Mariners vs D’Backs Preview: Can Arizona Rebound From Poor Second Half Start?

Diamondbacks Need More Starting Pitching

July 28, 2023 93 4 minutes readMLB Picks & Parlays

Mariners vs D'Backs Preview: Can Arizona Rebound From Poor Second Half Start? — Christian Petersen/Getty Images/AFP

The Arizona Diamondbacks have lost some ground in the National League West. Throughout most of the first half of the season, the Diamondbacks were MLB Leaders of the NL West and very high in the MLB Power Rankings.

However, the Diamondbacks have gone 3-7 in their last ten games and have fallen to third place in the divisional standings. Arizona is still 55-48 and will likely compete for an NL Wild Card spot in the second half of the season.

Meanwhile, the Seattle Mariners are fourth in the American League West. The Mariners have gone 6-4 in their last ten games and are two games above .500. But it will still be difficult for the Mariners to earn another playoff berth this season. The Mariners are behind the Tampa Bay Rays, Houston Astros, Toronto Blue Jays, Boston Red Sox, New York Yankees, and the Los Angeles Angels for the three Wild Card spots.

If the Mariners struggle to win their series against the Diamondbacks over the weekend, the Mariners could look into selling after all.

Read our Mariners vs D’Backs preview for this weekend’s interleague matchup between two above .500 ball clubs.

Arizona’s Going For It

The Diamondbacks haven’t been this good in quite some time. However, unlike larger market teams like the Los Angeles Dodgers, San Diego Padres, and the San Francisco Giants, they also have a budget. It makes things more challenging for the Diamondbacks to compete. But they’ve got young talent performing at a high level and think they’ve got enough to compete for a World Series championship this season.

The Diamondbacks need pitching at the MLB Trade Deadline. Zac Gallen and Merrill Kelly have been superb for Arizona but still need a third reliable starter.

It sounds like the Diamondbacks will consider moves, even if it means getting rid of promising young talent.

Seattle Needs Hitting

The Mariners are in a weird spot heading into this weekend’s series. They’re sitting at 52-50 on the season and would have to leapfrog multiple American League teams to get into a Wild Card spot in the American League.

Seattle’s starting rotation will stay intact. The Mariners need bats if they’re going to try and compete for a playoff spot.

The offense has been inconsistent against righties. The usual lineup has struck out 30.3% of the time against righties over the last month. That’s ridiculously high and won’t help them earn a playoff spot. They’ll face two righty starters this weekend.

Game 1

Logan Gilbert vs. Tommy Henry
Friday, 9:40 p.m. ET

Logan Gilbert will begin the three-game series for the Mariners. He’s got a 3.88 ERA on the season and has kept walks down to 4.4% this year.

Gilbert has held teams to a .285 wOBA throughout the season but has had difficulty against lefties over the last month.

He’ll look to go toe-to-toe with Tommy Henry of the Diamondbacks. Henry is a left-handed pitcher allowing a .049 ISO and wOBA of .278 to his last 69 righties.

The Mariners are extremely inconsistent against left-handed pitching. Henry should pitch well. Meanwhile, the Diamondbacks’ typical lineup has a .288 wOBA over the last month against righties. Those MLB stats are why the Diamondbacks have fallen off a bit. Therefore, we likely won’t see many runs in this one.

The Mariners are sitting at -126 on the road in this matchup. Meanwhile, the Diamondbacks are at +116, with the total sitting at 9. The Under is juiced to -115.

Let’s look at Mariners vs D’Backs preview for the other two games below.

Game 2

Bryan Woo vs. Brandon Pfaadt
Saturday, 8:10 p.m. ET

Bryan Woo is the most inconsistent pitcher on the Seattle Mariners’ staff. Woo has dominated right-handed batters this season. However, lefties are hitting a .455 ISO and wOBA of .556 against Woo. Woo’s strikeouts are high against righties and low against lefties, and his walks are also high against lefties and low against righties.

The Diamondbacks will likely have seven lefties in their lineup against these Mariners’ righties throughout the series. Arizona’s Ketel Marte and Corbin Carroll are two lefties that can destroy Woo in this matchup.

However, the Mariners have some potential against Brandon Pfaadt too. Pfaadt has allowed a .429 ISO and wOBA of .476 against his last 39 batters faced. He’s had multiple stints in the Major Leagues, and while he’s kept walks down, his strikeouts are low, and he’s giving up plenty of power.

You can expect more runs in this game.

Game 3

Luis Castillo vs. Merrill Kelly
Sunday, 4:10 p.m. ET

The Mariners will send out Luis Castillo for the series finale. He’s struck out over 25% of batters over the last 30 days and has limited walks to 2% in that span. He’s allowed many extra-base hits to lefties but has limited line drives to both sides of the plate at a high rate.

On the other hand, Merrill Kelly will take the mound for the Diamondbacks. He’s a right-hander who returned to the mound on July 25th against the Cardinals. Kelly allowed four hits and one run and had five strikeouts with 86 pitches in his first start in over 30 days. Kelly’s one piece that should help Arizona get back on track.
This matchup should be another low-scoring game.
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