Phillies vs Blue Jays Odds: Philadelphia’s Surging Despite Previous Series Loss

Philadelphia's Sitting on High Probability of Playoff Appearance

August 15, 2023 129 4 minutes readMLB Picks & Parlays

Phillies vs Blue Jays Odds: Philadelphia's Surging Despite Previous Series Loss — Tim Nwachukwu/Getty Images/AFP

The Philadelphia Phillies will take on the Toronto Blue Jays in a two-game series starting Tuesday.

The Phillies and Blue Jays are locked in a Wild Card spot in their respective divisions. However, the Phillies probably have more wiggle room than the Blue Jays.

Philadelphia has the first spot in the NL Wild Card and is still the fourth-best team in the MLB National League standings. Meanwhile, the Blue Jays have that third AL Wild Card spot, with the Mariners just 1.5 games behind them.

We’re getting closer to September. The regular season will be over quickly. Can one of these teams earn a two-game sweep in this interleague matchup?

Here’s a look at the Phillies vs Blue Jays odds for the pivotal series between two playoff hopefuls.

Philadelphia’s Playoff Odds Have Increased

The Phillies lost a three-game series to the Minnesota Twins over the weekend. The series started well, with the Phillies earning a 13-2 win on Friday. But Philadelphia dropped Saturday and Sunday and lost their first series since late July.

The Phillies were basically a .500 team in late July. Now they’re 65-54 and in first place in the NL Wild Card. They’ve come a long way and are now projected to earn a playoff spot in the National League.

This is similar to last year’s team. The Phillies struggled to begin the season. But they stormed back, earned a Wild Card berth, and made it to the World Series.

The Phillies are sitting at -800 to reach the postseason. That would not be one of the best MLB bets today. But it’s eye-opening after another poor start to the season for the Phillies.

Toronto’s Opening Day Starter Optioned Again

Alek Manoah was optioned to Triple-A for the second time this season. Manoah has gone 3-9 and has a 5.87 ERA with a WHOP of 1.74 this season.

At home, he’s got an ERA of 8.15 and doesn’t have a win. It’s been a drastic downfall for Manoah, who looked like a promising ace just a year ago. Maybe it’s confidence, or perhaps it’s his delivery. But whatever it is, Manoah isn’t the same.

Once Hyun-Jin Ryu returned, the Blue Jays went to a six-man rotation. But they will transition back to a five-man rotation, and Manoah was the odd man out.

Ryu returned from Tommy John surgery and has pitched much better than Manoah since returning. It was an easy decision for the Blue Jays to make.

Last year, Manoah made the All-Star game and finished third in the AL Cy Young voting. He finished with a 2.24 ERA and had a WHIP of .99.

It makes no sense how he’s fallen off like this. For his sake, I hope he figures it out. But for now, he’ll be in the minors to return to his usual self.

Toronto’s still got plenty of good pitching. Here’s a look at the Phillies vs Blue Jays odds and probable pitchers for the two-game series.

Game 1

Zack Wheeler vs. Yusei Kikuchi
Tuesday, 7:07 p.m. ET

Zack Wheeler will take the bump in Game 1 of the two-game series. He’s got a 9-5 record with a 3.74 ERA on the season.

Wheeler has kept walks down over the last 30 days and has allowed a .269 wOBA to his previous 128 batters. However, he’s given up a .187 ISO, which is a bit high. He’s also induced just 33.3% of ground balls over the last 30 days. There are areas to attack Wheeler.

Still, Wheeler has a 28.1% strikeout rate in the last 30 days. It’ll be hard for the Blue Jays to make contact against Wheeler.

Wheeler will take on left-hander Yusei Kikuchi of the Blue Jays. Kikuchi has allowed a .047 ISO and wOBA of .257 against his last 117 batters. He’s also struck out nearly 25% of batters and has kept his walks under 7%. Kikuchi is getting a lot of ground balls and giving up very few fly balls.

But he hasn’t always been this good. Kikuchi has allowed a .184 ISO and wOBA of .323 to 510 batters this season.

The Phillies have a lot of potential against lefties, including Bryce Harper, Nick Castellanos, Trea Turner, and Alec Bohm. They have all hit lefties with a high ISO and wOBA in the last 30 days.

Meanwhile, with their projected lineup, Toronto has hit a .165 ISO and wOBA of .316 against righties over the last 30 days.

That’s why the Phillies vs Blue Jays odds for Game 1 slightly favors the Phillies. Philadelphia is -108, while the Blue Jays are -1 at home. Furthermore, the total is 8, with the Under juiced to -125. I’d side with the Phillies here.

Game 2

Aaron Nola vs. Kevin Gausman
Wednesday, 7:07 p.m. ET

Aaron Nola will get the call for the Phillies in the second matchup. Nola has allowed a .200 ISO and wOBA of .328 to his last 126 batters. However, like Wheeler, he’s earned a high strikeout rate and has given up a low walk rate.

Lefties have hit a .226 ISO against Nola over the last month. However, the Blue Jays will have more righties than lefties in the lineup.

He’ll take on Kevin Gausman of the Blue Jays. Gausman has struck out over 28% of batters in the last 30 days and has walked under 4%. He’s also held teams to a .125 ISO and wOBA of .303.

Philadelphia has hit a .166 ISO and wOBA of .317 against righties over the last month. Only Bryson Stott and Kyle Schwarber have been consistent against righties in the previous 30 days.

Baseball scores typically go under when Wheeler and Gausman pitch for their respective teams. Grab the Under in this matchup.