Patriots vs Bills Tips: Go Against the Lines With This AFC East Rivalry
Patriots and Bills Tend To Produce High Scores in Buffalo
The Low Total is Uncharacteristic For These Rivals
Even with New England out of contention, it has continued to play hard. And the Bills are coming off a hard-fought win against the Chargers as wide favorites. With plenty at stake, we can expect an NFL playoff atmosphere in Orchard Park this Sunday. But for the best Patriots vs Bills tip, ignore the sides here and look to the total. But how to bet it? Go over as recent trends have supported.
Patriots vs Bills 
Day/Time:
Records: Patriots (4-11)/Bills (9-6)
Location: Highmark Stadium, Orchard Park, NY
Streaming: CBS Network
All Eyes on the Running Game
Three of the last four Patriots-Bills games have gone over their totals when in Orchard Park. Buffalo has mainly been responsible for this, averaging 29 points and scoring over five touchdowns in the last two.
Their only low-scoring total was a blustery game where New England notoriously passed just five times. This high-scoring NFL result depends on the running game.
Buffalo needs to get its running backs going if it hopes to score plenty. The Bills scored 30+ in five of its six most prolific rushing games. The total also went ‘under’ in four of these games due to Buffalo holding four of its six opponents to 10 points or fewer. As such, the NFL odds favor Buffalo by 13 points, with a total of just 40.5 here.
But against New England, Buffalo is going against the NFL’s best rushing defense. The Patriots have limited opponents to under 100 rushing yards in nine of its last 10 games. They held the Bills to just 81 when they first played in Week 7. The total did go over, as one of the 54 points is the highest for a Patriots game this NFL season.
If the Bills can’t run the ball against New England, it will fall on Josh Allen and the passing offense to move the ball. And that’s not ideal as Buffalo is just 2-5 and 1-6 against the spread (ATS) in Allen’s seventh most passing attempts. Both Buffalo and its opponents averaged 23.5 points apiece for an average total of 47.
Unless Buffalo can dominate New England with the run, we likely see more scoring than the 40.5-point total indicates. Hence, bet the ‘over’ as for our Patriots vs Bills tip.
Bills Remain Heavily Juiced Despite Struggles
As another Patriots vs Bills tip, we can’t tout laying 13 points on Buffalo here. We’re looking for the Bills to blow the Patriots out as they’ve done in their last two home games against them.
But despite a three-game winning streak, Buffalo is still a shaky favorite to back. This NFL team is just 6-9 ATS overall and 2-5 ATS when favored by more than a touchdown.
Buffalo played a near-perfect game in trouncing Dallas. But it quickly went back to its bad habits of turning the ball over as it struggled to put the overmatched Chargers away. The Bills have had multiple turnovers in seven games this season. This is partly why this team is second in the AFC East standings and fighting to get into the playoffs.
On the flip side, the Patriots have not been a bad underdog in this spot. The Patriots are just 3-7-1 ATS as an underdog. But the team has not lost by more than 10 points in its last seven games. In fact, the Patriots have lost by 13+ just twice: against Miami in Week 8 and New Orleans in Week 5.
New England has only lost to Buffalo by more than two touchdowns twice in their last 10 meetings. Even if Bill Belichick has nothing but nice things to say about Allen, he’ll need to channel those NFL games to cover the lofty spread.
“It doesn’t really matter where (Allen) was or where he is right now,” Belichick told NESN about Allen. “He’s pretty good. Real good.”
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