F1 Italian GP Odds: Verstappen set for record-breaking win in Monza

The Red Bull-Verstappen combination looks unstoppable still heading to the Temple of Speed

The Dutch Grand Prix treated fans and drivers to one of the more dynamic races of the season. Rain at the start of the race and the closing laps threw the grid out of order as teams scrambled to make the correct call. Ultimately, it didn’t matter; Max Verstappen earned his record-tying ninth win in a row. This week, Formula 1 heads to one of the fastest Formula 1 races on the calendar: the Italian Grand Prix at the Monza Circuit. Nicknamed “The Temple of Speed”, the track features many high-speed straights that will play to Red Bull’s strengths. Fittingly, Verstappen leads the F1 Italian GP odds for victory this week.

Oddsmakers like Verstappen to make history

Winning nine races in a row in Formula 1 is no small feat. Only four other drivers in the sport’s history have reached seven consecutive wins: Nico Rosberg, Michael Schumacher, Alberto Ascari, and Sebastian Vettel. Of that group, Vettel’s the only one to go further, with nine wins in a row to close out 2013. Verstappen’s now matched that with his win on home soil in Zandvoort.

Now, the stage is set for Verstappen (-450 for victory) to make history this weekend in Italy. Drivers average more than 160 mph over the 3.6-mile course, the fastest average on the 2023 F1 schedule. The Red Bull is strong everywhere but has a distinct advantage with its Drag Reduction System (DRS). Even if someone manages to get by Verstappen, he’ll likely reel them in quickly.

As of Monday morning, there is a chance of rain for Sunday’s race. However, that didn’t matter in Zandvoort, as Verstappen kept in front even after the showers came and went. He’s the favorite, and anyone else standing on the top step seems unlikely. Unless a late safety car changes the order, or he has to retire for some reason, he’ll make F1 history again this weekend.

If you’re looking for someone else to win this week, Verstappen’s teammate Sergio Pérez (+900) has the next-best F1 odds thanks to the same Red Bull package. Beyond him, Lando Norris (+2000) or Charles Leclerc (+2500) look like the best bets. Both have been quick at high-speed races, with McLaren racing well at Silverstone and Ferrari in Belgium.

F1 Italian GP odds for pole position, podium, and points

Though he’s -450 for the win on Sunday, Verstappen’s just -250 for pole position. Red Bull is dominant in race trim but has a weaker track record on Saturdays in 2023. The team has a perfect win record, but three races have seen a different team on pole position.

Ferrari’s seen success with Leclerc in qualifying in Baku and Spa-Francorchamps, another pair of high-speed circuits on the schedule. At +1000 for pole position, he’s a great low-risk, high-reward bet. He’s a better choice than Pérez (+800), who’s often struggled in qualifying this season.

Last season, eight drivers received penalties for taking extra power unit elements in Monza. Thanks to the high-speed nature of the track, it’s easier for drivers to make up the places if need be. This way of thinking may repeat this weekend, so do not be surprised if the starting order for Sunday’s race looks a bit unusual.

Oddsmakers point to Verstappen (-800) and Pérez (-150) finishing on the podium at the Italian Grand Prix. From there, it’s close between Lando Norris (+150), Fernando Alonso (+175), and Lewis Hamilton (+175). Last year, Hamilton finished fifth and Norris seventh in objectively worse cars than their respective packages this season.

Pérez has a good track record of points finishes in Monza but hasn’t made the podium since 2012. Both Alonso and Hamilton will be at a disadvantage due to the Aston Martin and Mercedes’ lack of straight-line speed. Instead, look for Leclerc (+335) to make a podium appearance despite Ferrari’s struggles in races lately. Monza is a more forgiving place for strategy than Zandvoort, thanks to a layout that encourages passing.

Oddsmakers favor 12 drivers to finish in the top 10 and earn F1 points. Verstappen (-1400), Alonso (-700), Hamilton (-700), Pérez (-700), Norris (-600), George Russell (-500), Leclerc (-450), Oscar Piastri (-400), Carlos Sainz (-335), Alex Albon (-225), Pierre Gasly (-140), and Esteban Ocon (-110).

Of those drivers, Gasly and Ocon are most likely to miss out. Alpine had a fantastic weekend in Zandvoort with Gasly’s podium finish. But the team’s struggled at high-speed tracks this season, and that will likely continue here.

Outside of those 12 drivers, Lance Stroll (+110) is likelier to break into the top 10. Stroll’s recent results have paled compared to teammate Alonso and Norris. The latter’s resurgence with a better McLaren package has him nearly 30 points clear of Stroll in the F1 drivers championship. The Aston Martin may not suit Monza, but it’s one of Stroll’s best tracks in his F1 career. He could find enough pace to score points once again.

Italian Grand Prix predictions

After an exciting Dutch Grand Prix jumbled up the usual running order, the F1 Italian GP odds predict things will return to normal.

Verstappen looks like a lock for a record-setting 10th win in a row. A Leclerc pole position will delight the passionate Italian fans who gather annually for Ferrari’s home race. The two of them and Norris look like a good podium combination. If you’re going outside of the favorites for points, look for Stroll to finish in the top 10.

For F1 betting, odds analysis, and more, visit Point Spreads Sports Magazine.


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