2023 Abu Dhabi Grand Prix Odds: Verstappen favored in season finale

Eight and a half months after lights out in Bahrain, we’re finally here. The finale of the Formula 1 season takes the grid to the Yas Marina Circuit in Abu Dhabi. Twenty cars will race under the lights for the second week in a row after a thrilling inaugural Las Vegas Grand Prix. The 2023 Abu Dhabi Grand Prix odds look very similar to most of the season, with Red Bull’s Max Verstappen favored for a record-setting 19th win.

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Abu Dhabi Grand Prix odds: picks for winner

Max Verstappen (-400)

This is Verstappen’s final week as the heavy favorite for a race win in 2023. With any luck, one of the other teams will close the gap to Red Bull and give another driver a chance to stand on the top step in 2024. But that likely won’t happen this week. Verstappen has won the last three F1 races in Abu Dhabi in cars nowhere near as good as this year’s RB19. He’s a slam-dunk choice, barring a crash.

Lando Norris (+1200)

Norris struggled in Las Vegas. Bad qualifying strategy saw him start much farther down the order than usual, and an unseen bump on the track surface caused him to lose control and crash out of the race. He comes to Abu Dhabi looking for a better result, but the McLaren isn’t suited for this track. The long straights and slow, sharp corners make it a rear-limited track. McLaren will likely be on the back foot compared to Ferrari, and a win is a big ask.

Charles Leclerc (+1600)

Las Vegas saw another pole he couldn’t convert to a win. He may have kept his lead in the race if it weren’t for a second safety car, period. That daring last-lap pass on Sergio Perez for second place was a nice consolation prize on race day. Ferrari should be strong again this week in Abu Dhabi, and he’ll benefit from that. A little more luck and the race could be his.

Carlos Sainz (+2200)

Sainz’ dramatic impact with a drain cover in Las Vegas started off a nightmare weekend for the Spanish driver. He worked his way up to points by the chequered flag, but it was a race of what might’ve been considering his pace in qualifying. The current F1 standings have him tied for fourth with Fernando Alonso and just five points ahead of Norris. A win would seal fourth, his best career finish in the championship.

2023 Abu Dhabi Grand Prix odds: pole position picks

Verstappen (-175)

Verstappen has just one pole position in the last four races. He no doubt has the best overall car, but it may struggle to match the pace on Saturday of the Ferraris or other cars. He’ll be in the top three, but the pole may be tough to reach as it has lately.

Leclerc (+350)

While Verstappen’s fallen behind on Saturdays, Leclerc’s picked up the slack. He has three pole positions in the last four races. Abu Dhabi is another circuit that’ll favor the Ferrari’s characteristics, and he can come through to start at the top of the grid once again.

Sainz (+1000)

Sainz was incredibly close to Leclerc in qualifying in Las Vegas. Coming to a race he knows better should suit the Spaniard, and he’s started in the top six in each of the last three years.

2023 Abu Dhabi Grand Prix odds: podium and points finishes

Oddsmakers favor Verstappen (-800), Norris (-140), and Perez (-120) for the podium. Here are other good options:

Leclerc (+175)

If not for a plank disqualification in Austin, Leclerc would have three podiums in the last four races. On-track, he’s been near the front consistently and should again in a car that favors the Abu Dhabi circuit.

Fernando Alonso (+1200)

A first-corner spin doomed Alonso’s race in Las Vegas. It’s a shame, considering his uptick in pace earlier on the GP F1 calendar in Sao Paulo. The Aston Martin should have a better go at things in Abu Dhabi and he could surprise in the finale of a season that initially showed so much promise for the two-time F1 world champion.
Oddsmakers favor Verstappen (-1200), Norris (-700), Perez (-700), Sainz (-600), Leclerc (-600), George Russell (-600), Lewis Hamilton (-600), Oscar Piastri (-400), and Alonso (-300) for points, along with Esteban Ocon, Lance Stroll, and Pierre Gasly at even odds. Here are other good choices:

Alex Albon (+175)

The Thai driver couldn’t convert a very strong qualifying performance into a good race finish in Las Vegas, crossing the line in 12th by the chequered flag. The Abu Dhabi should theoretically suit the Williams well, given the long straights and slow corners. It’s tough to find value picks in this field, and he’s one of them.

Valtteri Bottas (+225)

If the Finn didn’t have bad luck, he’d have no luck at all lately. But the Alfa Romeo looked very good in qualifying in Las Vegas, and another crack at it could give him a chance to score points for the first time since Qatar.

2023 Abu Dhabi Grand Prix odds:predictions for the weekend

One last event for a 2023 season that’s seen records shattered by Red Bull and Verstappen. That won’t change too much in Abu Dhabi where Verstappen can set multiple new season records in Formula 1 history.
Leclerc will have the edge again in qualifying, but Verstappen will once again get him back in the race. Alonso surprisingly rounds out the podium to give Aston Martin a big boost heading into the offseason. Look for Albon to sneak into the points once again, as well.
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