NFL Week 12 Underdogs: Who Can Win?
A Number of Games With Low Point Spreads This Week
There’s no shortage of games with low NFL point spreads this weekend. All of them are on Sunday, as the Thanksgiving slate sees three teams favored by at least a touchdown. Friday’s lone game also sees a huge favorite. But Sunday is a different story, as just one game has a line higher than 3.5 points. We’ll look at a couple of the Sunday games and try to find NFL Week 12 underdogs with a good chance of covering the point spread.
Ravens vs Chargers 
Day/Time:
Line: Baltimore -3.5
Total: 47
Location: SoFi Stadium, Inglewood, California
Streaming: NBC
The NFL lines make sense in this one. The Ravens are 8-3, and the Chargers are 4-6, so Baltimore Ravens have to be favored on the road. At 3.5 points, the spread makes you pause a little bit. It’s one thing to lay a couple of points in the NFL. But it’s usually a little harder to pull the trigger when the line reaches 3.5.
The Ravens have become beasts on offense lately, scoring at least 30 points in each of the last five games. Baltimore didn’t score 30 points once through its first six football games. For the season, the Ravens are averaging 27.6 points per game. Baltimore is a bit of a rarity in the NFL because it runs the ball more than it passes. But you knock the success the Ravens are having. Baltimore’s 155.1 rushing yards per game leads the NFL, and the team throws for 211.5 yards.
Defensively, the Ravens have been solid, allowing 16.1 points per game. Baltimore has been better against the pass than the run, ranking No. 3 in pass defense. The Ravens are No. 7 in the NFL in defensive yards per point, so teams are having to work to get on the scoreboard.
Chargers Need to Win Close Ones
The first thing that jumps out at you when looking at the Los Angeles Chargers is their 4-6 record. The second thing that jumps out is Los Angeles’ 0-5 record in games decided by a field goal or less. The Chargers have lost four games by three points and once by two points. Los Angeles could easily be 6-4 by making a play here or there. But that hasn’t been the case.
The Chargers are averaging 25.9 points per game, doing most of their damage through the air. Los Angeles throws for 248.5 yards per game and rushes for 105.8. The Chargers are No. 4 in the NFL in offensive yards per point, so they’ve managed to make the most of their opportunities.
Los Angeles is pretty average defensively, defending the run well, but is terrible against the pass. The Chargers rank last in passing yards allowed by a pretty good margin. A little bit of that has to do with the teams they’ve played. But most of it’s due to the Chargers not defending well.
The Chargers played better than their record indicates. The Sagarin NFL power rankings Week 12 have the Ravens winning by 1.65 points. So there’s a bit of value on the Chargers +3.5 in this one, and will take LA as one of the NFL Week 12 underdogs.
Chiefs vs Raiders 
Day/Time:
Line: Kansas City -9
Total: 43
Location: Allegiant Stadium, Las Vegas, Nevada
Streaming: CBS
Since this article is about taking NFL underdogs, you already know who the selection is going to be on. But there’s a fair case to be made for the Las Vegas Raiders keeping this one close as one of our NFL Week 12 underdogs. The Chiefs are favored by 9 points, and the total on the game is 43. Going back to last year, road favorites of 7.5 points or more are just 6-17 against the point spread. These teams are just 15-8 straight-up, which is a poor winning percentage for such large favorites. This year has been even worse, with the road favorites of 7.5 going 3-3 straight-up and 1-5 against the spread.
The Chiefs aren’t the same offensive juggernaut we’ve seen the last few seasons. Kansas City Chiefs is averaging just 22.5 points per game. Kansas City is the worst second-half scoring team in the NFL, which isn’t what you expect out of Patrick Mahomes and company. The Chiefs are averaging 365.5 yards of total offense, which is No. 8 in the league. But Kansas City is way down at No. 22 in yards per point.
Las Vegas can play defense, allowing 20.5 points per game. The Raiders do allow some yards but make it challenging to reach the end. Las Vegas is No. 9 in defensive yards per point. It’s a good thing Las Vegas can play defense because it doesn’t score a lot of points. The Raiders score 16.8 points per game, but they score more points at home, where they’ve gone 4-1 straight-up and against the spread this NFL season.
These two NFL teams are a combined 4-17 in totals this season. And in what should be a relatively low-scoring game, it makes sense to take the Raiders +9 in this spot.
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