NFC Offensive Player Of The Week: Baker Mayfield
The 6th year pro was 22-28, 381 yards, and 4 Touchdowns in win vs. Packers
Baker Mayfield
Baker Reagan Mayfield
Tampa Bay Buccaneers6
28 years old (04-14-1995)
6 ft 1 in
Austin, Texas, USA
QB
2018/Round 1/Pick 1
Normally, Baker Mayfield’s stats wouldn’t stick out as special when compared to other NFL football players on most weeks, but completing almost 79% of your passes in a road win at Green Bay will get one noticed.
The former 2018 Pro Football Writers Rookie of the Year has never won the award in his career, but now he can proudly display whatever the league does to recognize his achievement right next to his 2022 Nickelodeon MVP.
Mayfield improved to just 38-45 in his career, but 2023 is lining up to be the best season of the former Oklahoma Sooner with 24 touchdowns against just eight interceptions. His NCAA Football stats set the stage for a 2017 Heisman Trophy but those numbers never duplicated themselves in the pros until now. Let’s dig deeper into Baker Mayfield’s stats on the field and what he’s meant to the betting public through the years.
Mayfield In The Upper Half Of Quarterbacks
Most bettors wouldn’t look at their fresh NFL odds and scoresheet and look to see who Baker Mayfield was facing that week, but perhaps that should change. The public looks at the Auston, Texas native and probably thinks, a good college career, never could get it done in the pros with a few nice moments.
Mayfield is putting a halt to that thinking after a season that has put him among the top quarterbacks in the league. No, we’re not talking about the top five or 10, but certainly among the top 15, and he got there like a mouse tip-toeing around cats.
Quietly he’s 13th in passing yards with 3,315 and 12th in completions. His 24 touchdown passes (8th), tie him with Russell Wilson and is better than Mathew Stafford and Justin Herbert. One has to wonder how good his numbers would be if the Tampa Bay Buccaneers were able to keep him upright consistently.
We think that most would admit that Baker Mayfield’s stats are better than what they anticipated but the true question is how does that equate to the betting world can we trust our money behind the eccentric Mayfield?
Bucs Baking Books
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are a .500 team (7-7), but bettors look at this NFL team as a worthy weekly investment with Mayfield behind center, who is 9-5 ATS this season. Mayfield needs to win one more game to ensure he will be a plus-money quarterback, his first winning season against the spread since 2018 when he finished 7-6 ATS.
In his career, Mayfield (+3.17 units) is still just 38-46 (-10.06 units), but it seems like this NFL season should be a turning point in how we view his reliability to cash a ticket. Only three other quarterbacks this season have produced more profit, Dak Prescott (+3.19 units), Mathew Stafford (+3.20 units), and Gardner Minshew (+3.31 units).
Mayfield has been incredible as an underdog this season with a 7-3 ATS mark (+3.39 units) and has been 18-12 ATS as an underdog since 2020, improving on a 25-21 career mark.
Where Does The Public Go From Here?
No matter how much success Mayfield has had this season, it’s been kept quiet because the Buccaneers are swimming in the NFC South’s mediocrity. On the road in 2023, Mayfield is 7-1 ATS on the road and just 2-4 at home.
With two of the Buc’s next three NFL games at home perhaps we don’t suggest going all-in with Mayfield when they’re playing in front of the pirate ship. This trend has followed the 28-year-old his whole career, great on the road, not so great at home where he’s 14-24-1 ATS in his career.
That’s a massive difference compared to his career road record of 24-22, 18-13 since 2020. Only Joe Burrow (+7.35 units) has won more money for bettors away from home with at least 30 starts.
Against Jacksonville, New Orleans, and Carolina, the Buc’s remaining opponents, Mayfield is 3-2 ATS. In December, Mayfield is just 7-9 ATS since 2019, but a promising 2-1 ATS in 2023 may change the perception of how good Baker Mayfield is becoming as his career progresses.
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