NFL Week 16 Odds: Looking For Value in Totals
Unders Bounce Back in Week 15 With Strong Finish
Week 15 started out strong for over bettors, with the first four games landing over the number. But a 3-9 record on Sunday and Monday, saw unders win the week with a 9-7 record. The Week 16 schedule is spread out over a couple of days, with games Thursday, Saturday, Sunday and Monday. We’ll take a look at the 2023 NFL Week 16 odds with an emphasis on over/unders and come up with a couple of plays here.
Browns vs Texans 
Day/Time:
Location: NRG Stadium, Houston, Texas
Lines: Cleveland -2.5
Total: 40
Streaming: CBS
A pretty decent game that may help sort the NFL playoff picture, as Cleveland visits Houston. The Browns are favored by 2.5 points and the total on the game is 40. Cleveland is a completely different team on the road and we’ll look to take advantage of that here.
For the NFL season, the Browns are scoring 22.1 points and allowing 20.6 points. But on the road, Cleveland is averaging 24.2 points and allowing 30.7 points. The Browns are 6-0 in totals away from home this season. At home, Cleveland is just 1-6-1.
The Browns have struggled on the ground the past two weeks, but threw for over 300 yards in each game. On the road, the Browns rush for 4.6 yards per carry compared to 4.0 yards overall. The passing game is roughly the same at home and one the road.
As you’d expect, Cleveland’s defense goes downhill on the road, allowing 84 more total yards than they do overall. The NFL stats show the Browns allow 7.8 yards per pass compared to 5.4 yards per pass overall, which is a significant difference. The run defense is a little worse on the road. Cleveland allows 4.8 yards per play overall, but 6.1 yards per play away from home.
Houston Offense Becomes Stagnant
After a fast start, CJ Stroud and the Texans have hit a little bit of a dry spell. The Texans haven’t scored more than 22 points in the last five weeks. Houston’s passing game has been particularly quiet the past two weeks, gaining a combined 246 yards.
But the Texans’ offense comes to life a little bit at home. Houston averages 21.9 points overall and 24.7 points at home. Houston doesn’t run the ball well, especially at home, but it averages 300.3 passing yards per game in front of the home fans.
The Texan defense doesn’t show a big difference at home or on the road. Houston allows 21.1 points overall and 20.6 points when it plays at home. The Texans are just 2-5 in home totals. But this is the second-lowest total Houston has played to at home this year. Cleveland’s road defense might just be exactly what the Texans need. The 2023 NFL Week 16 odds are fairly low on the over/under and this one is worth a shot on the over 40.
Ravens vs 49ers 
Day/Time:
Location: Levi’s Stadium, Santa Clara, San Francisco
Lines: San Francisco -5.5
Total: 47
Streaming: ESPN
The NFL has saved one of the best for last, as the final game on the week’s schedule is Baltimore at San Francisco. The 49ers have climbed to 5.5-point favorites and the total is holding steady at 47 points. Both teams can score, with the 49ers No. 3 in scoring and Baltimore at No. 4. But both NFL teams can also play defense. The 49ers are No. 1 in scoring defense and the Ravens are No. 2.
Both teams are 11-3 and also happen to be anomalies in today’s NFL, as each team runs the ball more than it passes. Part of that has to do with both teams often leading and trying to run time off the clock. But they’re each pretty good running teams and the ground game makes the passing game more dangerous.
Baltimore is averaging 27.4 points per game and rushing for 163.8 yards per game. The Ravens throw for 210.4 yards per game and 7.2 yards per pass attempt. Baltimore doesn’t score quite as much on the road.
On defense, the Ravens are strong against the pass, allowing just 4.9 yards per pass attempt. That’s not much more than the 4.3 yards Baltimore allows per rush attempt. You can run against Baltimore, but teams are typically playing catch-up against the Ravens. Baltimore sees 23.8 rushes per game.
49ers Offense Comes to Life
San Francisco’s three-game losing streak is a thing of the past. The 49ers have run off six straight victories and gone 4-2 against the NFL odds in the process. But more importantly, San Francisco has scored at least 27 points in all six games. But the defense has held five of those six teams to under 20 points, so San Francisco is 3-3 in totals during its winning streak.
The 49ers are leading the NFL in yards per pass attempt and compliment that with a running game that’s averaging 4.7 yards per carry. That all adds up to being the top team in the league in terms of yards per play.
San Francisco is solid on defense. But like Baltimore, the 49ers are allowing 4.3 yards per rush and San Francisco sees just 20.9 rushing plays per game. Teams throw 38.1 times against the 49ers on average.
The 2023 NFL Week 16 odds on the total are a shade high considering the two defenses. But this is an NFL game that could land over the number based on the two offenses. Both teams should have some success running the ball, which could open up the passing games. So, we’ll try the over 47 in this one.
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