Mets vs Padres Betting Preview: Analyzing the MLB Matchup

We start our Mets vs Padres betting preview with a look at each team’s power numbers because we think it will play a major role in cashing your Friday tickets. The 2023 MLB home run team leaders list shows the New York Mets with 109 homers (9th in baseball). They’re led by slugger Pete Alonso’s 25 bombs (3rd in MLB). Francisco Lindor has added 17 (13th in NL) and Francisco Alvarez with 15 (19th in NL).

The Padres don’t have the threat of a Pete Alonso but are just four behind New York in team homers (105). Led by Fernando Tatis’ 16 homers in 67 games, the Friars have five players with at least 10 home runs. San Diego is a -120/+110 consensus favorite in game one, with the total sitting on 8 (+100/-120). We continue our Mets vs Padres betting preview with a look at both MLB teams from a betting perspective.

Mets Making The Long Climb to Respectability

With one game remaining at Arizona, we’re not sure if four straight wins mean everything is good again in Queens, but Mets fans will tell you they have to start somewhere. New York is still 40-46, 18 games in back of the Atlanta Braves and 6.5 games out of a wild card spot with plenty of baseball to play.

Their team payroll ($344.2 million) is always mentioned when dissecting the Mets’ problems, but maybe a road trip that takes the team through Arizona and San Diego to end the first half is exactly what Buck Showalter’s team needs. On paper, it looks like another favorable MLB pitching match-up for the Mets with Justin Verlander (3-4, 3.66) getting the Friday start.

The 9-time all-star has been terrific over his last few starts, allowing just 10 hits in his last 12 innings, while shutting out both the Giants and Milwaukee Brewers in that span. Verlander has three quality starts in his last five outings, despite the Mets dropping three of the five.

No matter how well the 40-year-old is throwing, the fact remains that New York hasn’t given the future Hall of Famer much run support in 2023 (3.39) In six of his 11 starts, Verlander has enjoyed more than four runs just three times and more than three-five times. Overall, New York is 4-7 when the 18-year vet gets the ball and 2-3 (-94 units) when an underdog over the last five MLB seasons. Let’s continue our Mets vs Padres betting preview by focusing our attention on the San Diego Padres.

Padres Can Sympathize With New York

There couldn’t be another match-up on the MLB schedule that would feature two teams who spend a ton of money on payroll, only for it to result in below .500 records. Besides the St. Louis Cardinals (35-51, -2061 units), there are no other teams that are bigger disappointments with each combined with a combined 3275 units lost for bettors in 2023.

Only the Kansas City Royals (-2697), Cardinals, and Oakland Athletics (-2026 units) are worse. Making it difficult to handicap a game when you have two teams spinning their wheels with a combined payroll of 590.3 million. Bob Melvin’s Padres (41-46) have won three straight games but are still nine games behind the Arizona Diamondbacks in the West and six games out of the final wild-card spot.

That makes this Mets vs Padres weekend series an early must-see with both teams trying to put the other behind them in the MLB standings. San Diego will send Yu Darvish (5-6, 4,84 era) to the mound in game one. Darvish has been hit hard in his last three starts, giving up 14 earned runs in his last 16.1 innings.

Just like it’s a battle of two teams looking to meet expectations, we have a pitching match-up looking to do the same. Let’s conclude our Mets vs Padres betting preview with our official selection.

Padres Power Their Way to Series Win

For us, this comes down to which line-up is deeper because we can’t rely on either starter for the time being. As mentioned earlier, we still have faith in the Padres line-up, despite not having anyone with the power of Alonso. It’s more about reliable depth when we put our money down.

The Mets are 22nd in baseball in total bases (1147) and 21st with a .239 average and 19th in OBP (.318). These numbers are right in line with what the Padres produce, but it’s the constant long ball threat that will be the difference in a tight series making our official selection the San Diego Padres (-137) in game one. That does it for our Mets vs Padres betting preview, we wish you nothing but the best with your wagers this weekend.

For MLB betting news, odds analysis, and more, visit Point Spreads Sports Magazine.

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