’s what this could be: an entertaining albeit childish show. But nope. We’re not buying all the Cowboys vs Chargers expert picks touting the ‘over’ on the total, set at 50. Go the other way as this will be a mess.
Cowboys vs Chargers 
Date & Time:
Location: SoFi Stadium, Inglewood, CA
Streaming: ESPN
Cowboys and Chargers Rack Up Turnovers
Let’s play the word association game. Dallas Cowboys: turnovers. Whether it’s forcing them or making them, Dallas has been on both ends. The team has forced 11 turnovers so far this season, which is the third-most. It’s been their recipe for success. But last week’s NFL game result showed how this team could turn the ball over.
“Didn’t see it coming,” Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott said following the team’s 42-10 loss to the 49ers. “Put everything into it and got punched in the mouth. Called it a couple of weeks ago humbling against Arizona, but this may be the most humbling I’ve ever been a part of.”
Indeed, Prescott threw three interceptions against just one touchdown. It was shades of last season when the two-time Pro Bowler threw a career-high 15 interceptions. The team’s 18 in total was the third-most in the NFL. And going against a Chargers defense that kind of does what Dallas does raises eyebrows.
The Chargers have forced seven turnovers this season. They forced five in the last two games and were the reason for their victories. Players like Asante Samuel Jr. and J.C. Jackson must look at Prescott like he’s about to serve up lunch. Thus, props bettors may just bet the ‘over’ on interceptions in the NFL odds this week.
But this could also be why the total does not go over 50 points. Dallas allows just 1.2 touchdowns in the red zone per game. That’s one of the best marks. And the Chargers, despite not having a solid mark like Dallas, are facing Prescott who has a measly 51.4% completion rate in the red zone.
Cowboys Reeling But Will Buckle Down Defensively
The Cowboys still have one of the NFL’s best defenses despite getting 42 points hung on them by San Francisco. It’s Kyle Shanahan, he’s in another league. But as prolific as the Chargers’ offense is at 27.5 points per game (seventh overall), Dallas will rebound here. The Cowboys allowed just 20.1 points per game last season.
This is mostly the same team that held explosive offenses from Detroit to San Francisco (in the playoffs) to under 20 points. The loss of Trevon Diggs hurts considering what he does on the secondary. But Dallas also has a front seven that can match the Chargers’ stalwart offensive line. Micah Parsons would see his NFL MVP odds shorten if Dallas can remain this good.
It’s a big reason why six of Dallas’s last nine games have gone under the total. It’s also why Dallas is favored by two points in this game despite coming from an embarrassing defeat.
As for the Chargers, four of their last six games have gone over the total. We can blame the defense as to why that is. Sure, the Chargers can make plays and force turnovers. But the team also gives up a lot. And injuries to star NFL players like Joey Bosa up front and Derwin James give the Cowboys vs Chargers expert picks more fuel to recommend the ‘over’.
Cowboys vs Chargers Expert Pick Analysis
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