Reds vs Cubs Preview: Sellers? No More, Says Chicago

After taking over first place in the National League Central, the Cincinnati Reds will visit the division rival Chicago Cubs for a pivotal four-game set at Wrigley Field.

In Monday’s series opener, Chicago is -1.5 (+165) on the run line but a -117 favorite to win outright, with Cincinnati at +107. Cincinnati is +1.5 (-195) on the run line. The total is eight flat. Read on as we break down the odds in our Reds vs Cubs preview.

Sellers No More

With an 8-2 mark over their last 10 games, the Chicago Cubs appear to have reversed course on their plans to sell off valuable veterans ahead of Tuesday’s MLB trade deadline. That means keeping outfielder Cody Bellinger, along with starting pitcher Marcus Stroman.

The recent hot streak has propelled them to a 53-52 record, 4.0 games out of the NL Central and 3.5 games behind the Miami Marlins and Milwaukee Brewers for the second and third wild card spots. For a team that was something of an afterthought in spring training, it’s a stark turnaround. Since then, the Cubs’ odds to win the division have shrunk from +600 to +500.

Bellinger’s resurgence has been key. The former MVP, who signed a one-year, $17.5 million contract after he was non-tendered by the Los Angeles Dodgers this past offseason, has rebounded to hit .314 with 15 home runs, 46 RBI and 12 stolen bases. In holding onto the 28-year-old Bellinger, the Cubs essentially removed the best bat from the trade market.

Reds’ Resurgence Continues

The Cincinnati Reds continue to be among the best surprises in the MLB power rankings. In beating the Dodgers 9-0 Sunday, the Reds improved to 58-49 and leapfrogged the Brewers (57-49) for a half-game lead in the NL Central. While Milwaukee is still a -130 favorite, the Reds are next in line at +165, markedly lower than their +6600 spring training odds.

Rookie sensation Elly De La Cruz went 4-for-5 with a homer. The 21-year-old shortstop — whose +1200 NL Rookie of the Year odds are a distant second to Arizona Diamondbacks outfielder Corbin Carroll, at -1000 — also scored twice. Over the previous week, De La Cruz had batted just .192.

Prior to the game, the Reds placed second baseman Jonathan India on the 10-day injured list with left foot plantar fasciitis. Outfielder Stuart Fairchild was called up from Triple-A Louisville to take his place on the roster. The 2021 Rookie of the Year was hitting .251 with 14 homers and 52 RBI this season. India’s injury comes at a crucial time, as the Reds had been dangling his name in trade talks.

Odds Outlook

The Reds have been the most profitable team in baseball for bettors, with a 70-37 record against the run line. They’ve covered 69.8% of the time on the road, second behind only the Baltimore Orioles (73.1%). The Cubs have fared quite well in that regard, too, as evidenced by their 59-49 record ATS, including 27-26 at home.

Notably, the Reds are 4-1 straight up against Chicago this season. That’s important to remember as you assess the MLB odds in our Reds vs Cubs preview.

Game 1

• Marcus Stroman vs Andrew Abbott (Monday, 8:05 p.m. ET)

In registering a solid 3.51 ERA and 1.20 WHIP, Stroman has set himself up for another nice payday this winter. The right-hander and free-agent-to-be is tied for second in baseball with 10 wins and is 18th in innings with 125.2. That’s despite a rough July in which he’s allowed 22 runs (21 earned) in 23.2 innings.

Stroman opposes Abbott, who is 6-2 with a 1.90 over his first 10 big league starts. The rookie left-hander has struck out 66 batters over 61.2 innings, showcasing the potential that made him one of MLB Pipeline’s Top 100 prospects.

Game 2

• Justin Steele vs Ben Lively (Tuesday, 8:05 p.m. ET)

Steele has quietly been one of the best pitchers in baseball. He’s tied for the MLB lead in wins (11) and ranks fourth in ERA (2.87). He’s struck out 100 in 109.2 innings. Notably, his worst start this season came May 26 against the Reds, in which he gave up six runs (five earned) on 10 hits over 3.2 frames in a 9-0 loss. The 28-year-old southpaw faces Lively, who is 4-6 with a 3.76 ERA.

Game 3

• TBD vs Brandon Williamson (Wednesday, 8:05 p.m. ET)

Williamson is 3-2 with a 4.48 ERA over his first 13 starts since being promoted from Triple-A Louisville. The 25-year-old left-hander allowed four runs over 4.1 innings in an 8-5 win against Chicago on May 27. Chicago has yet to announce a starter, which may affect the odds in our Reds vs Cubs preview.

Game 4

• Jameson Taillon vs Luke Weaver (Thursday, 8:05 p.m. ET)

July has easily been Taillon’s best month as a Cub. He’s turned in a 2.67 ERA in five starts, far better than his season ERA of 5.46. That’s the fourth-highest among qualified starters. He faces Weaver, who owns an unsightly 6.80 ERA and 1.60 WHIP. Home runs (22 allowed in 86 innings) have been a big problem for the Reds right-hander.

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