2023 NLCS MVP Odds: Bryce In His Veins
Bryce Harper Is Huge NLCS MVP Favorite
With the Philadelphia Phillies’ second-straight NLDS defeat of the incredibly explosive Atlanta Braves officially in the books, the 2023 National League Championship Series matchup is set. The Phillies will take on the upstart Arizona Diamondbacks in a battle between a pair of Wild Card teams who won 90 and 84 games respectively. The winners get a ticket to the World Series against either the Texas Rangers or the Houston Astros. So, there’s no better time than the present to take a look at the 2023 NLCS MVP Odds to think about who might be the hero that allows their team to win the pennant.
Of course, because the Phillies are the favorites here, it’s a bit more likely that a member of Rob Thomson’s team will take home the hardware for this series. But, that isn’t to say that a few of the best baseball bets today are members of the Diamondbacks that have a really good chance to play outsized roles in this best-of-seven series. Last season, Bryce Harper was the NLCS MVP for the Phillies who beat the San Diego Padres en route to the Fall Classic.
Harper looks like a great repeat candidate, particularly if he can replicate his huge NLDS showing. But, it’s a pretty loaded odds list so let’s go through the most likely NLCS MVP candidates with an eye toward who might provide some underrated value.
Bryce Harper: +400
Attaboy, Harper! It’s not a surprise that Harper has the best odds of being the NLCS MVP considering his star stature, tendency to come up big in clutch moments and how much his personality fits with that of Phillies fans. After committing a brutal baserunning mistake that ended Game 2 — and hearing about it from some Braves after the game — Harper redeemed himself with a pair of monstrous home runs in Game 3 to help lift Philadelphia over Atlanta.
If Harper wants the Phillies to have another shot at being World Series winners, he’ll need more of those big-game heroics. Philadelphia has a deep lineup but everything starts and ends with Harper, who has shaken off his early-season, post-injury power struggles to return to being, well, the Bryce Harper he has been his whole career. There’s a reason he is by far the NLCS MVP favorite. Oh, and he has a career 1.017 OPS in the postseason.
Corbin Carroll and Trea Turner: +800
Carroll is the presumptive NL Rookie of the Year and is an elite power + speed + defense threat. In his first taste of the playoffs, he is batting .412 and has hit a pair of big home runs in each of the Diamondbacks‘ series. The concerns over his midseason shoulder injury are long-gone and he is the engine that makes Arizona’s inconsistent but dangerous offense go. It’s hard to believe the Diamondbacks winning this series without a monster performance from Carroll which is why he’s probably a better bet than Trea Turner, who is also +800.
The MLB betting lines interestingly have Turner above every Phillie other than Harper in terms of MVP odds. His redemption arc in his first season in the red-and-white-(and sometimes-power-blue) provides for a great narrative, and he has been awesome in the postseason. But, even someone like Nick Castellanos or Alec Bohm (+1800) would be better values with how up-and-down Turner’s production tends to be.
Kyle Schwarber and Christian Walker: +1200
Walker is Arizona’s best pure power threat with 69 total home runs over the past two MLB seasons. He was also part of that legendary four-homer inning Arizona had against Lance Lynn in the 3rd inning of Game 3 of the NLDS. Walker strikes out a ton but he can flip a game quickly if he gets up with men on base. If he comes through in a few of those run-producing opportunities, then he could shake up the 2023 NLCS MVP odds in a big way.
Schwarber is in a similar position to Walker in that he really only provides upside value here if he knocks in a few multi-run homers (or other extra base hits). He’s even more all-or-nothing than Walker and is 4-for-25 so far in the playoffs. There are better options to pick than Schwarber.
Pitcher Options — Zac Gallen and Zack Wheeler: +1600
The 2023 NLCS MVP odds are heavily discounting each team’s top starting pitchers despite the fact that their respective aces — South Jersey native Gallen for the Diamondbacks and workhorse Zack Wheeler for the Phillies — will line up against each other in Game 1 and, if the series isn’t a sweep in either direction, will make at least two starts apiece.
In an age of increased reliance on bullpens (and reduced willingness to risk overusing starters), it’s much harder for pitchers to take home MVP awards in the playoffs just because they don’t pitch as much as they used to. The last pitcher to win a CS MVP in either league was Justin Verlander in 2017. All he did in that ALCS was allow one run over 16 innings. It’s not impossible for Gallen or Wheeler to make enough of an impact that they can notch this award, it’ll just require the perfect set of circumstances.
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