Blue Jays vs Reds Odds: Hunter Greene Expected to Start on Saturday
Greene's Return Pushed Struggling SP Luke Weaver Out of Rotation
The Toronto Blue Jays are more than ten games over .500 in the American League. However, they’re third in the AL East and third in the AL Wild Card standings.
If the playoffs ended today, the Blue Jays would be in the playoffs. They’d be the final team standing in the American League Wild Card. With such a substantial record in the Major League Baseball standings, it’s mind-blowing that the Jays are holding on to life support in the American League.
The Mariners and Red Sox are closing in on the Blue Jays for that final spot.
Meanwhile, the Blue Jays will face the Cincinnati Reds in an exciting interleague matchup. The Reds compete with the Phillies, Giants, Marlins, Cubs, Diamondbacks, and Padres for third NL Wild Card spots. They’re also not far away from the top spot in the NL Central.
Therefore, this three-game weekend series between the Reds and Blue Jays will significantly impact respective standings.
Reds Designate Luke Weaver for Hunter Greene
Luke Weaver was the only starting pitcher the Reds gave a major league contract to in 2023. It was a disaster!
He concluded his time with the Reds with a 6.87 ERA. He also had a WHIP of 1.64 and struck out only 85 batters in 21 starts.
He was given his fair share but never came through for the Reds.
With this move, the Reds expect to have Hunter Greene available to pitch in Weaver’s spot moving forward. Green landed on the 60-Day IL with a hip injury. He pitched in Triple-A on Tuesday, allowing one unearned run on one hit and three walks in 5.2 innings. Green struck out nine batters.
The Reds are in the playoff hunt. Adding Greene to the rotation will benefit the club immensely. He landed on the injured list after earning a 3.93 ERA in 14 starts this MLB season.
Look out for Greene’s return on Saturday.
Let’s Talk Bullpen
The Blue Jays might have the most impressive bullpen in baseball.
Jordan Romano returned from the injured list earlier this week after missing two weeks with a back injury. He’ll pitch in high-leverage situations, along with names like Jordan Hicks, Erick Swanson, and Tim Mayza.
Toronto should get Chad Green and Trevor Richards off the injured list as early as this weekend.
The Blue Jays will be fighting for a playoff spot throughout the rest of the season. Having fresh arms and many reliable pitchers will be crucial to their success.
Toronto got all of the injuries out of the bullpen early on. The group should be ready to go as early as Game 1 of this series against the Reds.
If you want some MLB predictions, here’s one.
The Blue Jays will have the best bullpen in the major leagues regarding ERA from the middle of August until the end of the MLB season.
Below are the probable pitchers and Blue Jays vs Reds odds for the interleague MLB matchup.
âš¾ Game 1 âš¾
Jose Berrios vs Brandon Williamson
Jose Berrios will take the mound for Game 1 of the weekend series. He has been OK against right-handed bats. But the right-hander has struggled against lefties. Lefties have clubbed a .164 ISO and wOBA of .370 against Berrios over the last 30 days. He’s also walked nearly 10% of lefties in that span with just 21.1% of strikeouts.
Berrios will face off against left-hander Brandon Williamson. Williamson has improved over the last 30 days. He’s only allowed a .152 ISO and wOBA of .274 to his previous 110 batters. His strikeouts are also very high against righties in that span.
Toronto hasn’t had much success against lefties lately. Bo Bichette could return to the lineup, which would help. But you can’t expect someone away from the MLB lineup to perform quickly after coming off the injured list. The offense will limit strikeouts, but the power is not against lefties right now, including guys like Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and George Springer.
On the other hand, the Reds have had many lefties hitting for power against righties recently, including Elly De La Cruz, Will Benson, and Joey Votto. Other righties have put up solid numbers too.
Although the Blue Jays have the better overall record, I’d take Cincinnati when looking at the Game 1 Blue Jays vs Reds odds. The Reds are +115, while the Blue Jays are -135. The total is at 10, with both sides at -110. Ride the Reds in Game 1.
âš¾ Game 2 âš¾
Chris Bassitt vs Hunter Greene
In the second game, Chris Bassitt will get the call. Bassitt, like Berrios, has done well against right-handed batters but has struggled against lefties.
Bassitt has watched his last 71 lefties hit a .190 ISO and wOBA of .311 in the previous 30 days. He’s also allowed 40% of fly balls and has induced just 28.9% of ground balls against lefties over the last 30 days.
Again, the Reds’ lefties have legitimate potential against Bassitt. With Hunter Greene on the mound, Cincinnati’s likely feeling good.
Greene struck out over 31% of batters this season and has held lefties to a .123 ISO and wOBA of .281. Righties have had more success against Greene, but that’s only when teams can hit him.
Toronto has produced great against righties between Brandon Belt, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., and Cavan Biggio. But the lineup has hit at an average rate over the last month against righties.
The Reds legitimately have the better matchup in this second game as well. Greene should be able to get through six innings in his first game back.
âš¾ Game 3 âš¾
Hyun Jin Ryu vs Graham Ashcraft
In the final matchup, Hyun Jin Ryu will get the start. The left-hander has dominated righties, holding his last 44 righties to a .098 ISO and wOBA of .268. He’s been worse against lefties, but he’s only faced 11 lefties since returning from the injured list.
Cincinnati hasn’t been nearly as good against lefties, hitting a .135 ISO and wOBA of .316 with the projected lineup against lefties. Only Kevin Newman, Matt McLain, and Spencer Steer have been on point over the last month against lefties. The projected lineup has also struck out 24% of the time against lefties.
Conversely, Graham Ashcraft will get the start for the Reds. He’s held his last 125 batters to a .150 ISO and wOBA of .285 in the previous 30 days. Ashcraft can earn a high rate of ground balls but isn’t a high-strikeout thrower like his teammate, Greene.
The Blue Jays vs Reds matchup will likely be a low-scoring affair between Ryu and Ashcraft.
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