NL Central Over/Under Win Totals: Cubs, Cardinals the Favoites
NL Central MLB Odds: Oddsmakers Fading Defending Champion Brewers
MLB spring training standings are in full swing, with teams readily preparing for the start of the 2024 season. The National League Central is shaping up to be among the most competitive divisions, with the Chicago Cubs and St. Louis Cardinals penciled in as co-favorites three weeks from Opening Day.
What does that mean for the Milwaukee Brewers, who won the division last season? They could very well be taking a step back.
To get bettors ready for the season, we break down the latest NL Central MLB odds and projected win totals for each club.
Chicago Cubs
- Over 84.5: -115
- Under 84:5: -105
Chicago won the back pages this offseason, plucking Craig Counsell from rival Milwaukee and re-signing outfielder/first baseman Cody Bellinger to a modest three-year, $80 million contract. The Cubs also added Japanese left-hander Shota Imanaga and re-signed veteran reliever Hector Neris.
Counsell, who guided Milwaukee to five MLB playoff appearances in eight seasons, brings instant credibility and respect to the clubhouse.
The Cubs won 83 MLB games last season and were in the playoff hunt before fizzling in late September. They’re poised to take another step forward in 2024, with oddsmakers pegging them as +185 co-favorites to take the division.
Anything short of a playoff appearance would be a bitter disappointment in the Windy City.
Cincinnati Reds
- Over 82.5: -105
- Under 82.5: -115
Despite a tough second half in which they went 32-38, the Reds finished above .500 last MLB season (82-80) for only the second time in a decade.
Now the Reds — who had been projected for just 66 wins — must show whether they can build on that success.
Cincinnati has a lot of potential in its lineup. Top prospects Elly De La Cruz, Matt McLain and Christian Encarnacion-Strand are all looking to replicate strong debuts at the plate.
The Reds could very well contend atop the division if those youngsters take another step in their development. They could also easily finish fourth if too many experience growing pains or can’t replicate their initial success.
Milwaukee Brewers
- Over 77.5: -115
- Under 77.5: -105
The defending NL Central champions are seemingly in cost-cutting mode after trading Corbin Burnes, one of the top MLB players, to Baltimore for prospects. Sensing that, oddsmakers are fading the Brewers, whose projected win total has dropped to 77.5. That’s a steep decrease from this time last year (84.5).
The Brewers have some decent veteran bats in Christian Yelich, William Contreras and Rhys Hoskins, whom they signed to a two-year, $34 million deal. But there’s a lot of pressure on new manager Pat Murphy, Counsell’s bench coach for the last eight seasons in Milwaukee, to pick up where his predecessor left off.
Pittsburgh Pirates
- Over 74.5: -115
- Under 74.5: -105
Pittsburgh finished 76-86 in 2023, a stark improvement over back-to-back 100-loss seasons and above its projected win total of 67.5. Although they’ve made some good moves, including extending All-Star pitcher Max Keller for $77 million, the Pirates are still very much a work in progress. Another sub-.500 season seems to be the likeliest outcome.
The Pirates have the No. 1 overall pick in last year’s draft in Paul Skenes. Skenes has already been told he won’t make the Opening Day roster, as he threw only 6.2 innings in the minors after helping lead LSU to the College World Series title. But do not expect him to stay down for long.
He will headline a youth movement that also includes shortstop Oneil Cruz and catcher/outfielder Henry Davis, the first overall pick in 2021. The Pirates are the biggest longshot on the NL Central MLB odds board at +1600.
St. Louis Cardinals
- Over 84.5: -115
- Under 84.5: -105
The Cardinals poured resources into bolstering their pitching, signing free-agent starters Sonny Gray, Lance Lynn, and Kyle Gibson. Unfortunately, an MLB injury to Gray, who could begin the season on the injured list with a hamstring strain, has already thrown a wrench into that plan.
If that trio can provide both length and stability in the rotation — which again, is already in flux — the Cardinals seem capable of challenging Chicago for the division crown. After all, the Cardinals have been tabbed +185 co-favorites on the NL Central MLB odds board.
With Paul Goldschmidt, Nolan Arena and Willson Contreras atop the lineup, the Cardinals have enough hitting.
But last year’s 90-loss season — their first since 1990 — has cast some serious doubt about their ability to win.
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