Indianapolis Colts vs Dallas Cowboys Betting Preview

Another primetime game, another NFL matchup between teams seemingly headed in opposite directions as the Dallas Cowboys — fresh off an impressive 28-20 win over the rival New York Giants on Thanksgiving — host the Indianapolis Colts, who lost a brutal 24-17 decision to the Pittsburgh Steelers on Monday night.

Dallas is still within striking distance of the first-place Philadelphia Eagles while Indianapolis is barely hanging on in the competitive AFC. This Colts vs Cowboys betting preview is covering a game that, on paper, seems one-sided.

The Cowboys opened up as 9.5 point favorites after the Colts’ loss and the spread has jumped to 10.5 points in favor of Dallas.

Considering that the Cowboys have won four of their last five games, including a 40-3 drubbing of the very good Minnesota Vikings, and that the Colts — under the questionably qualified Jeff Saturday as their interim coach — have lost five of six and looked completely inept on offense in the first half against Pittsburgh.

The over/under opened at 45 points and has dropped slightly to 44.5 points over the course of the week. Without NFL injuries expected to play a big role on Sunday night, look for Dallas to roll over the Colts. The Cowboys opened as -425 moneyline favorites and are now -550.

Matt Ryan Could Struggle Against Dallas

He has had an incredible career but, too often this NFL season, Matt Ryan has looked like he’s on his way out of the NFL sooner rather than later. His quarterback rating is a near-career-low 86.3 and he has just 11 touchdown passes compared to 10 interceptions while being at the helm of a Colts’ offense that has scored the third-fewest points in the NFL and is 27th in yards per passing attempt.

Couple that with the fact that the Cowboys have the second-best scoring defense (and the seventh-best yardage defense) and have allowed the fewest passing yards (and second fewest per passing attempt), and it could be a long day for the Colts.

The NFL stats point toward Dallas being able to shut down Indianapolis’ weak passing game. Ryan has some top-end weapons to throw the ball to in Parris Campbell and Michael Pittman Jr. but he just hasn’t been able to get them the ball enough for the Colts to overcome a (relatively) disappointing season from Jonathan Taylor. Taylor has eclipsed 100 yards just twice after doing so 10 times in 2021. It might be a chicken-or-the-egg situation between his struggles and that of the passing game but, either way, Dallas’ strong pass defense should be able to key in on Taylor more than most teams.

Much of this Colts vs Cowboys betting preview comes down to whether Dallas is able to bottle up Taylor. The Cowboys are pretty bad against the run —24th in yards allowed and 25th in yards per carry — but with a strong front-seven led by Micah Parsons and DeMarcus Lawrence, Dallas should be better than that.

The Elliott-Pollard Combo is Working

While it might not actually be surprising based on how each of them have performed over the past few seasons, but Tony Pollard has clearly eclipsed Ezekiel Elliott in the Cowboys’ two-headed running back tandem.

Despite having four fewer carries, Pollard has rushed for 184 more yards and has 23 catches for 244 yards (compared to Elliott’s eight catches for 40 yards). Pollard is the No. 1, even if Elliott is still the more well-known back of the two.

So, even though Elliott is a well-paid second option in the backfield, it works out fine for a Dallas team that has a top-seven ground game based on the NFL stats.

Opposing teams have to account for two very good running options, one (Elliott) that is more of a power runner at this point in his career and one (Pollard) who brings a ton of speed to the table. That gives offensive coordinator Kellen Moore a bunch of possibilities in terms of play-calling and it allows for Dak Prescott to have more time to throw on play actions. That’ll be important against the Colts, who allow the fifth-fewest yards per carry in the NFL.

Turnovers Will be Key for Colts Upset

It’s relatively cliche for a Colts vs Cowboys betting preview to say that whoever wins the turnover battle in this game will have a good chance at winning but, considering where each of these teams rank in terms of turnovers, it might be true.

A major reason why Indianapolis has been so bad in close games this season is because the Colts have committed a turnover in all but one of their 12 games so far — they’ve given the ball away 21 times, which is the second-most in the league. Also, they’ve forced just 11 turnovers, the fifth-fewest number in football. When you struggle as is on offense, you need to limit big possession-changing plays on that end of the field and force them on the other in order to stay afloat. Indy hasn’t done that.

Conversely, Dallas is fourth in offensive turnovers and seventh in defensive touchdowns, so basically the Cowboys have done the exact opposite of the Colts in that area of the game. Unsurprisingly, two of Dallas’ three losses came in games in which the Cowboys had multiple turnovers, which they have only done three times all season. If Dallas can keep that trend going, they should be able to cover the lofty spread.

Looking for more information about the NFL season? Here’s more!

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• NFL Thanksgiving: New York Giants vs Dallas Cowboys Betting Preview
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