Rangers vs Astros Series Preview: Texas Looks to Maintain Grip on AL West

The American League West-leading Texas Rangers will visit the Houston Astros Monday to begin a crucial three-game set. Texas opens the series -1.5 (+160) on the run line and is at -105 to win outright, with Houston priced at -105. The projected total is 9, with the Under juiced to -105/-115.

Houston is 4-3 against Texas this season. Read on for our Rangers vs Astros series preview.

Texas Hanging Tight

The Texas Rangers continue to defy expectations. After opening the season as a +1000 longshot, the Rangers have roared to a division-best 59-41 start. The result? They now are a clear -135 favorite.

There’s reason to believe they can stay atop the AL West too, especially with a lineup that ranks among the best in baseball. The Rangers, fueled by All-Stars Jonah Heim, Marcus Semien, Josh Jung, Corey Seager, and Adolis Garcia, lead the majors in runs scored and rank sixth in homers.

Texas is 7-2 since the All-Star break, during which it has averaged 5.4 runs per game. It lost two of three games to the Los Angeles Dodgers over the weekend, snapping a six-game winning streak.

Garcia has been Texas’ biggest run producer, with 24 home runs and 80 RBI, tying Atlanta Braves first baseman Matt Olson for the MLB lead. However, Garcia is in a bit of a funk at the moment, hitting just .176 with one RBI over the last seven days on the MLB schedule. Garcia sat out Sunday’s 8-4 victory over the Dodgers with a hand injury, one day after being hit by a pitch. Be sure to monitor his status when assessing the odds in our Rangers vs Astros series preview.

Earlier Saturday, Texas placed Seager on the 10-day injured list with a sprained thumb. Seager, who jammed his hand on a head-first slide against his former team, is hitting .350 with 15 homers and 58 RBI. He’d lead the AL in batting average if he qualified, however, Seager missed 31 games earlier this season with a strained hamstring.

Heee’s Back

Houston Astros star Yordan Alvarez, who has been out since June 8 with an oblique strain, is expected to be activated off the IL on Monday. Alvarez is currently rehabbing with Triple-A Sugar Land.

Alvarez’s return would be a major boost for the Astros (56-44), who sit 3.0 games behind Texas in the MLB standings. The two-time AL All-Star was batting .277 with 17 homers and a .978 OPS. He led the majors with 55 RBI at the time of his injury.

The Astros will apparently have to wait a bit longer to get back second baseman Jose Altuve. Also on the IL with an oblique injury, Altuve was hitting .264 with six homers and 18 RBI.

While Houston’s divisional odds have dropped to +110, it remains a strong +400 pick to return to the World Series. Currently, only the Tampa Bay Rays (+250) have shorter pennant odds. The Astros are also +750 to defend their title, fourth-best in baseball.

Odds Outlook

Texas’ 59-41 record against the run line is third-best in the majors behind the Cincinnati Reds (65-36) and Baltimore Orioles (59-40). Houston has also been profitable in the baseball betting market, with a 51-49 record ATS. However, the Astros are just 20-27 ATS at home. Keep that in mind when analyzing the Rangers vs Astros series preview odds.

Bielak is 5-5 with a 3.46 ERA. Control (26 walks in 65 innings) has been a slight issue, though Bielak owns a 1.02 ERA in July. He opposes Gray, who is 6-5 with a 3.31 ERA. Gray allowed five runs over six innings in a 5-3 loss to Houston on June 30. The right-hander also had an abbreviated stint against the Astros on April 15, in which he left after two innings with an injury.

The 28-year-old France has been steady as a rookie, registering a 3.13 ERA in 13 starts. Notably, France has gone at least six innings in eight of his last nine outings. Nathan Eovaldi was in line to start for Texas, but the Rangers opted to instead skip the All-Star right-hander due to diminished velocity. Eovaldi is tied for the MLB lead with 11 wins and is second with a 2.69 ERA. Texas has not named a starter to replace him, though rookies Owen White and Cody Bradford are both logical candidates.

Valdez, Houston’s ace, is 8-5 with a 2.94 ERA, fifth-best in MLB. The left-hander has also struck out 133 in 122.1 innings, giving him the highest strikeout rate (9.8 K/9) of his career. He is +300 to win AL Cy Young, the second-best price behind New York Yankees star Gerrit Cole (+225).

Valdez matched a season-high with five runs allowed (one earned) over six innings in a 9-1 loss to Texas on April 16. The Rangers will counter with a southpaw of their own in Heaney, who is 6-6 with a 4.58 ERA. In that same game against Valdez, Heaney threw five shutout innings.

For MLB betting news, odds, analysis, and more, visit Point Spreads Sports Magazine.

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