The NL MVP Race Is Wide Open in 2024
Our NL MVP Odds Preview Breaks Down The Top 5 Candidates For The Award
The MLB regular season begins this month!
Ultimately, when the MLB season begins, it means we’re closer to summer weather in the United States and Canada.
Because there are 162 games in the MLB, baseball can be hard to predict when it comes to futures. The outcomes in the standings are completely different compared to many analysts’ projections.
This isn’t the NFL, where they play 17 games. In the MLB, significant MLB injuries hurt a team much more. If an NFL player is out for two weeks, he’ll miss two (or three games). If an MLB position player is out for two weeks, he will miss around 12 games.
It’s also hard to replace an ace on the mound or a star player in the batting lineup.
There will always be comparisons between every sport. But playing baseball at the highest level is probably one of the hardest things to do. Therefore, an MLB MVP is the ultimate award.
In the MLB, there are two MVPs: one for the National League and another for the American League. We’ll assemble an NL MVP odds preview with some sleepers and best bets to consider before the season begins.
NL MVP Odds
Check out the odds for the NL MVP Award as we approach the 2024 MLB season.
| Top NL MVP Candidates | Odds |
|---|---|
| Ronald Acuna Jr. | +400 |
| Shohei Ohtani | +500 |
| Mookie Betts | +700 |
| Fernando Tatis Jr. | +900 |
| Freddie Freeman | +1100 |
NL MVP Odds Preview
Ronald Acuna Jr. (+400)
I wouldn’t want to be Ronald Acuna Jr. before the season. Not at +400, at least.
Acuna Jr. had his right knee examined, and it was declared that he had right knee discomfort due to irritation around the meniscus. Acuna Jr. told the media that he would be able to play today if needed, but since we’re in MLB spring training, he’s taking it slow.
Acuna Jr. expects to be ready for Opening Day. But that’s already a slight scare before the season. We’re not betting him at the highest probability of winning the award with an injury scare before the season begins.
That said, Acuna Jr. hit .337 last season with 41 home runs and 106 RBIs. He also had a 1.012 OPS and was easily one of the best players in the MLB last season.
Those numbers were good enough for Acuna Jr. to win his first NL MVP in his career. He could certainly put up these numbers again. We don’t see the value in betting Acuna Jr. at +400, knowing he already had a significant injury scare before the season.
Shohei Ohtani (+500)
Shohei Ohtani is now in the NL after signing with the Dodgers in the off-season. Although he won the MVP in two of the last three seasons with the Angels, he had previously been the DH and started as a pitcher.
This year, Ohtani won’t pitch, he’ll only hit. That would likely sway voters to take someone else. It feels like you always have to pick Ohtani to win the MVP if he pitches and hits at the numbers he puts up. But since he will only hit this year, there’s less value on Ohtani to win the award.
Plus, he’ll have to get acclimated with his new MLB team. That could take some time, too. Of course, he’ll bat in the back of Mookie Betts and front of Freddie Freeman. That’s crazy protection.
Ohtani hit .304 with 44 home runs and 95 RBIs last season. He also had an OPS of 1.066, which led the league.
The only reason to pick Ohtani is if you think that he’ll put up better numbers this season by being able to only focus on hitting this season.
Mookie Betts (+700)
Mookie Betts was one of the MLB mvp winners earlier in his career with the Boston Red Sox from 2018. However, he hasn’t won another one since.
Still, Betts hit .307 with 39 home runs and 107 RBIs last season and had an OPS of .987.
His RBI numbers were impressive, especially with Betts typically leading off. The Dodgers got guys on base in the bottom portion of the lineup for Betts to have that success.
That’ll likely be the same this year. The Dodgers’ lineup is stacked. It’s just unlikely that Betts will continue his power numbers from last season. Betts had a career-high 39 home runs and played 152 games, which was the second-most in his career.
Can he really replicate that for a chance at winning the MVP this season?
Fernando Tatis Jr. (+900)
Hold up.
Fernando Tatis Jr. only hit .257 last season with 25 home runs and 78 RBIs in 141 games. Now, he doesn’t have Juan Soto in the lineup, and we think Tatis Jr. will put up the same numbers as the other guys above.
His OPS dropped from .975 in 2021 to .770 in 2023. San Diego is also worse on paper than last season’s team, which ultimately missed the MLB playoffs.
We’re not buying the Tatis Jr. hype.
Freddie Freeman (+1100)
Freddie Freeman had 102 RBIs last season. He’ll likely do much better this year, with Betts and Ohtani hitting in front of him.
The only concern is Betts and Ohtani’s power numbers. Those two can bring everyone home before Freeman even gets up to the plate.
Still, Freeman smacked a .331 average with 29 home runs and 102 RBIs. He’ll need to see at least 40 home runs if he wants to be in the conversation for the NL MVP this season.
Any Sleepers?
Corbin Carroll played 153 games for the Diamondbacks in his true rookie season. In those 153 games, Carroll smacked 25 home runs and earned 76 RBIs while adding 54 stolen bases. He was only caught five times and hit .285 with an OBP of .362.
The Diamondbacks have some momentum this year after making the MLB World Series last year. Carroll is a name to watch out for.
He’s got legitimate pop and creates havoc on the basepaths. After winning the NL Rookie of the Year last season, he could improve and compete for the NL MVP. At +2000 odds, why not give him a shot after reading our NL MVP odds preview?
For MLB betting news, odds analysis, and more, visit Point Spreads Sports Magazine.
