Two races of the Formula 1 season’s latest tripleheader are in the books. F1 Championship winner Max Verstappen swept both races in Austin, Texas, and Mexico City to set a new record for wins in a season with 16. This week, the final race of the tripleheader brings the Formula 1 grid to São Paulo, Brazil for the Brazilian Grand Prix. The weekend is the final sprint weekend of the 2023 season but the Formula 1 Brazilian GP odds are just for the Grand Prix race and qualifying. Here’s how the odds look.
Brazilian Grand Prix Odds for Victory
Max Verstappen (-400)
Verstappen hasn’t let up since securing the championship in Qatar. Two consecutive wins have him miles in front of the field in the Formula 1 standings. Brazil is one of his best circuits throughout his Formula 1 career; Verstappen has a perfect F1 record of points finishes throughout seven career races there, even in his time in Toro Rosso (now AlphaTauri).
The Autódromo José Carlos Pace is more front-limited than rear-limited due to more fast, flowing corners. The Red Bull’s been the best car at almost every track this year and Brazil likely won’t be different. Verstappen’s won here before (2019) and should continue his domination again.
Lewis Hamilton (+800)
Hamilton’s likely the best challenger this weekend to Verstappen’s dominance. The Mercedes was surprisingly quick in Brazil last season and, with an improved car this year, will likely shine again. The latest update the team brought to Austin would’ve helped Hamilton to consecutive podiums if not for a disqualification in the U.S. Grand Prix due to plank wear.
Hamilton’s three wins in Brazil are the most among active drivers. He took second to teammate George Russell last season by just 1.5 seconds. The sprint weekend format means less practice time and experience will be key. He’s got more than almost everyone else on the grid and he’ll be a threat to win should Verstappen or Red Bull slip up. A win here could put him second in the Formula 1 standings ahead of Verstappen’s teammate Sergio Perez.
Lando Norris (+1400)
Norris’ spirited drive in Mexico City saw the Brit make up 12 places in Sunday’s race. He’s now finished eighth or better in 11 consecutive Formula 1 races. Only Verstappen can match that figure. Norris could be in for a good result this weekend. The McLaren package is quick on front-limited circuits like Brazil and could be in the mix for a good result should Verstappen falter.
Formula 1 Brazilian GP Odds: Pole Position
Verstappen has just two Grand Prix pole positions in the last six races in Japan and Qatar. Qualifying here could be similar to a few others on the F1 schedule, like Austin. The deficit in qualifying may be marginal enough for other drivers to make way. Verstappen should be the favorite for pole position this weekend but may find himself starting lower down once again.
Hamilton may be the best choice for pole position here. His pace in Austin was at the same level as Red Bull’s for much of the weekend, including qualifying. Again, this is one of his favorite tracks and, as one of the most experienced drivers on the grid, this could be his opportunity for just his second pole position this season.
Charles Leclerc (+800)
Leclerc’s now two for two in this tripleheader so far in pole positions that fail to convert to wins. His one-lap pace continues to impress but Ferrari picked the wrong strategy in Austin and damage took him out of contention in Mexico City. He likely won’t have the pace to get a win in Brazil but a third consecutive pole position isn’t out of the picture.
George Russell (+1200)
Russell enjoyed his first career win here last season. He’s been on the back foot compared to teammate Hamilton for much of 2023 but has improved over the last six races. He will likely have the car to compete for pole position. But can he get a Grand Prix pole position for the first time since Hungary last season?
Formula 1 Brazilian GP Odds: Podium Finish
Favorites: Verstappen (-700), Hamilton (-175), Norris (-140)
This trio leads F1 betting for good reason. They’ve been three of the best drivers over the last few races and have the cars to race to the top of the order. There’s a chance, either through strategy or racing incidents, that one or more of these drivers don’t make it to the rostrum. Here are some other good options:
Again, Russell raced very well in Brazil last season and could do so again. Mercedes’ updates have benefitted both cars and will keep him in contention. He could have the race pace or strategy to get by Norris at some point during the race on Sunday.
Oscar Piastri (+400)
Piastri hasn’t been on an F1 podium since Qatar but he could surprise here. This will likely be McLaren’s best track for the rest of the season and Piastri’s taken opportunities when presented with them. Should first-lap incidents take out multiple drivers (like it did last season), Piastri could be in the right place to take advantage.
Formula 1 Brazilian GP Odds: Points Finish
Favorites: Verstappen (-1200), Norris (-800), Hamilton (-800), Perez (-600), Carlos Sainz (-600), Leclerc (-550), Russell (-550), Piastri (-500), Fernando Alonso (-200), Esteban Ocon (-110), Pierre Gasly (-110)
Oddsmakers like the usual 11 drivers to get a points result this weekend in Brazil. This group is the typical combination of favorites on a weekly basis but others could break through.
Yuki Tsunoda (+140)
After helping teammate Daniel Ricciardo to fourth on the starting grid, Tsunoda made his way from 18th to 12th in the Mexico City Grand Prix. Tsunoda’s been one of the more impressive drivers in 2023. The AlphaTauri is far from the fastest car but he’s done a great job of making the most of opportunities. It won’t be the fastest car this weekend but the track layout could play into Tsunoda’s hands.
Valtteri Bottas (+225)
Bottas enjoyed some success in Brazil during his time with Mercedes, including a pole position and second-place result in 2017. Last season, he took an Alfa Romeo that was struggling for points from 14th on the starting grid to ninth by the chequered flag. He couldn’t make the most of a good qualifying result in Mexico City. But with a sprint weekend format, he could make the most of it here.
Brazilian Grand Prix predictions
It’s easy to choose a Verstappen win here as he has at an incredible rate in 2023. This time around, we predict he’ll take a podium but not on the top step. Instead, that’ll go to polesitter Lewis Hamilton. Norris will round out the podium in third place. Tsunoda makes a surprise appearance in the top 10 by outpacing one of the Alpine drivers and a damaged front-runner.
If you’re looking for better payouts, go for a Russell pole and podium as well as a Bottas points finish.
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