2024 AL Cy Young Opening Odds: Mixed Bag
Gerrit Cole's Injury Status Shakes Things Up
For most of the offseason and Spring Training, the 2024 AL Cy Young odds were pretty cut and dry. The Yankees’ Gerrit Cole easily won the 2023 AL Cy Young — after five previous top-five finishes across both leagues — and was poised to be a heavy favorite to repeat once again this season.
Then, just a few days ago, a report broke that Cole was dealing with some unusual elbow fatigue when recovering from his Spring appearances and that he would be undergoing what was deemed a “precautionary” MRI.
Well, that was on Monday and as of Wednesday afternoon, there have been no additional updates other than that the Yankees want to have as many eyes on the test results as they can get.
That’s far from promising and all indications right now are that New York is hoping Cole only misses some time and isn’t shut down for the entire 2024 season. As far as the MLB odds for this year’s AL Cy Young winner go, that completely opens up the field for the most prestigious award a pitcher can get in the Junior Circuit.
Granted, even 4 or 5 months of Cole would be an extremely intriguing Cy Young option but if he misses any more time than that, the chances of him repeating would be slim at best.
So, guys like Kevin Gausman, Luis Castillo, Framber Valdez, Dylan Cease (whom the Yankees might look to trade for) and others are firmly in the mix. Let’s go through some potential options for the award.
Corbin Burnes (+800)
Burnes is an interesting option on the AL Cy Young odds and while his value across certain sportsbooks isn’t consistent, he did win the NL Cy Young award in 2021 and could be reinvigorated by his trade to the upstart Baltimore Orioles.
He has been durable — 32 starts in 2023 and 33 starts in 2022 — but his strikeout rate decline in each of the past two seasons is definitely concerning.
But, in this relatively weak AL field, if Burnes can replicate his 2022 campaign, then he is a legitimate contender. His numbers last season don’t pop off the page but he led the NL in WHIP and struck out 200 batters. That’s not something to scoff at.
Luis Castillo and Pablo López 
(+850)
Castillo had a very nice year in his first full campaign as a member of the Mariners, starting 33 MLB games en route to his third All-Star selection. Allowing 28 home runs — nearly doubling his HR/9 from the year prior — did not help his ERA, though, and the long ball is definitely an area of concern heading forward.
On the bright side, it could just have been a blip for him and if he cuts the home run rate down, then he can bring the 3.39 ERA back down around 3.00 where it was in 2022. He’s a nice option at +850.
You can also get the Twins’ López at the same value following his career year in Minnesota. He was one of the MLB leaders in strikeouts (234) as he whiffed nearly 11 batters per nine innings.
He did manage to keep his walk rate low but allowed over eight per nine innings, which is just too much contact. López is definitely someone to watch but the peripheral numbers are a bit concerning and he doesn’t have the track record as some of these other guys.
Kevin Gausman (+900)
Gausman has been dealing with a fatigued shoulder in Spring so that is certainly something to watch. He led the AL with 237 strikeouts in just 185 innings in 2023, underlying how he has become the unlikely ace of the Toronto rotation.
With three-straight top-nine Cy Young finishes, Gausman has established himself as an elite pitcher despite never eclipsing 192 innings in any MLB season.
He’s always a smart take at +900 and it looks like the shoulder issue that has slowed him down won’t cost him much, if any, regular season time.
Tarik Skubal (+1000) and Framber Valdez 
(+1100)
Skubal and Valdez are two lefties that provide some nice value on the AL Cy Young odds. Skubal got a late start to last season after recovering from flexor tendon surgery but, after debuting in July, posted an impressive 2.80 ERA in 80 innings with some sparkling peripheral numbers — 2.00 FIP, 0.896 WHIP, 11.4 K/9 — so he is an obvious candidate to break out in 2024. He looks healthy and the Tigers are thrilled about his development.
Outside of allowing some more home runs, Valdez had a very similar 2023 campaign to his 2022 campaign. He really struggled in the postseason yet is still as reliable as they come which is much-needed for an Astros rotation dealing with some MLB injuries right now.
He won’t wow you with his strikeout numbers. The name of the game is run prevention, though, and he’s very good at it. +1100 is a great price for him.
The Rest:
- George Kirby (+1200)
Cole Ragans (+1500)
Gerrit Cole (+2000)
Dylan Cease (+2000)
The 26-year-old Kirby is another Mariner who should be in the Cy Young mix again after using his impeccable control — he led the Majors with 0.9 walks allowed per nine innings in 2023 — to put together an awesome first full-season.
Both he and Ragans, whom the Royals got at the deadline last year for Aroldis Chapman, have the look of future aces. Ragans had a 2.64 ERA in 12 starts for Kansas City to close the season and he was dominant at times, striking out over 11 batters per nine innings. The MLB player stats for him are enticing.
As mentioned before, Cole is still an option so long as he isn’t out until June or July, not to mention the entire season. He’s probably the best pitcher in baseball — non-healthy-deGrom version — so counting him out isn’t wise.
Cease is someone that could replace Cole in New York after the White Sox have dangled him in trade talks for months. He wasn’t good last season, pitching to a 4.58 ERA, but the combination of some abnormal wildness, uncertainty over his MLB standing with Chicago and the White Sox being terrible likely playing a role in how ineffective he was. A change of scenery could make him a steal at +2000 considering how he was the Cy Young runner-up in 2022.
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