NL East Regular Season Win Total Odds
Braves Should Cruise To The Over
The Atlanta Braves won their sixth-straight NL East title in 2023 and it wasn’t particularly close so they’re big favorites to do so again in 2024. Atlanta went 104-58, a full 14 games ahead of the second-place Philadelphia Phillies who they lost to — for the second-consecutive year — in the NLDS. Even with the Braves’ curious playoff struggles, Atlanta has a loaded roster with a somehow-improved bullpen and rotation. Their NL East MLB odds are heavily favored for them as a result.
The Mets, Marlins, and Nationals might all be better than expected, but they probably won’t pose much of a collective threat to the Braves or Phillies at the top. None of those MLB teams had particularly inspiring offseasons and, even though Miami made the postseason in 2023, their MLB win total odds aren’t predicting a return visit.
Let’s run through each team and assess whether they’re likely to go over their totals or if an underwhelming season is in the cards.
Atlanta Braves: 101.5 wins (over -110 / under -120)
On paper, there doesn’t seem to be any reason why the Braves will be worse in 2024 than they were in 2023. Last season, their over/under was 94.5 games which Atlanta blew past by nine wins.
The Braves lost some pitching depth in free agency but responded by trading for starter Chris Sale and reliever Aaron Bummer and signing reliever Reynaldo López. All three of those guys are legitimate impact arms, and Sale can be a huge difference-maker if healthy.
Still, though, the NL East MLB odds run through Atlanta because of the Braves’ fearsome lineup, which is mostly unchanged. They led baseball in most major offensive categories in 2023 and are led by baseball’s (likely) best overall MLB player, Ronald Acuña Jr, fresh off an MVP campaign and MLB’s first 40-70 (home runs and steals) season.
It’s weird that the under is juiced here because the Braves should definitely win at least 102 games.
Philadelphia Phillies: 90.5 wins (over -115 / under -115)
The Phillies barely beat their 2023 win total over/under (88.5 wins) by going 90-72. But, yet again, they had an impressive MLB playoff run before losing in the NLCS to the upstart Arizona Diamondbacks. They’re also pretty much running it back with the same group, other than the addition of Whit Merrifield as a nice utility option around the diamond.
Philadelphia’s big moves were keeping who they already had. The Phillies brought Aaron Nola back in free agency and extended Zack Wheeler for another four years, crystallizing one of baseball’s best rotation duos.
The expert picks are split on the Phillies because they aren’t as good as Atlanta, but with such a strong and durable top of the rotation to go with a power-heavy lineup, they should be right around that 90-win threshold yet again.
Whether they go over or under is a judgment call yet questions in the bullpen and back half of the rotation might push them to the under.
New York Mets: 81.5 wins (over -110 / under -120)
The 2024 MLB lines are, safe to say, not as bullish on the Mets as they were before the 2023 season. After New York won 101 games in 2022 and then signed Justin Verlander in the offseason, it felt like the Mets were here to stay as consistent contenders.
Then, they missed their 94.5 win total over/under by nearly 20 wins after trading Verlander and Max Scherzer midseason during an incredibly disappointing 75-87 year.
Expectations in Flushing are understandably tempered after new president of baseball operations David Stearns didn’t add any star-level players this winter.
New York acquired a bunch of mid-level starters to shore up a rotation filled with question marks — which will be missing ace Kodai Senga for at least the first month of the season — as well as picking up some middle-leverage relievers and Harrison Bader to play center field.
New York’s offensive core is not bad, but the iffy rotation really holds this team back. It should win more than 82 MLB games, yet that’s wholly dependent on whether the Mets can get bounce-back performances from multiple starting pitchers.
Miami Marlins: 78.5 wins (over -105 / under -125)
Miami’s NL East MLB odds are actually up from a year ago when their win total over/under was 76.5. However, the current 78.5 figure would be a marked decline from their 84-78 in 2023, which was good enough for a Wild Card berth.
Sure, Miami was swept in two games by the Phillies but just making the postseason was a big surprise and it earned Skip Schumaker the NL Manager of the Year award.
It won’t be easy for the Marlins to replicate that season-long performance because staff ace Sandy Alcántara is out for the MLB season due to Tommy John surgery and because the lineup — outside of perennial batting title contender Luis Arráez, trade deadline pickups Josh Bell and Jake Burger and the up-and-down Jazz Chisholm — there just isn’t a ton of offensive upside. The young rotation is very impressive but they can’t produce runs for themselves. It makes sense why the under is juiced to -125.
Washington Nationals: 66.5 wins (over -110 / under -120)
Dave Martinez’s team is definitely on the rise, and the wave of top prospects from Washington’s stocked Minor League system will slowly shuffle into D.C. over the next few seasons. Still, this season is going to be a trying one for the Nationals, who were a surprising 71-91 in 2023 after having a 61.5 win total over/under.
Washington has plenty of nice pieces, and some key young players—like Keibert Ruiz and C.J. Abrams—took big steps last season, but the Nationals still have plenty of growing pains to undergo.
The pitching, particularly in the rotation, is an adventure after Mackenzie Gore and Josiah Gray, so getting to 67 wins in a decent NL East is far from a certainty. Look for the Nationals to, once again, be a competitive 4th or 5th place team that will have to fight and claw to overcome their win total over/under.
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