NL Cy Young Odds: Strider the Early Favorite
Atlanta, Dodgers Both With Pair of Cy Young Candidates
The National League Cy Young Award is up for grabs in 2024. Last year’s runaway winner, Blake Snell, hasn’t signed with any team, though the Angeles are thought to be the favorite.
The No. 2 through No. 5 vote getters are all back for another season, but the Dodgers’ Yoshinobu Yamamoto could complicate things, as could his new teammate Tyler Glasnow, who moved over from Tampa Bay. The NL Cy Young odds have Atlanta’s Spencer Strider as the early favorite, although his odds are still pretty generous.
Spencer Strider (+550)
Strider probably should have finished a little higher than fourth in the NL Cy Young voting last year. He was the only pitcher in Major League Baseball to win 20 games and he led both leagues with 281 strikeouts.
His ERA was a little higher than the voters wanted to see, however, as his 3.86 ERA was the highest of any pitcher to receive Cy Young votes. Strider’s 20-5 record is hard to overlook and Atlanta was 26-8 in all the games he started, including the playoffs. He’s a logical favorite, but by no means a sure thing.
Zach Wheeler (+800)
Wheeler finished sixth in last year’s NL Cy Young voting, going 13-6 with a 3.61 ERA for the Phillies. Philadelphia went 22-14 in all of his starts a year ago. Wheeler allowed 168 hits and 39 walks in 192 innings, while striking out 212.
Philadelphia did give him 5.42 runs of support last year, which is a good thing. The 2023 season was the first time since the 2019 season he had an ERA above 3.00.
Logan Webb (+950)
Webb finished second in last year’s NL Cy Young voting, which is a bit remarkable considering he had an 11-13 record. The Giants were just 15-18 in the 33 games he started, so it wasn’t a case of San Francisco winning his no decisions.
You can’t really blame Webb too much for his record, however, as the Giants gave him just 3.09 runs of support per game. He was the only pitcher in either league to receive Cy Young votes with a losing record.
Webb led Major League Baseball with 216 innings pitched last season and recorded 194 strikeouts. He allowed just 31 walks and 201 hits with a 3.25 ERA. He has struggled in MLB spring training this season, making three starts and having an 8.64 ERA.
Yoshinobu Yamamoto (+1000)
Yamamoto is one of the most heralded players to come over from Japan. The Dodgers gave him $325 million over 12 years, so they definitely have faith in him. He’s had one strong start and one clunker in spring training, but is slated to start the Dodgers second game of the season.
Zac Gallen (+1200)
Gallen had solid back-to-back seasons for the Diamondbacks. He finished third in the NL Cy Young voting last season after going 17-9 for Arizona. Gallen’s ERA was a little higher than you’d like, at 3.47, but he struck out 220 in 210 innings, while allowing 188 hits and 47 walks.
Gallen did struggle slightly in the playoffs, with Arizona losing his last four postseason starts.
Max Fried (+1200)
Fried was solid when he was able to pitch last season, but missed a good portion of the year due to hamstring and forearm injuries. The southpaw was 8.1 with a 2.55 ERA and 80 strikeouts in 77 2/3 innings when he did pitch. Fried should get plenty of run support from Atlanta, which gave him 6.0 runs per start last year. If healthy, he’s one of the best in the game.
Kodai Senga (+1400)
Senga finished seventh in the NL Cy Young race last year in his rookie season for the Mets. He was 12-7 with a 2.98 ERA and fanned 202 in 166 1/3 innings. Senga allowed 126 hits, but did walk 77 batters. His 14 wild pitches led the league, so he needs a little more control to build on his solid season.
Tyler Glasnow (+1400)
Glasnow comes to the Dodgers from Tampa Bay and he’ll probably see a little more than the 4.18 runs he received last year. The Dodgers averaged 5.53 runs per game a season ago. Glasnow did miss some time once again last year and has never pitched more than 120 innings in a season.
The Dodgers are one of the popular MLB picks to win the World Series and a healthy Glasnow would be a big boost toward that goal.
Aaron Nola (+2200)
The MLB scores show it was a pretty rough year for Aaron Nola in 2023. Nola was 12-9, but had a 4.46 ERA. Philadelphia gave him 5.56 runs per start or the win-loss record would have looked a bit worse.
Nola did strike out 202 in 193 2/3 innings, but allowed a career-high 32 home runs among the the 178 hits he surrendered. He is capable of bouncing back, although it’s a little tough to take him here.
Who to Bet On?
From a value standpoint, the pitcher who makes the most sense is Fried. He plays for a solid offensive team and is more of a proven commodity than Strider. The two give Atlanta a solid 1-2 punch at the top of the rotation, but Fried looks to be a safer bet for a big year.
With the NL Cy Young odds showing +550 for Strider and +1200 for Fried, you have to take the better price and nab Fried in this spot.
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