Twins vs Guardians Series Preview: It’s Now or Never for Cleveland

When you’re trailing a team in the MLB baseball standings, the best way to make-up ground is to face that team. The Cleveland Guardians find themselves in that spot beginning Monday, as they host the first-place Minnesota for a three-game series. Minnesota has a 5.0-game lead over Cleveland entering the series. Cleveland can’t afford to do any worse than 2-1. For the Guardians, 3-0 would be even better. The Twins vs Guardians series preview has Pablo Lopez and Lucas Giolito as Monday’s schedule starters. Minnesota is -129 with a total of 8.0.

When Giolito was traded to the Los Angeles Angels in late July he expected to be part of a playoff battle. He probably didn’t think it would be in Cleveland. But once the Angels started dumping salaries, the Guardians were quick to pounce. Cleveland claimed three players from the Angeles. Giolito will be a free agent after this season and he wasn’t his best with the Angels. For the season, Giolito is 7-11 with a 4.45 ERA. His teams have won just 8 of 27 starts and have dropped nine of his last 10 starts.

Lopez has been solid for the Twins, going 9-7 with a 3.72 ERA. Minnesota is 16-11 when he starts. The Twins are 1-1 against Cleveland with him on the mound.

Minnesota hasn’t been a great road team, going 31-37. But Cleveland hasn’t been tearing it up at home, either. The Guardians are 35-34 when playing in Cleveland. The Guardians were 46-35 at home a year ago.

The Twins are 71-66 on the season, the lowest winning percentage of any division leader. The Guardians are 66-71 on the season. Cleveland is 10.5 games out in the wild card race, so it’s pretty much the division title or stay at home in the postseason.

Twins With Big Offensive Advantage

The Twins have a decided edge at the plate over the Guardians. Minnesota is No. 21 in team batting average, but No. 15 in runs scored. A big part of that is the Twins have decent power and are No. 6 in home runs.

The Guardians are No. 17 in team batting average, but just No. 27 in runs scored. Cleveland is dead last in MLB in home runs. Every other team has hit at least 23 more home runs than the Guardians.

Pitching between the two teams is pretty even, with the Guardians holding a slight edge. Cleveland is No. 6 in team ERA and have converted 40 of 65 save opportunities. The Twins are No. 9 in team ERA and are 32 for 59 in save attempts.

Monday’s Game

Giolito faced the Twins three times this year when he was with the White Sox and Chicago lost all three games. But you can’t blame Giolito for that. He allowed just 13 hits and two runs in 18 innings. The Chicago bullpen coughed up the lead all three times. While Lopez is 1-1 against the Guardians, he’s allowed 9 runs in 11 2/3 innings. Getting plus money with Giolito is too much to pass up in this spot. Use Cleveland +119 as one of Monday’s baseball picks.

Tuesday’s Game

The Twins vs Guardians series preview is showing Sonny Gray and Tanner Bibee as the starters on Tuesday. It’s a solid pitching MLB match-up, as Gray is 7-6 with a 2.92 ERA and Bibee is 10-3 with a 3.03 ERA. The Twins are just 12-15 when Gray starts. But he’s pitched well. Minnesota hasn’t given him a lot of run support at times this season. The Minnesota bullpen also hasn’t done Gray many favors this season.

The Guardians are 13-9 when Bibee starts, including last week’s 5-2 victory over Gray and the Twins on the road. Cleveland has split Bibee’s two starts against Minnesota. The Twins are 0-3 when Gray starts against the Guardians, being outscored 13-7. The game should be pretty close to even and the MLB score predictions favor Cleveland. You can’t fault anybody who backs Cleveland in this game.

Wednesday’s Game

The Twins vs Guardians series preview has Joe Ryan and Gavin Williams as the starters for Wednesday afternoon’s game. Ryan is 10-8 with a 4.20 ERA. Williams is 1-5 with an ERA of 3.46. The Twins are 13-11 when Ryan starts and 0-2 when he starts against Cleveland. But the Guardians won those games 2-0 and 2-1, so it’s no fault of Ryan.

Cleveland is 6-7 when Williams starts, so the Guardians are 5-2 in the games in which he didn’t earn a decision. He was on the mound in last week’s 4-2 victory over the Twins in his only start against Minnesota this season. But he pitched just an inning before leaving with knee soreness. The under is worth a look in this spot.

For MLB betting news, odds analysis, and more, visit Point Spreads Sports Magazine.

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