Falcons Fly Away With NFL’s Worst Beat in Week 5
Putting the “Dirty” in Dirty Birds
Don’t Talk About the Falcons Right Now
Those “Dirty Birds” may have just inadvertently done their backers dirty. While Atlanta managed to come back and beat Houston 20-18, this did nothing for any bettor with a Falcons -2.5 ticket. Sure, Atlanta won. But had the Falcons taken care of the ball and played better for at least one more possession, their spread, and the ‘over’ on the total, would have not been the NFL’s worst beat in Week 5.
A Numbers Game: 2.5 Reasons Why Atlanta Fell Short of 2.5
The NFL odds this week for this Falcons-Texans game went up and down like a rollercoaster. But ultimately, many had Atlanta at -2.5 so a two-point win qualifies as one of the NFL’s worst beats in Week 5. We can trace Atlanta’s underperformance for a few reasons. The first is the most obvious: fumbles.
Bijan Robinson and Jonnu Smith both fumbled in consecutive drives. These led to a potential 10-point swing against Atlanta. The first one directly led to a Texans’ field goal as Robinson fumbled on their own 30. The next killed a Falcons drive that had them in scoring position.
Had Robinson protected that ball better, maybe the Texans wouldn’t have scored an extra three points. And had Smith held on a bit longer, Atlanta may have been able to score its own field goal – or even a touchdown. If both happened, covering the 2.5-point spread wouldn’t have been an issue. And the total would have gone over 42 points instead of barely getting to 40.
A second reason would be penalties. The Falcons committed seven penalties that cost them 55 yards. The offense was out of rhythm and the fumbles combined with the penalties made it hard for Atlanta to get the ball rolling.
Of course, the play that destroyed the spread for Atlanta was Houston’s late touchdown. After being held off the endzone for over 58 minutes, CJ Stroud connected with Dalton Schultz with 1:54 to go. Ka’imi Fairbairn kicked the extra point as Houston went up 19-18.
It would have been a fantasy for Atlanta to march back down the field and score a touchdown. Alas, to cement the NFL’s worst beat of Week 5, Atlanta elected to milk the clock and have Younghoe Koo hit the game-winning field goal as time expired.
Another Giant Letdown
Of course, the Falcons were not the only NFL team letting backers down. The Giants were once again brutal this week. And we’re astonished how some folks can still back this team despite its consistently underwhelming NFL stats. But here we are: the Giants lost to the Dolphins 31-16 in a game that saw the team fail to cover while the total went under by a half-point.
We can’t tell who got it worse: Giants backers or ‘over’ bettors. Either way, New York could have made both sides happy if it found a way to kick a damn field goal with the six minutes Miami gave it in the fourth. Never mind that it was Tyrod Taylor and Matt Breida out there.
The Giants were playing in garbage time and could have pulled a Los Angeles Rams by kicking a pointless field goal for a final score of 31-19. New York would have covered +12.5 and the total of 47.5 would have gone over. Alas.
At this point, Saquon Barkley should move up the NFL MVP odds board with how inept the Giants have been without him. They are now 0-5 against the spread (ATS) and the only team outside of New England to average fewer than 13 points a game.
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