Could Corbin Carroll Earn The Most Stolen Bases in 2024?
Ronald Acuna Leads The MLB Stolen Bases Leader Odds
Last season, Ronald Acuna Jr. led the MLB with 73 stolen bases. He was able to steal so many bases after leading the league in hits with 217.
Acuna Jr. also hit .337 and had an OPS of 1.012. Ultimately, Acuna Jr was on base in nearly 42% of plate appearances.
With that, he was able to steal plenty of bases and win the NL MVP Award in 2024.
Acuna Jr. is currently the favorite to earn the most stolen bases in 2024. However, the Braves outfielder already has a knee injury that has kept him out of Spring Training games. He’ll be ready for Opening Day, but that could be one reason to stay away from Acuna Jr. in 2024 regarding stolen bases.
Let’s talk about the 2024 MLB stolen bases leader odds below.
MLB Stolen Bases Leader Odds
| Top Stolen Bases Leader Candidates | Odds |
|---|---|
| Ronald Acuna Jr. | +150 |
| Esteury Ruiz | +250 |
| Elly De La Cruz | +600 |
| Corbin Carroll | +700 |
| CJ Abrams | +800 |
MLB Stolen Bases Leader Odds Preview
Ronald Acuna Jr. (+150)
Although Acuna Jr. has had some major MLB injuries over the last couple of seasons, he played 159 games last year.
That was only the second season of his career, where he played more than 119 games. Therefore, that’s the only genuine concern with Acuna Jr.
If Acuna Jr. stays healthy, he’ll likely have another career season. Last year, Acuna Jr. hit 41 home runs and still stole 73 bases, thanks to a .416 OBP.
He was ultimately the NL MVP for a reason. He can do it all offensively. He’s the type of player the league hasn’t really ever seen. This is a guy who hit more than 40 home runs and finished with a WAR of 8.1.
Meanwhile, the Atlanta lineup hasn’t changed much. Ozzie Albies, Matt Olson, Marcell Ozuna, and others are still batting behind him. Having good batters behind you who understand the assignment goes a long way.
Esteury Ruiz (+250)
There’s no doubt that Esteury Ruiz is the fastest player in the MLB.
He played his first full season with the Athletics last year, earning 130 MLB games played. He stole 67 basses and was caught 13 times, which is an incredible rate. He stole a base 84% of his attempts last year.
The issue with Ruiz is his average and on-base percentage. Ruiz only saw 449 at-bats and added just 114 hits in those 449 at-bats.
He finished 2023 with a .254 average and an OBP of .309. In comparison, Acuna Jr. had an OBP of .416. That doesn’t bode well for Ruiz.
Unlike Acuna Jr., Ruiz doesn’t have that protection in the lineup. Instead, he’s on the potentially worst MLB team this season. Although Ruiz swiped 67 bags, he still finished with a WAR of -.2.
Ruiz is electric on the basepaths, but his low OBP will hurt his chances of achieving the highest MLB stats for stolen bases.
Elly De La Cruz (+600)
When Elly De La Cruz debuted in 2023, fans were highly impressed. He started his rookie season on fire but quickly returned to life towards the second half of the season.
De La Cruz will need to develop and be more consistent this season. Last year, through 98 games, De La Cruz hit .235 and had an OBP of .300.
He stole 35 basses in 98 games, but he also struck out 144 times out of the 388 at-bats.
When betting in this market, you want to look for fast players with a high average and on-base percentage. What good is speed if the player strikes out very quickly?
While De La Cruz had a poor OBP last year, he’ll at least get to play with a Reds team that will compete for the MLB playoffs. He’s got more protection in the lineup and maybe less pressure heading into his second season in the MLB.
Still, he wouldn’t be our first choice for this market.
Corbin Carroll (+700)
Corbin Carroll is undoubtedly someone on our radar.
He played in 153 games last MLB season and saw 565 at-bats. In those 565 at-bats, he hit a .285 average with a .362 OBP.
More importantly, in his true rookie season, he stole 54 basses and was only caught five times in the entire season. Carroll might not be as fast as Acuna Jr., Ruiz, or De La Cruz. But he’s good at getting quality leads and jumps to the next base.
Carroll will ultimately have more opportunities than De La Cruz and Ruiz just from getting on base more on a game-to-game basis. At +700, you can consider Carroll if you believe Acuna will find a way back onto the injured list this year.
CJ Abrams (+800)
This is another wicked-fast player who didn’t hit for much average last year. In 151 games with the Nationals, Abrams hit a .245 average with an OBP of .300.
The expectations are that he develops as a better contact hitter and gets on base more this season. But until we see it, it’s hard to justify a +800 price for a guy who got on base just 30% of the time last season.
The Verdict
There are a few speedy minor league players who could eventually be in the Majors this season. But players missing any portion of the season have little to no chance of stealing the most bases.
For what it’s worth, Fangraphs like Ruiz to earn two more stolen bases than Acuna. However, they also think Ruiz will have an OBP of .319, which might be pushing it.
Still, Fangraphs values Carroll reasonably. The ZIPS projections like Carroll and De La Cruz to both add 39 stolen bases. However, Carroll’s price is +700, which is 100 points lower than De La Cruz’s.
You’ll like those MLB odds if you trust Ruiz to get on base enough. We don’t. The Athletics will rarely score this season, and Ruiz won’t be on base very often. Just look at the MLB scores from last year when Ruiz was playing.
Therefore, we’d roll with Carroll at +700.
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