McDavid, Oilers Look to Dim Stars in West Finals
Oilers vs Stars Expert Pick Keys on Oettinger
The Dallas Stars’ schedule rolls on as the Stars face Edmonton in the NHL Western Conference finals. Game 1 of the best-of-seven series is slated for Thursday at American Airlines Center in Dallas.
Dallas is -1.5 (+190) on the puck line and -130 on the moneyline for Game 1, with Edmonton +110 to win outright. Meanwhile, the projected total is 6 with a slight edge to the Over at -112 odds.
The Stars are also -125 favorites to win the series, compared to +105 for the Oilers.
Who has the edge? Read on as we break down both NHL teams and give our Oilers vs Stars expert pick.
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Expert Pick: Subscribe below to get our Premium Insights!Oilers vs Stars Betting Trends
The Edmonton Oilers are 41-53 against the puck line after covering just once in their seven-game series against Vancouver. Edmonton has been slightly more profitable for over/under bettors at 42-47-5, especially this postseason (7-4-1).
The Dallas Stars, meanwhile, are just 41-54 against the puck line. Dallas has been a big liability for bettors at home, covering only 31.2% of the time. As for the over/under, Dallas is only 47-47-1.
That’s important to remember when analyzing our Oilers vs Stars expert pick.
Game 1
Oilers vs Stars 
Records: Edmonton Oilers (57-30-7), Dallas Stars (60-25-10)
Date/Time: Thursday, May 23, 8:30 p.m. ET
Location: American Airlines Center, Dallas, TX
Streaming: TNT
Oilers’ Goaltending Situation Remains Tenuous
Edmonton has overcome shaky goaltending to return to the conference finals for the second time in three seasons. The Oilers will presumably stick with Stuart Skinner, who started Games 6 and 7 against Vancouver.
Skinner also saw the bulk of action during the NHL regular season, appearing in 59 games (57 starts) with varied success: 2.62 goals-against average and .905 save percentage.
Veteran backup Calvin Pickard played in Games 4 and 5.
There is immense pressure on Edmonton, being the last hope to end Canada’s 31-year drought without a Stanley Cup. Despite a brutal 3-9-1 start, which culminated with the firing of head coach Jay Woodcroft, the Oilers have been one of the betting favorites for the majority of the season.
Their Stanley Cup odds are now +280, slightly behind both Florida (+215) and Dallas (+260).
They’d likely be higher if not for Skinner’s inconsistent play. He owns a 2.87 GAA and .881 save percentage in 10 postseason games.
The Oilers — as evidenced by their 104 points — have been able to overcome those issues with the help of their dynamic offense.
They are averaging 3.83 goals per game while converting on a league-best 37.5% of their power play chances. Leon Draisaitl (24 points), Connor McDavid (21), Evan Bouchard (20) and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (16) all rank among the playoff’s top scorers.
When the Oilers’ offense is clicking, they’re tough to beat. They have won their last 10 NHL games when scoring at least five goals.
The last such loss came Feb. 21 at Boston (6-5 overtime). Be sure to keep that in mind when analyzing our Oilers vs Stars expert pick.
Oettinger Still Dallas’ Biggest Star
Only the President’s Trophy-winning Rangers had more points than Dallas. The Stars’ 26 regular-season road wins tied Florida for most in the NHL.
The Stars’ biggest edge is in goal with Jake Oettinger, who has a sparkling 2.09 GAA and .918 save percentage in 13 playoff games. Both are on par with his season NHL player stats.
Should Dallas go the distance, Oettinger will have a strong case for the Conn Smythe.
The Stars have already beaten each of the last two Stanley Cup champions, knocking off Vegas and Colorado in succession. The Stars faced early deficits in both series (2-0 to Vegas and 1-0 to Colorado), only to respond in short order.
The success of their defense — coupled with Oettinger being in goal — has been the Stars’ biggest calling card. But Dallas will likely need to do plenty of scoring of its own to keep pace with Edmonton.
Fortunately, it has a pair of dynamic forwards in Jason Robertson and Wyatt Johnston. There’s also Joe Pavelski, who’s been suspiciously quiet this postseason with one goal and three points in 13 games.
The Stars’ power play is converting at a 29% clip, so getting 5-on-4 chances will be key.
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