Marlins vs Rays Odds: Are The Florida Teams Falling Apart?

Florida baseball is falling apart in the second half of the season. The Tampa Bay Rays led the AL East throughout the entire first half of the season. They’re now sitting two games behind the Orioles for first place in the division after going 3-7 in their last ten games.

On the other hand, the Miami Marlins might’ve won on Sunday, but they’ve gone 2-8 in their last ten games and wouldn’t make the playoffs in the NL Wild Card if the playoffs began today.

Let’s look at the Marlins vs Rays odds for this two-game interleague series.

What Happened to Miami?

The Miami Marlins ended an eight-game losing streak with a win over the Rockies on Sunday, 3-2. The Marlins didn’t pitch terribly, but the offense wasn’t producing during that eight-game losing stretch.

The Marlins haven’t scored more than five runs since July 9, and July 9 was the last game before the All-Star break. The Marlins are getting on base against lefties a little bit better than against righties. However, Miami has mainly hit against right-handed pitchers in the second half of the season.

The MLB leaders in the NL Wild Card heading into the All-Star break were the Marlins. But that’s no longer the case now. The Marlins vs Rays Odds will also favor the Rays in both series games.

The Rays Need Help!

The Tampa Bay Rays have always been a low-spending team in the MLB. They’ve found ways to win without breaking the bank.

It’s the model every team wants to use, but only a few teams have succeeded.

The Rays have lost eight last nine games while scoring no more than five runs in any game during that stretch. The Rays won many close matchups earlier this season. But now those same close games are not finishing in their favor. Tampa Bay needs some help. They likely won’t add anyone to the team yet, but they’ll buy at the MLB Trade Deadline. Their needs include starting pitching and a bat or two that can contribute immediately.

The Rays have their ace on the mound for Game 1. Tyler Glasnow has struck out 39.2% of his last 120 batters and has held teams to a .133 ISO and wOBA of .269 in the previous 30 days. He’s allowed just four runs in his last three outings and has earned at least seven strikeouts in each of those three games.

On the other hand, the Marlins will send out Edward Cabrera. He’s got a 4.50 ERA on the year and has struggled badly against lefties over the last month. Cabrera has given up a .429 ISO and wOBA of .486 to his previous nine lefties. Since he just returned from injury, it’s not the most significant sample size. But it’s something to keep an eye on.

Meanwhile, the Tampa Bay offense has hit a .170 ISO and wOBA of .302 against righties over the last 30 days. That’s an average number, proving that the Rays likely need another hitter or two at the trade deadline. Isaac Paredes and Brandon Lowe have consistently contributed to the Rays against righties.

The Tampa Bay Rays are currently -165 favorites at home against the Marlins for Game 1 of the series. The Marlins vs Rays odds for the total are at 7, with the over-juiced to -120.

The Tays have won nearly 75% of the time when favored by -170 or more by sportsbooks. They’ve been a great baseball betting team when listed as heavy favorites and certainly have the advantage in this game with Glasnow on the mound.

Zach Eflin will get the ball for the Rays. He’s familiar with the NL East from his time with the Philadelphia Phillies. Eflin has done well limiting walks and has a WHIP of .99 on the season.

In the last month, he’s only allowed a .143 ISO and wOBA of .300 against his previous 112 batters and has induced 46.9% of grounders while allowing only 16% of fly balls. Eflin had a hiccup against the Royals on July 16 but pitched much better against the Orioles in his last start. Eflin added eight strikeouts in seven innings with just two hits.

The Marlins barely walk and haven’t hit for much power against righties.

On the flip side, former CY Young winner Sandy Alcantara will get the call for the Marlins. He’s 3-9 with a 4.70 ERA this season and hasn’t been like last year’s campaign. He’s watched lefties hit a .208 ISO and wOBA of .384 over the previous month and has earned under 20% of strikeouts throughout the season.

The Rays will likely get some big hits from Brandon Lowe in this series. He’s hit a .229 ISO and wOBA of .367 against righties over the last month as a left-handed hitter. He’ll be a difference-maker against those right-handed pitchers for the Marlins.

 

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