MLB: Marlins vs Dodgers Series Preview

With both teams cashing unders of late, this isn’t the time to go against that trend

With a 10.5-game lead in the National League West, the Los Angeles Dodgers have all but wrapped up their 10th division crown in the last 11 seasons. However, the Boys In Blue trail the Atlanta Braves by four games in the overall National League standings, ensuring bettors that LA won’t be looking ahead to the postseason.

The Marlins have lost two straight games but still are tied for the final wild-card spot with the Chicago Cubs and Cincinnati Reds. Los Angeles will send Tony Gonsolin to the bump (8-4, 4.24 era) against Sandy Alcantara (5-10, 4.09 era) for the Miami Marlins. Opening odds show the Dodgers as a -132 favorite, with the total sitting at 8.5 (-120 over). The first pitch is scheduled for 10:10 pm ET / 7:10 pm PT from Dodger Stadium.

We start our Marlins vs Dodgers series preview by looking at both teams from a betting perspective.

Marlins logo Marlins vs Dodgers Dodgers logo

Day/Time:
Location: Dodger Stadium

Public Knows When To Pound The Fish

There is quite a difference between the Dodgers and Marlins in the Major League Baseball standings, a 12-game difference, but that hasn’t stopped the public from betting on the Marlins heavily in game one.

You can be sure of two things: bettors love to put their cash behind Sandy Alcantara and have a knack for betting the Marlins at the right time. This season when Miami receives 70% of the ML dollars, bettors are 14-7, but that’s only good enough to squeeze out a small 100-unit profit because the Fish are 0-7 as a favorite of -135 to -143, playing a massive role in diluting their profitability.

When the public loses, it’s because the Fish have lost in that window, eating up profits. Currently, 87% of the early money is coming in on the Marlins, although we can anticipate that percentage to even out after the West Coast wakes up.

The problem with betting Alcantara is that the righty has cost his backers plenty in 2023 with 757 units lost behind a 9-15 Marlins record when the Dominican native gets the start. Alcantara has electric stuff, but he is also the least profitable pitcher on the Marlins staff due to losses and high moneylines.

We have a much better option regarding tonight’s MLB prediction. Let’s continue our Marlins vs Dodgers series preview by focusing on the Dodgers.

Sweet Spot For Los Angeles

This MLB season, it took a minute for the Dodgers to catch fire for bettors, but once they did, the public was usually all-in on LA. Tonight may end up not being one of those games because of the bettor’s consistent love for Alcantara, but tonight’s number has been a sweet spot for the public and bankroll friendly.

When Los Angeles is a -150 favorite or less, bettors have turned a cool 561 units of profit in 2023. That continues a trend that dates back to 2020, where betting the Dodgers as a -150 favorite or less has turned a profit of 1157 units, only the Giants (+2261), Mariners (+1672 units), Red Sox (+1323 units), and Tigers (+1264 units) have been better.

However, It’s important to note that tonight’s starter Tony Gonsolin is one of the few Los Angeles pitchers who have not been great in that spot, with a 7-12 record (-643 units) since 2019 as a -150 favorite or less. Perhaps that has played a role in the public shying away from Los Angeles.

We conclude our Marlins vs Dodgers series preview with our official game one selection.

This Is Totally The Only Way To Bet On Tonight’s Game

The side numbers don’t lead us down a path to a clear winner, so let’s jump over to the total which is 8.5. Early tickets have shown a small number of under wagers that haven’t been strong enough to move off the total, but a likely indication of where the juice might go throughout the day.

We’re going to recommend the under in game one, which means that betting this number as early as possible will ensure that you’ll get the best return possible. -115 to the under is the consensus number out there now after opening -110 each way.

This play is soft on the bankroll and we’re getting two starters that should be on their ‘A’ game against each other. That concludes our Marlins vs Dodgers series preview; we wish you all the best with your wagers this weekend.

For MLB betting news, odds analysis, and more, visit Point Spreads Sports Magazine.


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