Bundesliga Relegation Play-offs Leg 1: Stuttgart vs Hamburg Odds
Bundesliga Side Stuttgart Favored to Win at Home
First Leg Kicks Off on Thursday
Currently unique to Europe’s top-five leagues, the Bundesliga employs a promotion/relegation playoff at the end of each season. The top two teams from the 2. This season, Heidenheim and Darmstadt have already booked places in the Bundesliga this season. Meanwhile, the bottom two teams from the Bundesliga, Hertha, and Schalke, are going down to the second tier. One place in the 2023-24 Bundesliga is still up for grabs, and it will be claimed by either Stuttgart or Hamburg. Stuttgart finished in 16th place in the Bundesliga this season, and they’ll take on a Hamburg side that finished third in the 2. Bundesliga on Thursday. The fixture will be played over two legs, with both teams getting an opportunity to host. Now, we’ll look at the first leg Stuttgart vs Hamburg odds.
Stuttgart vs Hamburg
Date, time:
Location: Mercedes-Benz Arena, Stuttgart, Germany
Head-to-Head
Stuttgart and Hamburg last met in 2020 in a 2. Bundesliga match. Stuttgart picked up a 3-2 win that day and defeated Hamburg in the second round of the 2019 DFB Pokal. The last five meetings are even, though, with two wins for each team and a draw. Both teams have also scored in the previous eight meetings of this fixture. The last time these teams met on their Bundesliga schedules was in 2018, and it finished in a 1-1 draw.
Stuttgart Finish Season Strongly
- Bundesliga Standings: 7-12-15, 16th
- Key Absences: D Dan-Axel Zagadou (Doubtful)
Stuttgart did not start their Bundesliga season strongly, but there are a couple of positive takeaways from their final few matches. They finished the season on a three-game unbeaten run and lost just one of their last eight Bundesliga matches. Stuttgart also found success in the DFB-Pokal, where they made the semifinal. In their second-to-last Bundesliga match, Stuttgart got a big 4-1 win over Mainz. Four players got on the scoresheet in that match, including Sehrou Guirassy.
Guirassy, an Ivorian forward, leads Stuttgart with 13 goals in all competitions in 2022-23. Stuttgart also only conceded 12 more goals than they scored this season while averaging 1.3 goals per game in the German top flight. Since the Bundesliga era started, Stuttgart has spent just four seasons in the second tier. During that same span, they’ve won the Bundesliga three times. However, the club has suffered two relegations in the last decade. While the away goals rule was still in place, Stuttgart most recently lost the relegation playoff to Union Berlin in 2019.
They returned to the Bundesliga a year later and have managed 9th, 15th, and 16th-place finishes in the three seasons since. Along with Guirassy, Borna Sosa and Wataru Endo are two critical players for Stuttgart. Sosa managed to tally double-digit assists this season from the left-wing back, and Endo is a steady presence in midfield. Defender Dan-Axel Zagadou is a doubt for Thursday’s match, though, with a foot injury.
Hamburg Looks to Extend Winning Streak
- 2. Bundesliga Standings: 20-6-8, 3rd
- Key Absences: D Mario Vuskovic (Doping Ban)
Hamburg were only one point off of automatic promotion to the Bundesliga. They won their last three matches of the season in the 2. Bundesliga by a combined 8-2 scoreline. With momentum on their side, Hamburg are looking to return to the Bundesliga for the first time since the 2017-18 season. Each season Hamburg have played in the second tier since they finished in the top four. They also finished in third place in the 2021-22 season but ended up losing the playoff to Hertha BSC. Hamburg won the away leg 1-0 in Berlin but fell 2-0 at home to stay in the 2. Bundesliga.
The Stuttgart vs. Hamburg odds do price Hamburg as road underdogs for Thursday’s match. However, their high-flying offense could undoubtedly pose some problems for Stuttgart. Robert Glatzel was second in the 2. Bundesliga with 19 goals this season. Hamburg scored the most goals in the second tier, with 70 in 34 games. They also averaged 2.4 goals per game over the last five matches of the season.
Key defender Mario Vuskovic was banned from German football for two years last November. He tested positive for a banned substance, but Hamburg did not miss a beat. Their defense has been a concern at times, though. They’ve only kept three shutouts in 2023 and will now face stiffer competition on Thursday. Hamburg will undoubtedly be motivated by last year’s blown lead in the playoff, too.
Match Analysis and Odds:
Stuttgart went just 5-6-6 at home in the Bundesliga in 2022-23, but they are favorites for this match vs. Hamburg. The home side show -165 odds to come away with a victory in Thursday’s first-leg matchup. Hamburg put together a 9-3-5 road record in the second tier this season. They also managed to defeat Hertha on the road in last year’s playoff. Still, Hamburg are +370 underdogs, and their winning streak is expected to be broken.
Notably, just one of the last ten matches between these two teams have finished in a draw. The Stuttgart vs. Hamburg odds currently list a draw at +290 odds. Returning home with the score all tied up would benefit Hamburg greatly. In their only match vs. a Bundesliga team this season, Hamburg fell 4-0, though. That is Hamburg’s most significant defeat of the season, and it came against RB Leipzig in the DFB-Pokal round of 32.
The spread is also currently set at one goal in favor of Stuttgart. The hosts show +115 odds to cover the spread, but they haven’t beaten Hamburg by more than one goal since 2012. At the same time, Hamburg -1 comes in at -135 odds. Regardless of the result, this is expected to be a high-scoring match. Over 2½ goals display -155 odds, and, again, both teams have scored in each of the last eight meetings of this fixture.
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