Cardinals vs Rays Preview: Can Tampa Bay Survive Rash of Pitching Injuries?

The Tampa Bay Rays will host the St. Louis Cardinals for a three-game set starting Tuesday at Tropicana Field. For the opener, Tampa Bay is -1.5 (+135) on the run line and a -175 favorite to win outright, with St. Louis priced at +155. The projected total is 8.5, with the Over juiced to +100. The Under is -120.

Read on as we break down those odds in our Cardinals vs Rays preview.

Injuries Slowing Tampa Bay

After a blistering 20-3 start to the season, the Tampa Bay Rays have fallen back to the pack a bit in the Major League Baseball standings. The Rays are just 10-11 since the All-Star break and have dropped 3.0 games behind the Baltimore Orioles in the American League East. Despite that, they still comfortably lead the wild card and are a -3000 lock to make the playoffs, according to MLB odds.

Injuries to the rotation have continued to pile up for Tampa Bay. Presently, five starters are on the injured list, including Shane Baz (Tommy John surgery), Jeffrey Springs (Tommy John surgery), Drew Rasmussen (flexor strain), and Shane McClanahan (forearm strain). McClanahan, who is 11-2 with a 3.29 ERA, was also on the IL last month with a back strain.

To help address their rotation concerns, Tampa Bay acquired right-hander Aaron Civale from the Cleveland Guardians at the trade deadline. But it cost them one of their top prospects, slugging first baseman Kyle Manzardo. Civale lasted just 4.2 innings in his Tampa Bay debut, allowing three runs on nine hits in a 4-2 loss to the Detroit Tigers on Saturday.

Just 10-18 since the start of July, Tampa Bay is still an AL co-favorite at +350 and is among the World Series favorites at +700.

St. Louis Keeps Sinking

The St. Louis Cardinals have been a colossal disappointment this season, and that’s putting it mildly. After coming out of a spring training a -120 favorite to win the National League Central, the Cardinals have bottomed out. They’re currently in last place in the division with a record of 49-64, 9.5 games back of the wild card MLB standings.

As such, the Cardinals sold off some parts at the trade deadline, dealing pitchers Jordan Montgomery (Texas), Jack Flaherty (Baltimore), Jordan Hicks (Toronto), and shortstop Paul DeJong (Toronto). In return, the Cardinals received several prospects to help jump-start them in the future.

St. Louis’ pitching staff has struggled mightily this season, ranking 23rd in ERA (4.52) and 26th in WHIP (1.44). The rotation has made the sixth-fewest quality starts in baseball, a problem that may only get worse following the deadline deals.

Opponents have continued to jump on St. Louis pitching early in games. The Cardinals have allowed 77 runs in the first inning this season, the fourth-most in baseball. Their ERA during that frame is 5.58.

Odds Outlook

Tampa Bays owns a 58-56 record against the run line, including 29-27 at home. Its 51.8% cover rate at home is tied for the fourth-best in MLB behind the Texas Rangers (63.3%), Cincinnati Reds (57.9%), and Chicago Cubs (53.3%). Conversely, St. Louis is just 56-57 ATS but 31-24 on the road. That’s important to remember when analyzing the Cardinals vs Rays preview odds.

Signed to a three-year, $40 million contract last December, Eflin has been a revelation with Tampa Bay. Eflin is second in MLB with 12 wins and owns a 3.46 ERA and 1.00 WHIP. His 7.1 K/BB ratio is a career-best. The Cardinals will counter with Mikolas, who is returning from a five-game suspension after throwing at Cubs outfielder Ian Happ in a 10-3 loss on July 27. The 34-year-old right-hander is 6-7 with a 4.29 ERA and is tied for the MLB lead with 24 starts.

This will be the ninth appearance but just the third start for Hudson, who is transitioning to the rotation following the trades of Flaherty and Montgomery. Hudson was fantastic in his last start, Aug. 2 against the Minnesota Twins, pitching seven innings in a 7-3 win. The right-hander allowed three runs while striking out seven and retired the first 11 batters he faced.

The Rays have yet to name a starter. Presumably, they could go with right-hander Tyler Glasnow, who was scratched from Sunday’s start against the Tigers with back spasms. A bullpen game is another option. Glasnow was named the AL Pitcher of the Month for July, registering a 2.11 ERA in six starts. Be sure to check on his status while assessing the odds in this Cardinals vs Rays preview.

Littell is 2-2 with a 3.58 ERA. Making just his fifth start of the season, Littell tossed six shutout innings in an 8-0 victory over the Tigers Friday. He faces Liberatore, who is 1-4 with an unsightly 6.93 ERA. The 23-year-old left-hander, a first-round draft pick of Tampa Bay’s in 2018, has allowed 49 hits in just 37.2 innings.

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