NFL Wild Card Totals Points Preview: Seeking Value in Playoffs
Last 3 Years Have Seen More Points, More Unders in Playoffs
Betting on NFL totals in the playoffs the last three years has been a little bit tricky for bettors. Since the start of the 2020 playoffs, there have been 48.6 points scored per game in the postseason compared to 45.6 points in the regular season. But NFL playoff games have gone over the total 43.6% of the time compared to 46.8% of the time in the regular season. We’ll look at several games from an over/under perspective on this weekend’s schedule in this NFL wild card totals points preview.
Dolphins vs Chiefs 
Day/Time:
Location: Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, Missouri
Streaming: Watch Live Sports
It’s going to be 81 degrees in Miami on Saturday. But after the Dolphins forgot to show up against Buffalo last week, it’s not going to matter. Instead, Miami will get to play in Kansas City, where temperatures will be about 10 degrees at kick-off.
It should be close to 0 degrees at the end of the game. Add in the wind, which is forecast to be 15 mph, with gusts of up to 25 mph, and the wind-chill factor will be close to -15 degrees in the fourth quarter.
In this battle of previous Super Bowl winners, the NFL odds have the Chiefs favored by 4.5 points. The total has dropped to 44 points. The total opened at 47.5, but the weather forecast has knocked it down. The question is if the total has been knocked down enough. The Chiefs were 5-12 in totals this season. Miami was 9-8.
When the teams met earlier this season, the total was 51.5. Kansas City won 21-14 in Germany. Neither NFL team cracked 300 total yards, although that might be a tough act to follow.
The Dolphins averaged 401.3 total yards per game this season, while Kansas City averaged 351.4. But on defense, the Chiefs allowed just 289.8 yards, and Miami allowed 318.3.
How Will the Game Play Out?
The Chiefs are one of the top teams in the NFL at pass defense. But Kansas City’s rushing defense isn’t all that impressive. The Dolphins would be wise to run the ball and run it often.
In the first meeting, Miami ran the ball 21 times for 117 yards. That’s 5.6 yards per rush. But the Dolphins threw the ball 34 times for 175 yards. That averages to be 4.7 yards per pass attempt. The running game was much more effective.
For the season, Miami was one of the best rushing teams in the NFL. The Dolphins averaged 135.8 yards per game and 5.1 yards per attempt. The Chiefs allowed 4.5 yards per carry against teams who averaged 4.1 yards per rush. But the Dolphins like to throw, although that plays into Kansas City’s hands.
Kansas City is a little better than average running the ball. But that’s the strength of the Miami defense. The Dolphins allowed 3.8 yards per carry but 6.6 yards per pass attempt. The Chiefs will run the ball some. But they’ll also stick with the short passing game, which usually works pretty well.
The NFL wild card total points preview likes this one to go under 44.
Eagles vs Buccaneers 
Day/Time:
Location: Raymond James Stadium, Tampa, Florida
Streaming: Watch Live Sports
The temperatures won’t be bad here, but there is a fair chance of rain during the NFL game. Still, it’s never easy to forecast the weather several days in advance. Especially in Florida, where things can change quickly. But right now, the forecast gives a 62% chance of rain in the evening with temperatures in the mid-60s.
The Eagles simply aren’t playing their best right now. Philadelphia dropped three of its last four games before last week’s loss to the Giants. You really can’t count that one, since the Eagles had no incentive. That hasn’t stopped the Eagles from being favored by three points and the total on the game is 44.
Philadelphia was 9-8 in totals this NFL season, but just 2-7 on the road. The Eagles averaged 25.5 points per game, but just 22.2 away from home. Likewise, the Philadelphia defense allowed 25.2 points per game, but just 21.4 points on the road.
The NFL wild card totals points preview notes Tampa Bay was a lower-scoring team at home. The Bucs averaged 20.5 points per game for the year, but just 17.6 points at home. But the Tampa Bay defense was able to pick-up some of the slack, allowing just 17.1 points in home games. As a result, Tampa Bay was 6-11 in totals for the season but 2-6 when playing at home.
How Will the Game Play Out?
The Eagles do run the ball 30 times per game and gain 4.3 yards per rush. But some of those runs are when Jalen Hurts takes off from the pocket. Tampa Bay is solid against the run, allowing 3.8 yards to teams averaging 4.1 yards per carry.
Tampa Bay doesn’t run the ball very well at all. But they make an attempt to move the ball on the ground. The Bucs averaged 3.4 yards per attempt on 25.8 carries per game. Tampa Bay will throw some short passes to compensate for its lack of a running game. But the Eagles aren’t anything special when it comes to run defense.
The weather may or may not play a factor in the outcome of this one. But take the under 44 for one of your NFL picks today.
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