Dolphins vs Bills Preview: Who Dares Bet Against Scoring Here?
The NFL’s Two Hottest Teams Meet in Orchard Park
Highest-Scoring Game for Week 4 Per Odds
With a total of 53.5, the oddsmakers confidently have Miami-Buffalo with the highest total of Week 4. That’s a given as they have scored the most points in the league. Heck, Miami dropped 70 points last week, which is more than what 18 NFL teams have scored in total. Combined, Miami and Buffalo combined, are averaging 73.7 points a game. Yeah. Who’d bet against that? Well, we’ll humor it with this Dolphins vs Bills preview.
Dolphins vs Bills 
Day/Time:
Location: Highmark Stadium, Orchard Park, NY
Streaming: CBS
We’ve Seen This Dolphins-Bills Matchup/Line Before
Actually, last year had a similar Dolphins vs Bills preview but flipped: Buffalo was in Miami. Still, you had two of the hottest offenses meeting with a total of 54.5 points, that week’s largest. Buffalo was the NFL favorite by four points, which is a bit more than it is now (2.5 points). And what happened? A 21-19 win for Miami.
The Bills totaled nearly 500 yards of offense but had a difficult time converting those yards into points. Both teams had the ninth and 10th best red zone scoring percentages (touchdowns only) in 2022. That didn’t mean Jack in that game.
This season, Miami is at the top (duh) at 78.6% and Buffalo is 11th at 61.5%. Both Tua Tagovailoa and Josh Allen, each team’s star quarterbacks, are completing over 70% of their passes. And both teams have combined to average nine touchdowns a game.
“Regression to the Mean” fans may bet against these numbers, especially Miami. The Dolphins are unlikely to finish the season averaging 43.3 points. And Vic Fangio is in command of the defense. So even if Miami is giving up nearly 24 a game, he might just get the crew to “show up” and lock a team down.
Miami’s ‘D’ will need to as Allen and the offense get more efficient at home. Last season, the Bills scored 27 or more points in eight of their 10 home games. Allen’s passer rating was 103.7 with 8.2 adjusted yards per attempt. And Buffalo is coming off a 41-point outing in its last appearance in Orchard Park. It’s why the totals have gone over in six of Buffalo’s last 10 home games.
Who Wins This Dolphins-Bills Rematch Though?
When it comes to this “rivalry”, it’s not much. Buffalo has beaten Miami in nine of their last 10 meetings. That 21-19 win by Miami marked only the second time the Dolphins beat Buffalo since the latter became coached by Sean McDermott in 2017 – he is 11-2 against Miami.
“I really don’t know,” Emmanuel Ogbah said when asked why a matchup with Buffalo is different than the others. “I guess I’ve lost to them more times than I’ve won. It’s just I want to beat them bad because they beat us multiple times. That’s just the goal, to beat them pretty much.”
This time might finally be different as the Dolphins have a healthy Tagovailoa, who should climb the NFL MVP odds boards.
Miami is 24-12 when he plays a full game and that comes with an asterisk as he was compromised with a concussion in his final few appearances last NFL season.
Tagovailoa is healthier now but Miami is still dealing with absences. Wide receiver Jaylen Waddle, who missed the Broncos game, is still on the NFL injury report today. Others, like tackle Terron Armstead and defensive lineman Jaelan Philips, are also significant.
But that’s the NFL. This wouldn’t be a fair Dolphins vs Bills preview if we didn’t mention that Buffalo has several key players, like cornerback Tre’Davious White, listed on its report.
Ultimately, Buffalo is favored slightly because it has done tremendously on both sides of the ball (ranked second in both offense and defense) and McDermott owns Miami.
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