Phillies vs Brewers Series Preview: Milwaukee Clings to Division Lead

The Philadelphia Phillies visit the Milwaukee Brewers for a three-game series beginning Friday. Both teams are looking to solidify their hold on postseason berths. The Phillies have no shot at catching Atlanta for the NL East division title, but they do have a five-game edge in the Major League Baseball standings wildcard race. The Brewers lead the NL Central by three games and are also up by five games in the wild card standings. The Phillies vs Brewers series preview notes a solid pitching MLB matchup in the opener.

The Phillies will send Zack Wheeler to the mound to face Freddy Peralta. Philadelphia is -125 and the total is 7.5-over (-115). Wheeler is 10-6 on the season with a 3.59 and the Phillies are 16-10 when he starts. On the road, Philadelphia is 7-6 with Wheeler on the hill. Peralta is 11-8 with a 3.95 ERA. Milwaukee is 15-10 when Peralta starts and 10-4 at home. Peralta lost his lone start as a home underdog this season.

Philadelphia is 74-59 and 33 on the road. The Phillies are 34-32 against teams at .500 or better. The Brewers are also 74-59, going 38-27 at home and 38-38 when playing a team at .500 or better.

The Phillies hold a good-sized offensive edge. Philadelphia is No. 4 in the MLB team stats in batting average and No. 9 in runs scored. Philadelphia pitchers have done well, with the team No. 11 in team ERA. The Phillies have converted 36 of 56 save opportunities.

The Brewers are No. 8 in team ERA, although their 3.94 is just ahead of Philadelphia’s 3.95 ERA, so for all purposes the teams are even in pitching. Milwaukee has converted 40 of 59 save opportunities. The Brewers are No. 18 in team batting average and No. 12 in runs scored.

Friday’s Game

Wheeler gets a little bit of an edge over Peralta in terms of pitching numbers, but the Brewers get it right back due to their home record compared to the Phillies‘ record on the road. For all practical purposes, this game is a toss-up. You can make a case for either team and not really be wrong.

Neither pitcher was on the mound when the teams met in July, as Milwaukee went 2-1 in Philadelphia and all three games were under the total. In terms of value, the Brewers offer a little bit in the game. The Brewers have been tough with Peralta at home and getting plus odds helps make the difference. It shouldn’t be one of your best MLB bets today, but the Brewers hold a slight edge.

Saturday’s Game

The Phillies vs Brewers series preview has Aaron Nola pitching for the Phillies. The Brewers haven’t named a starting pitcher for the game. Adrian Houser has followed Peralta in the rotation the last three games, but he was placed on the 15-day disabled list. Wade Miley would be the logical choice since the Brewers were off Thursday, but Milwaukee has Miley penciled in for Sunday. Eric Lauer is a possibility for the Brewers, as is Janson Junk. Milwaukee’s top prospect is Robert Grasser and he could be called up.

Regardless of who the Brewers send to the mound, Nola will be favored even though he’s not pitching up to his normal standards. Nola is 12-8 with a 4.30 ERA. The Phillies are 15-12 when he starts and totals are 16-10-1 with him on the mound. The game landed under the total the last time Nola pitched. But just once have the Phillies gone under the total two straight games with him on the mound. The Phils are 7-1 in totals when Nola went under the total in his previous start. Take the over in this one.

Sunday’s Game

The Phillies vs Brewers series preview notes a battle of left-handed starters on Sunday, as Ranger Suarez and Wade Miley take the mound. Suarez is just 2-6 with a 3.88 ERA. Philadelphia is 9-8 when he starts. He returns after missing about three weeks. Miley is 7-3 with a 3.17 ERA. The Brewers are 11-7 when he starts.

The Phillies are 25-18 against left-handers on the MLB season, scoring 5.09 runs per game. Against right-handers, Philadelphia is averaging 4.79 runs per game. The Brewers have gone 17-21 against left-handers and are scoring just 3.21 runs. Against right-handers, Milwaukee is scoring 4.84 runs per game, so there’s a definite drop-off against southpaws. That’s reason enough to back the Phillies in the series finale.

For MLB betting news, Phillies vs Brewers odds analysis, and more, visit Point Spreads Sports Magazine.

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