Twins Favored, Tigers Expected to Make Jump in AL Central
AL Central MLB Odds: Minnesota Projected for 86.5 Wins
Can anyone dethrone the Minnesota Twins atop the American League Central? Three weeks from Opening Day, the Twins are the only MLB team in the division projected to finish above .500.
That said, a lot can happen in 162 games, so the Twins are by no means a lock.
To prepare bettors for the season, we break down the latest AL Central MLB odds and projected win totals for each club.
Chicago White Sox
- Over 63.5: -105
- Under 63.5: -115
It’s shaping up to be another long summer for the White Sox, whose 63.5 projected wins are the third-fewest in the majors behind Oakland (56.5) and Colorado (60.5). The White Sox lost 101 MLB games under new manager Pedro Grifol, their most since 1970.
Any hopes for a turnaround are shortsighted. There is far too much uncertainty up and down the roster. Right-hander Dylan Cease bears watching after his name was floated all offseason in trade rumors.
Chicago’s MLB AL Central odds are low enough that it might be able to play poorly and still top 63.5 wins. Regardless, backing the White Sox is a risky gamble — literally and figuratively.
Cleveland Guardians
- Over 78.5: -120
- Under 78.5: +100
In steps a first-year manager Stephen Vogt, a former catcher who spent the 2023 season as the bullpen and quality control coach with Seattle. The 39-year-old Vogt has big shoes to fill, replacing Terry Francona, the winningest skipper in franchise history (921).
The Guardians won only 76 MLB games in 2023, their fewest in a full season since 2012 and well under projections (87.5).
Aside from hiring Vogt, this notoriously frugal franchise stayed relatively quiet this offseason. Cleveland ranked 27th in the majors in runs scored and 30th in homers, so it will be counting on bounce-back seasons from the likes of Andres Gimenez, an All-Star in 2022. The Guardians also need more from ace Shane Bieber, whose velocity is reportedly a tick up this spring.
There’s a lot of variables at play when assessing Cleveland’s +350 MLB divisional odds.
Detroit Tigers
- Over 80.5: -115
- Under 80.5: -105
The Tigers were a pleasant surprise last season, exceeding expectations (69.5) with 78 wins. That was good enough for second place in the AL Central, albeit 9.0 games behind Minnesota.
Can they take another step forward?
Detroit’s lineup has some bright spots, namely former No. 1 overall pick Spencer Torkelson, who broke out last season to slug 31 homers. On the mound, left-hander Tarik Skubal is looking to replicate a strong performance post-injury.
The Tigers may be able to keep pace with Minnesota on the 2024 MLB schedule if Torkelson, Skubal, and others continue to produce. However, if unexpected roadblocks get in the way, they could easily finish below .500 for an eighth straight season.
Kansas City Royals
- Over 73.5: -120
- Under 73.5: +100
Bobby Witt Jr. announced his arrival as one of baseball’s brightest young stars during an otherwise miserable 106-loss season for Kansas City. Witt Jr. hit 30 homers, stole 49 bases, and led the majors with 11 triples. In turn, the Royals rewarded the 23-year-old shortstop with an 11-year, $288.5 million extension in February, the largest contract in franchise history.
Kansas City’s lineup is still awfully sparse, lacking another proven bat besides catcher Salvador Perez. So, another tough season may be in order. The Royals have not finished above fourth in the division since 2017.
On the bright side, left-hander Cole Ragans (113 strikeouts in 71.2 innings in 2023) has top-of-the-rotation type stuff.
Minnesota Twins
- Over 86.5: -115
- Under 86.5: -105
The Twins are coming off an 87-win season in which they surpassed expectations (83.5) and won their first AL Central title since the COVID-shortened 2020 year. They also won their first MLB playoff game in 19 years, albeit in a 3-1 Division Series loss to Houston.
Oddsmakers expect the Twins to build off that, pricing them -115 favorites to repeat in the division. They are also +900 to win the AL, matching the fifth-shortest odds on the board.
Minnesota returns largely the same core aside from right-hander Sonny Gray, who left for St. Louis in free agency. The Twins had the major’s sixth-lowest ERA last season (3.87).
Former No. 1 overall pick Royce Lewis looks like a star-in-the-making, but he and the oft-injured Byron Buxton need to stay healthy for the Twins to cash in on their AL Central MLB odds and reach their potential.
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